Weekly angst: Next week environment ministers from 190 countries convene in Bali, Indonesia, to start working on a global climate agreement – the follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol. The future of the planet hinges on what they decide over the next two years.
Experts agree we need radical greenhouse gas cuts within 8 years if there is to be any hope of averting dangerous climate change, said Rajenda Pachauri, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But there are many obstacles to agreement. China, the U.S. and India, who will produce the most GHG in coming decades, don’t want others telling them what to do. Australia used to be with them, but new Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, elected Saturday, vowed to sign Kyoto. That leaves only guess who? of 38 industrialized countries refusing to sign the agreement to reduce GHG by 5-6% between 2008-2012.
The new agreement, which will start in 2013, should be finalized by the end of 2009, nations agree, in order to leave time for ratification. And some say they’ll probably negotiate around the Bush administration, hoping for a more agreeable president starting in January ’09. They’re likely to start on matters of easier agreement, like deforestation, adaptation (to changes that can’t be stopped) and sharing of clean technology, and wait until 2009 to determine emissions cuts.
The Kyoto Protocol
First a bit of background on how Kyoto is doing: After an initial sharp drop in GHG during the 1990s (due largely to a breakdown in Soviet bloc economies), emissions for the 36 nations that are obligated by the treaty have been on the upswing and are now just 2.8% below 1990 levels and rising. Yet the UN announced earlier this month that it believes the Kyoto goals can be met by 2012, and that if all the policies put in place work as planned, they could end up down 11% by that date. A $30 million carbon-trading market (likely to double next year), carbon taxes and more renewable energy sources will help accomplish this goal, the UN says.
There are great variations among the countries, with Spain, Portugal and Italy doing the worst job of curtailing emissions. Japan recently announced it needed to revise its plan to meet its goal, and will do so by March. In the period 1990-2005, the U.S., which did not sign the treaty, increased emissions 16% and will likely be up 26% by 2012, according to the UN.
Although 172 nations signed the treaty, developing countries such as China and India were not required to cut emissions by the Kyoto Accord, which is why the U.S. said it refused to ratify the agreement.
What countries are saying pre-Bali
*An East Asian Summit agreed this month “to stabilize emissions at a level that would prevent dangerous … interference with the climate system.” The 16 countries, which included Australia and New Zealand, as well as China and India, said “all should play a role based on common but differentiated responsibilities” and that industrial countries “should continue to play a leading role.” They set no numerical targets but vowed to improve energy efficiency through regional cooperation to develop cost-effective carbon reduction, cleaner fossil fuel technologies and biofuels, as well as nuclear power and reforestation. They aim to increase forest cover in Asia by at least 37.5 million acres.
*China reiterated its pledge to reduce energy intensity (use per unit of GDP) 20% in 5 years. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao also told reporters at the summit his country would seek to freeze key pollution emissions at 2005 levels. China says the U.S. must act first, because it has much higher per-capita emissions. China, which takes global warming seriously because of recent floods and drought, also notes that 23% of its emissions come from making goods that are exported to the U.S. and elsewhere.
*U.S. President George Bush wants an agreement that focuses heavily on technology development. He thinks the biggest polluters should set their own national policies. A Congressional delegation headed by Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and John Kerry (D-Mass.), however, will advocate for mandatory caps.
*Indonesia, host to the conference, wants countries with substantial rainforest to get financial incentives to stopping deforestation – to make up for the money they will lose if they stop chopping down trees for timber, pulp and palm oil. Credits on the carbon market could amount to as much as $400 million to $2 billion annually. Indonesia hopes to rally other rainforest countries like Brazil, Costa Rica, Malaysia and Congo behind the cause. Deforestation accounts for 20% of CO2 emissions globally, more than the transportation sector.
*Britain’s Prime Minister Gordon Brown vows to lead a “green tech revolution” in his country and said any international agreement should include “binding emissions caps” for the industrial countries and a cut in worldwide emissions of at least 50% by 2050. He said we must keep the temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F).
*Africa, the “forgotten” continent, will need substantial funds to adapt to climate change – especially lack of water and food. Under Kyoto, most money for climate change projects so far has ended up going to China and very little to Africa.
*OPEC countries agreed this month to come up with $750 million for carbon-capture research, but said the industrialized nations must take the lead.
*Australia’s new prime minister, Rudd, expects to attend the conference, one of few heads of state planning to do so. He has made averting catastrophic climate change his top priority. Australia, which has the highest per-capita emissions, is suffering an unprecedented drought that is damaging its agriculture economy.
What to expect
The December meeting, with 20,000 delegates, will mainly set up the framework, timetable and agenda for international negotiations, said Yvo de Boer, head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat. But there is an urgency to get started, he said. The world will replace 40% of its power generating capacity in the next 5-10 years, and China is building 1 or 2 more coal-fired plants each week. Once those new plants are built, they will last for decades and it will be hard to avoid “climate change running out of control,” he said.
(Sources: Reuters, PlanetArk, Associated Press, Greenwire, E&D Daily, The Independent UK)
Congressional round-up
House Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.), a friend to the auto industry, has said he wants three changes to the Senate bill setting corporate fuel economy (CAFE) standards:
• Separate cars from light trucks
• Maintain the distinction between foreign and domestic cars.
• Give automakers enough time to comply with the new requirements.
He also has many questions about the renewable electricity standards (RES) and wants biofuels under the 2005 Energy Policy Act instead of the new energy bill. Dingell is a major figure in energy bill negotiations, which continue through the recess, with final language anticipated by the end of this week and a vote Dec. 4 or 5. But don’t hold your breath. This is a tough one to put together.
(Source: Greenwire)
News in brief
Bear-human confrontations result from warmer weather
Temperatures as high as 10 degrees above normal and a berry-killing drought have caused more run-ins between bears and people this year in the West. In Colorado alone, 59 “nuisance bears” have been killed, a record surpassing 55 in 2002. The warmer weather found bears looking for food in cities in late fall, rather than settling into their dens for winter. Wildlife managers will meet in January to look for solutions. One possibility: more licenses for hunting bears. (Source: Greenwire)
Wind power will triple globally by 2015, new report says
Worldwide wind power will triple to 290 gigawatts from 91, according to a recent report from Emerging Energy Research, a renewable energy consultant. North America’s capacity is expected to double from to 60GW from 30, while Asia’s goes up to 100GW from 40. The projected increase here will be due to federal tax breaks and some states’ renewal portfolio standards (RPS). In Texas, the leader in wind power, the main incentive is a need to replace natural gas. Offshore wind is big in Europe but has lagged here because the U.S. Mineral Management Service has not yet created permitting guidelines under the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Turbine manufacturers have increased their capacity fourfold in the past three years, the report said. Meanwhile, the American Wind Energy Association predicts that by 2030 the U.S. likely will generate 20% of its electricity from wind. This assumes a half-trillion dollar investment over 20 years. (Source: Greenwire)
A new technique in Norway could capture 95% of CO2
A Norwegian company says tests of a new carbon-capture technique have successfully removed 95% of CO2 and could be used commercially in new plants. “A competitive coal-fired power plant could be built today,” the CEO of Sargas technology group told Reuters. Because it works under pressure, only a few existing plants, in Europe and Japan, could use the technique. And companies would need government help for storage of the gases, likely in oil and gas fields, the company said. A different system for capture, using chilled ammonia, will be tested in Wisconsin soon. Coal is the Number 2 source of energy, after oil. (Source: Reuters)
Xtreme weather watch
Cyprus faces an unprecedented water crisis, after suffering 3 years of drought. The island nation’s reservoirs are less than 9% full and may run out by the end of next month. Due to rising temperatures, less rain and more evaporation, runoff is down 40% since the ‘70s. “Climate change is clearly evidenced in Cyprus,” one official said. A third energy-intensive desalinization plant is due online this summer, but that is not a good solution because of added greenhouse gases, officials said. The country will drill to find pockets of underground water and faces more cuts to agriculture. In 1960 Cyprus was mainly an agriculture economy; now farming is just 2.8% of GDP. (Reuters)
China’s water shortage in its main rice-growing area is the result of an 86% drop in rain in Hunan province since the start of October. Major rivers are at historic lows there and in neighboring Jiangxi province. Meteorologists in China blamed the increase in extreme weather partly on climate change. (Greenwire)
A tiny Tennessee town is getting by on a few hours of water a day since its spring ran dry, a result of the record drought sweeping through the Southeast. Each night the mayor of Orme opens a valve in the water tower, so people can fill jars and wash before faucets run dry. Local businesses and churches have donated bottled water and a federal grant will fund a pipe to bring more water from Bridgeport, Ala. (Reuters)
Take action
Last chance to tell your elected representatives in Washington to pass a strong energy bill including 35 mph CAFE standards and 15% RPS by 2020. Take a minute and call the Capitol switchboard, at 202-224-3121, to reach your senators and rep. The bill may go to a vote as early as Dec.4. You can make a difference. Please take the time to call.
With cold weather here (for most of us), find out what you can do to save energy and keep your heating bill down. Go to http://sierraclub.typepad.com/greenlife/2007/11/on-a-winters-da.html
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