Weekly angst

Bali delegates need leadership; IPCC report too dense
The latest, synthesized report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released Saturday, is a disappointment because it’s so hard to read. This is the report that is supposed to be concise and specific and light a fire under delegates at the big international climate forum in Bali in two weeks. The idea was to provide a compass for decision-makers on how to deal with carbon emissions and adapt to a changing climate. There’s a lot there, but most of it is in vague, theoretical and scientific language and hard to fathom.

For example, one of the clearest sections is a list of reasons to be concerned:
* risks to unique and threatened systems
* risks of extreme weather events (that one’s clear)
* distribution of impacts and vulnerability
* aggregate impacts and
* large-scale singularities.

You get my drift.

It’s just too wordy and hard to cut through, except perhaps some of the charts (though they are wordy too). I hope someone has condensed it into a 15-minute Power Point presentation. They want all the delegates to read it and use it, but I doubt anyone will make it to the end, and that’s too bad because the end is where the important stuff is, at least for the group that will be negotiating the follow-up agreement to Kyoto. I’ll paraphrase it for you:

* If we want to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gases at a safe level, we can do it. But we need to start soon.
* Delay increases the risk of severe impacts on the climate.
* Without substantial investment and effective technology transfer among countries, we may not be able to significantly reduce emissions.

The comments about the report were much more clear than the written word.

“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late,” said Rajendra Pachauri, who heads IPCC. “What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” He also noted that the 5–year study doesn’t reflect the recent speedup in climate change, so we’d “better start with intervention much sooner.”

Negotiating an agreement
So thousands of delegates from around the world will head to Bali in early December, with this obtuse 23-page summary to guide them. All will no doubt be thinking about their own needs, so it’s hard to see how they will ever find agreement to substantially reduce Global Warming without strong leadership from someone.

Europe, which is already feeling the impact of climate change, is pushing for strong, mandated reductions. China, the U.S. and India, the top GHG polluters over the next couple of decades, are resisting any mandate that forces them to meet a specific goal (though the U.S. will have a second, Congressional delegation with a different view).

Countries with rainforests want credit given for not cutting them down. Island nations are afraid they will disappear under the rising sea. Oil and coal producing nations are worried about the selling their natural resources. Developing countries want cheap, available fuel (mostly coal) to stoke their booming economies that are lifting people out of poverty.

All these delegates will be starting negotiations with the goal of finding something they can all live with by 2009 (because they know there’s a problem out there somewhere they should deal with). There will likely be a lot of give and take, in an effort to get everyone onboard.

It’s a lot like what’s happening in Washington, D.C., as those who see the coming impact of climate change negotiate with the coal states, the “oil patch” states, the auto state and the skeptics to find a compromise that will get enough votes.

The problem, of course, is there’s no negotiating with Mother Nature.

(Source: http://www.IPCC.ch , New York Times, Greenwire)

Congressional round-up

3 Western govs tout Lieberman-Warner as fed officials recess
Calif. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and the governors of Utah and Montana have made a TV ad calling for Congress to pass the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill. They point out their states have set ambitious targets to reduce GHG and it’s time for Congress to do likewise. The bill is in the Environment and Public Works Committee, and is scheduled for a vote Dec. 5 or 6. EPW chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) would like to strengthen it but warned her colleagues not to expect too much. Meanwhile, some Republican senators worry about energy prices and loss of job. The EPA and the Energy Information Administration, asked by the sponsors to analyze the costs and benefits of the bill, said they can’t do so before year’s end. But the Clean Air Task Force and a Duke University team have found its impact on the economy to be negligible. Congress is now on recess until Dec. 3. (Source: E&E Daily)

Energy bill might be split in two to get the votes – Durbin
As negotiations continue on reconciling two energy bills passed by different chambers this summer, Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said one option is to send two bills to the floor for a vote: one containing the Senate’s CAFE standards of 35 mpg by 2020, the other with the House-passed RES of 15% renewable power by 2020. That may be the best way to get the requisite 60 votes in the Senate, some say. Oil industry taxes remain an issue, according to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who also said a final deal should include something for the coal states pushing for coal-to-liquid, which releases more carbon than gasoline. Meanwhile, some senators want to move the biofuel standards (RSF) from the energy bill to the farm bill, which would lose the energy bill some votes. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said it should remain in the energy bill. (Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM)

News in brief

Mediterranean could become a saltier, stagnant sea
Europe is heating up faster than the rest of the world and Italian researchers fear the impact on the Mediterranean Sea will be devastating. Surface temperatures are increasing 1 degree per decade and the heat and salinity could eventually wipe out half the fish and plant species, scientists said at a recent climate conference in Rome. As the sea evaporates and become saltier, it could start flowing out to the Atlantic at Gibraltar instead of vice versa. And a decline in algae could mean the Mediterranean would absorb one-third less CO2, the scientists warned. (Source: Associated Press)

UN asks OPEC ministers to discuss climate change at summit
OPEC should look for ways to limit carbon emissions, Yvo deBoer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said last week. In response, OPEC officials said climate change is one of three topics the ministers would address at their summit in Riyadh over the weekend. “International action on climate change is a war against emissions, not a war against oil,” deBoer said. OPEC markets 40% of the world’s oil. He specifically suggested they look at funding research on carbon capture and sequestration and “put the first dollar on the table” so other nations would follow suit. OPEC Sec. Gen. Abdullah al-Badri turned it around a bit, saying if developed nations with the know-how and financial resources take the lead, “We’ll try to contribute.” (Source: PlanetArk)

Midwest governors strike regional cap-and-trade agreement
Six Midwest states and Manitoba, Canada, signed a pact last week to start a regional cap-and-trade program, starting in 2010. This brings the number of states in such agreements to 20. Similar pacts exist in the Northeast, Southwest and West. Signing on were Ill., Iowa, Kan., Mich., Minn. and Wis. Their goal is 60-80% reduction in GHG by 2050. Three other states – Ind., Ohio and S.D. – signed on as observers, while Mo., Neb. and N.D. did not sign at all. Details are still to be determined. At the same time, 8 states and Manitoba pledged to increase efficiency, renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage within a regional framework by 2010. (Source: E&E News PM)

London’s famous red buses will start turning ‘green’
London, England, is buying 10 hydrogen-powered buses, to help curb pollution and CO2 emissions. It will test two different types: 5 with fuel cells and 5 with hydrogen-burning internal combustion engines. The buses are costing about $2 million each. The mayor’s goal is to have 5% of all public sector vehicles on hydrogen by 2015. London has 8,000 buses, some of which are diesel hybrids. (Source: PlanetArk)

Xtreme weather watch

Winter forecast: much warmer than usual in NE, Midwest
Temperatures will be above normal starting in mid-December in the Midwest and Northeast, according to an Accuweather forecast. The Northeast, which was 7 degrees above normal in October, may see colder-than-usual temps over the next month, but January and February should be much warmer. The Pacific Northwest is expected to be colder than usual. The Southeast can expect continued drought, probably for a number of years, in part because of a warming trend in the Atlantic. La Niña is also a factor in the winter warmth. (PlanetArk)

Crocs on loose as more floods hit Vietnam, raise death toll
Hundred of crocodiles escaped from cages in Vietnam as floods swept through a breeding farm last week. Several were caught and shot. A new onslaught of rain raised the season’s official death toll to 332 by midweek, as 61,000 homes were submerged. A similar disaster in August left 1 million hungry. This year’s floods were some of the worst in decades. 2,500 foreign tourists were confined to hotels as roads and railways in the country were washed out. (PlanetArk)

Cyclone hits Bangladesh, 600,000 evacuated to shelters
Cyclone Sidr, the worst in a decade, swept across Bangladesh Thursday, driving hundreds of thousands to shelters and killing at least 3,000. The toll could go as high as 10,000 when outlying islands are reached. Low-lying Bangladesh is vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges and is predicted to be one of the places most in danger from rising seas due to Global Warming. About 10 million people live along the coastline. (Reuters, Associated Press)

Take action

Starting your holiday shopping? Think green. Some ideas: reusable shopping bags, reusable water bottles, a mass transit pass, “An Inconvenient Truth” DVD or book, a donation or membership to an organization that fights Global Warming (Sierra Club, League of Conservation Voters, Environmental Defense, Natural Resources Defense Council), CFL lightbulbs, anything organic. For more ideas, Check out: http://www.greenandmore.com.