Opening comment: NBC just had Green Week, calling attention to Global Warming. I didn’t see much of it, but I did look at CNBC now and then as the stock market fell off a cliff. And I witnessed at least 4 skeptics casting aspersions on Al Gore, the Natural Resources Defense Council and all who want to do something about Climate Change. One said it was “almost anti-capitalism.” Well, yeah. If capitalism means short-term greed trumps everything else: your children’s future, nature, health, caring about the well-being of people around the world, not wanting coastal cities to disappear … Arrrgh! May his Long Island summer home be swept away in the next storm surge! This is what we’re up against, folks, despite the number of corporations that are in the fight with us: short-sighted greed, and the blind ignorance that goes with it.


Weekly angst

World will still be hooked on fossil fuels in 2030 – IEA
Fossil fuels will still reign in 2030, the International Energy Agency said last week in its Annual World Energy Outlook. Oil will remain the single largest source of energy (32%), but will lose some ground to cheaper, more abundant coal (28%). Natural gas will come in third at 22%. Nuclear is seen shrinking to 5%, with biomass/waste at 9%, and other renewables and hydro each at 2%.

A 55% increase in energy use is expected by that date, mainly in Asia, where booming economic growth is lifting millions of people out of poverty.

Global temperature could soar
The average world temperature is expected to rise at least 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit), as emissions increase a projected 57%. That means we’ll exceed the IPCC-recommended limit of 450 ppm of CO2, which would result in a temperature increase of 2.4C (4.3F).

To achieve the recommended level, greenhouse gases would have to peak by 2015 (that’s just 8 years away) and then fall 50-80% by 2050, IEA said. This would require a massive energy-efficiency campaign, a switch to non-fossil fuels, and unprecedented technological advances at considerable cost.

Not very likely, says IEA.

Their most optimistic scenario is a 1% rise in GHG per year till 2030, resulting in a 5.4F peak temperature, then a steady decline. The most pessimistic scenario is for a 10.8F peak, if China and India continue their strong economic growth unabated. To put that in context, the average world temperature has grown just 1.44 degrees F in the 107 years since 1900, and that increase has caused melting glaciers and ice sheets, as well as permafrost retreat. A 10-degree rise would be cataclysmic.

China and India
“Staggering” economic growth in China and India, and throughout Asia, is the main reason for the expected future surge in GHG. China accounted for 58% of the increase from 2000-2006 and its share of world emissions will rise from 20% to 25%, though per capita emissions will still be less than half that of the U.S. By 2015, the 3 biggest GHG polluters will be, in order, China, the U.S. and India, the report said.

Keeping Global Warming within safe limits may be out of reach, the report said, in part because there is more talk than action in most countries. If governments did everything they are talking about, renewables could provide 17% of power, GHG could be held to an increase of 25%, and the average temperature would rise 5.4F.

“Unprecedented political action” is needed to keep the planet at a safe level, said IEA. And that will be costly, no doubt about it. For example, the world will have to retire some fossil fuel plants prematurely, at an estimated cost of $1 trillion.

But we’re going to pay the price, one way or the other.

This report comes out as world governments prepare to meet next month in Bali, to start forging an international agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. Let’s hope they all read it – and feel the heat.
(Sources: Greenwire, PlanetArk and Agence France-Presse)

Congressional round-up

The Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill (S. 2191) is scheduled for a vote in the Environment and Public Works Committee Dec. 5-6, Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said Thursday. Earlier, Boxer had hoped to vote the bill out of committee this week, but she was under severe criticism from some members who wanted more time. Votes on amendments are expected the 5th, with a final committee vote that day or the next, she said. There are pressures to both strengthen and weaken the bill. Key sponsor Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) told reporters last week he doesn’t expect the 2020 target to change from 15% below 2005 levels, but there may be consensus on tightening the 2050 limits (now 63%) and moving up the date for 100% auction of credits from 2036. Boxer said it’s unlikely the bill will see final action on the Senate floor before year’s end.

6,000 college students rallied for 80% by 2050 on Capitol Hill last Monday, as a new coalition, 1Sky, pushed for a more aggressive cap-and-trade bill. They urged support for the stricter Sanders-Boxer and Waxman bills instead of Lieberman-Warner, and called for 100% auction of credits, a moratorium on new coal plants, and using cap-and-trade proceeds to create 5 million new green jobs.

Negotiations to reconcile the energy bills continued, as advocates pressed for inclusion of the Senate’s corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards and House’s renewable electricity standards (RES), as well as a provision on biofuels, transfer of tax breaks from oil to renewables, and removal of loan guarantees for new nuclear plants. The final bill is expected to go the House and Senate for a vote in December. 60 votes are needed in the Senate to avoid a filibuster.

Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) has called on the EPA to explain why it gave permission for a new coal-fired plant in Utah without requiring greenhouse gas controls. He called the approval a missed opportunity and illegal under the Clean Air Act. The EPA responded that it has no regulations in place yet for regulating GHG. Waxman said he plans to investigate and will introduce a bill to prohibit permits unless plants use state-of-the-art technology to reduce emissions. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) introduced a similar bill in the Senate in April. Kerry also has a bill to boost R&D funds for demonstration projects on capture and sequestration of carbon at 6-10 plants.
(Congressional round-up sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM)

News in brief

Americans overwhelming want better auto fuel economy
A poll conducted last week showed that 86% of the people want improved auto fuel efficiency and don’t buy the arguments against it by the auto industry. Support for improved fuel-economy standards cut across all major political demographic groups, with 90% of Democrats in favor, 83% of Republicans and 83% of Independents. Their greatest concerns were security (oil dependency) and the price of gasoline. While the general public has always wanted improved fuel efficiency, it has risen to a top priority, said the Democrat and GOP pollsters who conducted the survey. (Source: E&E News PM)

California sues EPA over long waiver delay; other states to join
California sued the EPA Thursday, seeking to force a decision on whether the state can implement the nation’s first greenhouse gas emissions standards for cars and light trucks. Other states that plan to join the suit are Ariz., Conn., Ill., Maine, Md., Mass., N. J., N. M., N. Y., Ore., Pa., R. I., Vt. and Wash. California sought the waver about 2 years ago, and turned up the heat earlier this year when the Supreme Court said greenhouse gases are pollutants under the Clean Air Act. The EPA said there would be an answer at the end of the year, along with a set of regulations for GHG emissions. But California says there’s urgency because their rules apply to 2009 car models, which are being planned now. A waiver for California would allow 11 other states that have adopted the regulations to enforce theirs as well. Several other states are in the process of adopting similar restrictions. (Source: Associated Press)

Worldwide poll shows people willing to sacrifice, pay more
In a BBC global poll announced last week, 83% of those surveyed realized lifestyle changes will be needed to mitigate global warming. In 14 of the 21 countries surveyed, 61% said it will be necessary to pay increased energy costs and be more energy-efficient. A smaller number, but still a majority, were OK with a climate tax as long as all the money went to clean energy and efficiency. The poll surveyed 22,000 people and will be used as ammunition when environment ministers meet in Bali in December to discuss a post-Kyoto agreement. (Source: PlanetArk)

Chicago goes green with world’s largest commercial building
The 4.2 million-square-foot Merchandise Mart and the McCormick Place convention center have both received LEED certification, the city announced last week to the U.S. Green Building Council’s GreenBuild conference in Chicago. The Mart will undergo an extensive energy retrofit through the city’s partnership with the Clinton Climate Initiative, which brokered $5 billion for Chicago and 15 other cities to become more energy-efficient. The announcement was the leading edge of Chicago’s extensive Climate Action Plan, which will be rolled out over the next few months. Energy efficiency for commercial and multi-family residential buildings will be a major part of the plan to cut 25% of GHG emissions by 2020. The soon-to-be tallest building in the world, the Chicago Spire, is aiming for LEED certification, too. LEED stands for Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design, and is a program of the U.S. Green Building Council. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

Lush Kauai in Hawaiian Islands is going dry. Last month only 0.39 inches of rain were reported in the town of Lihue there, the driest October since records began in 1950. And August-October saw only 1.27 inches of rain, the lowest for any three-month period on record. Though a rainstorm last week dropped a welcome 1.47 inches, there’s concern the drought will get worse this winter. (New York Times)

Tibet is so dry people are waking up with nosebleeds. Humidity was at record lows in October in the country, which is heating up faster from Global Warming than any other place on Earth, according to China’s state media. Scientists have warned of melting glaciers, dried up rivers and desertification. (PlanetArk)

At least 82 were killed in floods in Vietnam last week as the nation was on alert for a possible typhoon to add to the misery. Nearly 200 have died in since early October and there are concerns the flooding will spread bird flu. (PlanetArk)

Take action

Do everything you can to urge Congress to pass a strong energy bill, with corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards of 35 mpg by 2020 and renewable electricity standards (RES) of 15% by 2020. Your reps will be on recess from Nov. 16-Dec. 3. Call or take friends and visit them in their home office, to remind them this is a top priority for their constituents. Ask your mayor to weigh in and send a letter to their congressional delegation. Write a letter to the editor to let the media know this issue is important. At a minimum, go on your senators’ Web sites and send them a message to “pass a strong energy bill this year.” For help, visit the Sierra Club's energy Web site at http://www.sierraclub.org/flip. Also, go to http://environmentaldefensse.org/climatevote07. and sign a letter to the leadership and your elected representatives in Washington.