Weekly angst: In an urgent call to action for the nations meeting in Bali this week, a new UN report says the world must repair its climate in the next 10 years. Unless it does so, we face large-scale human and economic set-backs and ecological disaster, says the UN Human Development 2007 report, released last week. It sets out a road map for the delegates to begin negotiating a successor to the Kyoto Accord.
“The message for Bali is the world can’t afford to wait; it has less than a decade to change course,” said lead author Kevin Watkins of Oxford University.
Rich countries should cut their greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2020 and then 80% by 2050, the report says. Developing countries should cut 20% by 2050, the report said.
The world will need to spend 1.6% of global economic output each year through 2030 to stabilize GHG in the atmosphere and keep temperatures at a safe level of no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F) above pre-industrial times, the report said.
Recommendations include:
• Improving the efficiency of cars
• Taxes or caps on emissions
• Trading allowances
• Transfer of carbon-capture technology to China and other countries dependent on coal.
• An international fund of $25 billion to $50 billion a year to help provide low-carbon energy in developing countries.
Many countries have the technical and financial resources they need, but not the political will to act, the report said.
Critical of United States
The report takes a shot at the U.S., not only for refusing to abide by the Kyoto treaty, but for our continuing reliance on coal, the leading source of GHG emissions. About 150 new coal-fired electricity plants are on the drawing board.
The Bush administration wants voluntary targets based on “intensity,” the increase in emissions per unit of economic growth. But that won’t work, scientists say. Since 1990, the U.S. has reduced emissions 25% in intensity, but real emissions are up 25%.
The report urges the U.S. to support a new annual global investment fund of $86 billion for adaptation and to help build “climate proof” infrastructure in developing countries. This would cost the northern, industrialized countries 0.2% of GDP.
Damage to poor countries
Even immediate steps won’t have a major impact until 2030, and temperatures will continue rising till 2050, due to accumulation in the atmosphere (CO2 stays around for a century). So climate disasters like droughts and floods will become more frequent and will require adaptation, it said.
Developing countries are most likely to suffer the impact of unrestrained Global Warming, though it will affect us all. (Climate disasters in 2000-2004 affected 262 million people, 98% of them in the developing world.) The report estimates that if the temperature rises 5.4-7.2%, 340 million would be displaced by flooding, and up to 1.8 billions would face a shortage of water.
There’s a large gap between what industrial (rich) countries and developing (poor) countries can do on their own to adapt to or prevent climate catastrophes. For example, the low-lying Netherlands has a system of dikes and has begun building homes that float. In Vietnam, however, the answer has been to hand out life jackets and teach people how to swim, the report said.
“Leaving the world’s poor to sink or swim is morally wrong,” wrote contributor Desmond Tutu, Nobel Peace Prize winner from South Africa.
Wealthy countries have a responsibility to help the poor nations, which have fallen victim to the energy-intensive lifestyles of those in rich countries, the report says. People in the U.S. use 15 times the energy per capita as those in India, it points out. The average air-conditioning unit in Florida uses more energy in a year than a person in Cambodia or Afghanistan uses in a lifetime.
(Sources: PlanetArk, Inter Press Service)
Congressional round-up
Democrats reach deal on energy bill! House to vote Wednesday
Auto state Democrats Rep. John Dingell and Sen. Carl Levin are now onboard for a far-reaching energy bill that will include CAFE standards of 35 mpg by 2020, a 15% renewable electricity standard (RES) for non-public utilities, energy efficiency standards and biofuel production of 36 billion gallons by 2022. The bill will be up for a vote Wednesday in the House and likely the following week in the Senate, with Congressional leadership feeling positive about chances of passage, though many Republicans are opposed. The Senate needs 60 votes to avoid a filibuster. In heavy negotiations, Dingell won some concessions: separate schedules for cars and SUVs (though the corporate average still must be 35 by 2020), and an extension until 2014 of credits for flex fuel vehicles that run on 85% ethanol, which will be phased out between 2014-2020. This is the first change in CAFE standards since the ‘70s. Cars now average 27.5 mpg and trucks and SUVs 22. Some difference of opinion remained this weekend over the RES provision and whether it could sink the bill in the Senate. (Sources: AP, E&E Daily)
Lieberman cap-and-trade bill gets minor changes in committee
A few adjustments have been made in the Lieberman-Warner bill before the attempt to pass it out of committee this week. Natural gas processors were added to the bill, so now it covers 80% of the economy, not 75%. Free credits would start to be phased out in 2031 instead of 2036. And there would be a separate cap on hydrofluorocarbons, an especially potent GHG. The bill still has the target of 63% below 2005 levels in 2050, less than the 80% below 1990 scientists say is needed. The compromise bill is still too weak, many environmental advocates say, especially in the number of credits given away instead of auctioned. Environment Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) seems confident the bill will be approved by her committee. (Sources: E&E News PM, E&E Daily)
News in brief
‘Dramatic spike’ in thaw of Greenland ice sheet last summer
The ice sheet in Greenland melted at a record pace this past summer, according to research published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Melting started more than a month earlier than usual and topped the record thaw of 1998 by 60%. While the temperature in Greenland this summer was the warmest since modern records began in 1961, that is not the only cause, said researcher Thomas Mote of the University of Georgia. Other possibilities include a warmer winter where less snow and ice accumulated and the overall temperature rise in Greenland for the past three years. Greenland is a concern because a significant meltdown could raise sea levels by many feet. (Source: E&E PM)
Global businesses urge ‘strong, early action’ by Bali delegates
Shell, GE and DuPont are among 150 worldwide corporations that signed a petition urging the participants at Bali to begin taking strong action to prevent climate change. Ambitious restrictions on GHG are good for companies, they said, because Global Warming poses risks for business. Let science decide how much to cut, they said. Other signers included Coca Cola, British Airways and Nestle SA.
In other Bali-related news last week:
• The U.S. and EU proposed a trade plan that removes tariffs and other barriers from "climate-friendly" goods and services like solar panels, wind turbines and nuclear reactor parts. Trade officials from 190 countries will meet in Bali Dec. 8-9 as part of the international conference on climate change.
• India and Brazil both criticized a UN report calling for developing countries to reduce emissions 20% by 2050 (while rich countries cut 80%).
• Countries doing the worst at meeting their goals under the Kyoto Accord will have to pay up to $33 billion. Spain, Portugal and Italy, among the 36 countries committed to reductions by Kyoto, have not paid to convert factories and power plants, so now will have to pay for credits.
• Malaysia had the most rapid increase in emissions, 221% from 1991-2004. (During that period U.S. emissions went up 25%) Malaysia is not committed to reductions under the Kyoto Accord.
(Sources: PlanetArk, Greenwire)
McKinsey report: Much of climate investment will pay for itself
The U.S. can reduce emissions through a portfolio of existing technologies without wrecking the economy, an international consulting firm said last week. More efficient electronics, autos and agriculture would pay for themselves, said the report by McKinsey & Co. Other technologies such as reforestation, carbon capture from coal plants, and efficient cooling of commercial buildings could be accomplished for as little as $50 a ton, the report said. Emissions could be cut by the amount recommended by scientists with a $1.1 trillion investment by 2030, and extra 1.5% over what would otherwise be invested. Public utilities won’t need to build 85% of the 150 or so coal-fired plants planned if efficiencies quell the demand. However, government must provide “strong stimuli and policy interventions,” the report said, because, given the upfront investment, the changes are unlikely to materialize by themselves. (Source: E&E News PM)
Brown on Green: Prime Minister to lead ‘Revolution’ in Britain
New Prime Minister Gordon Brown recently vowed to lead a green “technology revolution” and create hundreds of thousands of new clean-tech jobs. Brown said he is looking at raising the UK’s current 2050 target of 60% GHG reductions to 80%, in line with what scientists say is need to avert a climate disaster. He said he wants to set up a new “green homes” unit and generate 20% of power from renewables by 2020. He also plans talks with supermarkets and retailers about eliminating throw-away plastic bags. (Source: Greenwire)
Xtreme weather watch
2007 is on track to be the warmest year on record in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The previous record was set in 2005. Temperatures from January-October were 1.3 degrees F above normal. Worldwide, those 9 months were the third warmest. (USA Today)
Flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia, was blamed on Global Warming by the country’s environmental minister last week. Rising seas flooded parts of Jakarta, encroaching a mile inland and leaving water 6 feet deep in places. Thousands fled their homes. A flood expert criticized authorities for ignoring warnings about especially high tides and failing to repair barriers breached the previous week. (Greenwire)
Take action
Voting is expected Wednesday on the final energy bill, calling for 35 mpg CAFE standards and 15% renewable electricity standards (RES). This is a huge step in the right direction. Please call the capitol switchboard (202-224-3121) and ask for your Congressman by name. Tell their office staff you want them to vote for the energy bill. It takes just a minute. (If you can, you may want to check in on C-SPAN that day. You may be able to catch the vote taking place.) And Senators will vote either Friday or the following week. We’ll need calls to them also, as 60 votes are needed to avoid filibuster.
For those who are planning to put up Christmas lights but haven’t done so yet, get the energy-efficient LED type that are for sale at Target, Home Depot, Wal-Mart and on the Internet (Google LED Christmas lights).
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