Two-thirds of world will find it hard to get water by 2025
For those of us who have endless access to clean tap water and bottled water from Fiji or France (eight glasses a day, the doctor says), it’s hard to even imagine what a severe water shortage would be like.

My friend from Australia told me her family had to share bath water because of scarcity there, and I remember times when we could only water the lawn on even days. But that’s nothing, compared with what much of the world tolerates now and what is in store for us, as population grows and the impact of Global Warming increases.

More than 1 billion people worldwide lack access to clean water now, according to Science magazine’s State of the Planet 2006-2007, and well over 2 million, mainly children, die of water-related diseases each year. In much of the world, water must be boiled before it can be used. Now rapid development, population growth and Global Warming are making the situation much worse. China is strangling in pollution, in both their air and water, with about 10% of the Yangtze River, water source for 35% of the population, in critical condition. Recognizing this is a huge problem, that country and many others are paying billions to private contractors to improve their water quality and accessibility.

Future shock
Two-thirds of the world population will have trouble getting water by 2025, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A change in rain patterns and the loss of glaciers and snowpack – combined with population growth – will significantly reduce water availability.

Here in the U.S., there will be a clash over control of rivers. The San Joaquin and Colorado rivers will struggle to meet needs by 2020. More than 40 percent of the water supply to southern California will be vulnerable, due to lost snowpack. The Southwest and some other regions will need new sources of water, and may look to the Great Lakes, with 20% of the world’s fresh surface water, questioning the diversion of that water to cities like Chicago. At the same time, the Great Lakes will shrink, and toxins will be more concentrated.

Meanwhile, rising seas will increase the salinity of fresh water, which could cause critical shortages in New York City and other coastal areas.

The rest of the world
Hundreds of millions of Africans and tens of millions in Latin America, who now have water, will be short of it in less than 20 years, IPCC says. In the Amazon region, tropical forests will turn into savannah. Those who depend on the dwindling Andean glaciers for drinking, hydroelectric power and irrigation also will be up a creek, so to speak. Poor countries like Bolivia and Peru have few other sources for water and power.

Southern, central and eastern Europe won’t be spared. And parts of Greece will turn to desert, which could cause a mass exodus from the Mediterranean, according to a study there. The average rainfall in Greece is down 30% since the mid-1970s. Spain also will suffer.

By 2080, more than a billion people in Asia could be short of water. And the Australian Outback could see temperatures rise as much as 6.7 degrees F, bringing less rain and more evaporation.

Serious problems now
The rivers of the American West are at lower-than-average levels this spring. The flow on the Rio Grande, which goes from southern Colorado through New Mexico and Texas, is 38% below normal. Lake Powell, one of the Colorado River’s most important storage facilities, is down 80 feet.

States like Arizona and California already fight over the Colorado River. Most years, the Colorado is dry by the time it reaches its delta at the Sea of Cortez, because 7 states and Mexico all draw from it.

In Florida this spring, water likely will be pumped from the Everglades into dry water wells if the severe drought continues. Otherwise salt-water intrusion could ruin the water supply for a decade. Normally, Lake Okeechobee is used for backup, but that is down to its lowest level ever.

Las Vegas, growing by 100,000 people a year, realizes Lake Mead will soon be unable to meet its needs. Nevada is part of a Colorado Basin study that is looking at such measures as building a desalinization plant in Mexico or bringing water from Alaska in ships.

And Australia is in the throes of an unprecedented drought that is costing an estimated 1% of GDP. It’s in such dire straits this spring that the government will cut off water to agriculture unless there are widespread heavy rains in the next couple of week, Prime Minister John Howard announced. Wine grape production is down 30% and the rice crop has collapsed.

The importance of conservation
We’ve been very wasteful of water. In many cities of the world, half the volume has been lost to leaks. In Mexico City, 40% of the water leaked out of the system until they fixed it in the 1990s.

In addition to plugging leaks, there’s a growing focus on matching water to users’ needs, and pricing it to drive down demand. Numerous countries, including China, are contracting out their water management to private companies, such as Veoila in France, which among other things raises the price to consumers.

New technologies
The amount of water used in toilets in the U.S. has dropped 75% since new efficiency standards were imposed. But water-based sanitation, which the industrialized world has become used to, is not essential. Home toilets contaminate huge amounts of potable water. If necessary, the world could treat human waste without water, says State of the Planet.

There also are changes in agriculture that hold promise. New irrigation technology and crop characteristics can produce more with less water. Changes include drip irrigation and micro-sprinklers, which are more efficient than flood irrigation. And the most efficient dairies now use just 1 liter of water per liter of milk, where they required 3-6 liters in 1997.

We can look to dry countries like Australia, which has just started up a desalinization plant that turns out 30 million liters of fresh water a day. Several more such plants are likely.

Conservation, new technology and pricing are all part of the solution to saving water. But adaptation is only part of the answer. We also need to stop Global Warming in its tracks by drastically cutting and then reversing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

(Sources: Science magazine’s State of the Planet 2006-2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change April report, Greenwire, PlanetArk, Land Letter, New York Times, Vanity Fair’s Green Issue, Environmental Defense and Friends of the Earth.)


News briefs

1. Military panel warns of prolonged terrorism, more Darfurs
Global Warming will foster instability and more situations like Darfur, a panel of 11 retired generals reported last week. There will be natural and human disasters far beyond what we see today, said one of them, Gen. Anthony Zinni. Marginal living standards in the Middle East, Asia and Africa will become worse, the report said, aggravating the conditions that lead to terrorism. And there likely will be multiple problems simultaneously at different points on the globe, as governments fail and refugee numbers mount. The U.S. will have to pay now for GHG mitigation now or pay later in military and human terms, the panel said. They pointed to the Darfur calamity, where 300,000 lives have been lost, as partly caused by climate change. Rainfall has dropped 40% in the last quarter-century and populations are fighting over the same land. The panel urged a more aggressive U.S. response to stopping Global Warming. (Sources: Financial Times, Ottowa Citizen)

2. Alaska warming will cause grief for pilots, fisheries
Pilots face new risks flying over Alaska, the National Weather Service environmental chief told a state legislative commission last week. And fish are being forced further north by warming temperatures, a National Marine Fisheries rep said. The danger to airplanes is that clouds are increasingly full of cold water, not ice crystals, which could freeze on a plane and cause failure. The fisheries, which supply half the seafood in the U.S., are seeing cod, flounder and pollock forced northward and crab habitats reduced. Other testimony said floods and melting permafrost will cause billions of dollars of damage to roads and bridges over the next three decades. Alaska is warming faster than the rest of the country. (Source: Greenwire)

3. Salamanders and frogs may be ‘canaries in the coal mine’
A precipitous drop in reptile and amphibian populations in a Costa Rica preserve is most likely caused by climate change, researchers concluded. Habitat loss and fungus disease, the cause of many such population collapses, were ruled out here. The number of frogs, toads, snakes, salamanders and geckos plummeted 75% in 35 years in La Selva refuge, during a time when rainfall doubled and the temperature rose 1 degree Celsius. Researchers, led by Maureen Donelly of Florida International University, think the problem is the loss of leaf litter on the forest floor, needed for shelter and to provide bugs for food. Amphibians are considered sentinels of climate change. (Source: The Guardian UK)

4. New Hampshire towns make climate change part of primary
Three quarters of the towns in New Hampshire have agreed to go on record letting presidential candidates know they need to address Global Warming in the 2008 campaign, according to the Carbon Coalition, which coordinated the effort. New Hampshire holds the first presidential primary. The towns will include an article in their Town Meeting warrant requiring a reduction in greenhouses gases while protecting the economy, and seeking a national research initiative to develop renewable energy and create jobs. The state’s ski industry has been hurt by warming winters. (Sources: Greenwire and Portsmouth Herald’s Seacoastonline.)

5. Gore can use solar panels, as long as they’re out of sight
Al Gore can now install solar panels on his roof, after swish Belle Meade, Tenn., amended its zoning laws at his request. But the 33 panels must be out of view of neighbors. The former veep is also upgrading his furnace, windows and lights switches to be more efficient and putting new floor radiant heat and solar vents in his 70-year-old home, a spokesman said. He had been criticized for the size of his electric bill. (Sources: E&E News PM and MSNBC)

Congressional round-up

* Dem Senate strategy: 'bold' action, but not yet
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said after meeting with five key senators last week that they were committed to a “bold and progressive” climate change program by the end of the 110th Congress. For now, a series of bills will be put to a vote in coming months. Environment Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) explained they want some quick action and, in the end, broad action. Others in the meeting were Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), and Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Don’t hold your breath for a mandatory cap on emissions anytime soon. (Source: E&E News PM)

* House told how to be carbon neutral by end of this Congress
The House of Representative should become carbon neutral by the end of the 110th Congress, a report requested by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) says. This can be accomplished by getting electricity from renewable sources, becoming more energy efficient, and buying offset credits, said Daniel Beard, House Chief Administrative Officer, in a preview for House leaders last week. The House emits 91,000 tons of greenhouse gases a year. Efficiency steps would include putting condensed fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) in 12,000 desk lamps, buying Energy Star products and installing an Ethanol-85 fuel pump. It is likely the House will have to buy credits to offset a third of its emissions or pay into a “green revolving fund,” Beard said. (Source: Greenwire)

*Bingaman-Domenici biofuels bill may see coal-to-liquid added
A new bill that calls for a five-fold increase in biofuels, to 36 billion gallons by 2022, does not include the coal-to-liquid, natural gas or other carbon-emitting gases that are part of a similar White House proposal. But co-sponsor Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) thinks the votes are there to add coal-to-liquid as an alternative fuel in committee, despite Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman’s (D-N.M.) concerns about GHG emissions. Energy Chair Bingaman also introduced a bill to cut gasoline use 45% by 2030, a Bush White House goal. (Sources: E&E News PM, Greenwire)

*Bingaman commission backs stricter cuts, moderate steps
The National Commission on Energy Policy, a group Senate Energy Chair Bingaman relies on to inform legislation, backs stabilizing emissions by 2030 and cutting them 15% (from current levels) by 2030. The group of experts from industry, labor, government, consumer groups and others also wants a “safety valve” cap on carbon credit prices. The panel acknowledged its plan does not reach the emission levels needed to maintain a stable climate going forward, but said, "Moving forward with initially moderate targets is more ecologically protective than continued delay in pursuit of more aggressive goals." Bingaman has echoed that sentiment, saying a stronger package does not have the votes now. (Source: E&E Daily)


Do something

Wean yourself off the bottle – water bottles, that is. It takes 1.5 million barrels of oil a year to make bottles for water, says the Earth Policy Institute. That’s enough to fuel 100,000 cars. And only 1 in 5 is recycled, according to the Chicago Sun-Times. Use refillables with tap water. And if on occasions you feel the need to buy bottled water, go for a domestic brand and save the energy spent on shipping. And always recycle.

Hot tickets now on sale: On 7/7/07 seven Live Earth concerts will be held around the world to call attention to Global Warming. Tickets for the U.S. concert, in Giants Stadium, are now available and going fast. If you want to be part of the historic scene, don’t delay. Go to www.LiveEarth.MSN.com Entertainers will include the Dave Mathews Band, Sheryl Crow, Bon Jovi, Melissa Etheridge, Smashing Pumpkins and Kanye West.

News brief extra

1. China says it will work toward post-Kyoto agreement
In a visit to Japan last week, Chinese Premier Wen Jianboa announced his country will join in talks about post-Kyoto efforts to attack Global Warming. A joint statement with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said both would “actively participate in setting up an effective framework for after 2013.” During the visit, the two also spoke about energy efficiency, deforestation and waste treatment. China was responsible for 18% of the world’s carbon emissions in 2004 and is expected to pass up the U.S. as the top emitter by 2010, and possibly as soon as next year. (Source: Greenwire)

2. Peek at third IPPC report: Cost to be at least 0.2% of GDP
GHG mitigation will be expensive, says a draft of the third and final IPPC report, due out May 4. How expensive depends on how much we’re willing to let temperatures rise. One scenario shows a cost of 0.2% of global GDP in 2030. In that scenario, atmospheric CO2 would stabilize at 650 ppm, and the temperature would rise 5.8-7.2 degrees F above pre-industrial levels. In a much more stringent scenario, where emissions top out at 445-535 ppm and actually start to drop in 15 years, the cost would be 3% of global GDP. In this case, the temperature increase would likely be kept at between 3.6 to 4.3 degrees F. There would be economic benefits too, including energy savings, better health, less crop damage and greater energy security, the draft says. (Source: Reuters)

3. Big costal cities like New York could be in deep … water
New York, Tokyo and Shanghai are among the cities of more than 5 million people that would be devastated by rising seas. Worldwide, 634 million people live in coastal areas less than 33 feet above sea level, according to a study published recently in the journal Environment and Urbanization. The study recommended stopping or reducing construction in low-lying areas and building protective structures. "Migration away from the zone at risk will be necessary but costly and hard to implement, so coastal settlements will also need to be modified to protect residents," said report co-author Gordon McGranahan of the International Institute for Environment and Development in London. (Source: Greenwire)

4. Forests of the world are still going, going …
Though deforestation has slowed a bit, the world’s forests are disappearing at a rate of 32 million acres a year, a new U.N. report says. And as trees are cut down, mostly for agriculture, they release significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the air. More than half the forest loss from 2000-2005 was in Africa. Areas with more economic development, such as China and India, are beginning to re-forest, which helped create a net gain for Asia-Pacific. In China the new trees were needed for lumber and to protect soil. It Latin America, for the first time, less than half the land is forested. Meanwhile, British economist Nicholas Stern is calling for governments to invest $15 billion in a global fund to cut deforestation in half. (Sources: AP, Reuters, MSNBC, Greenwire)

5. Wait. Stop. Don’t plant those trees there!
Planting trees might actually hurt Global Warming rather than help, as is commonly believed. It depends on where you plant them, says a Department of Energy-funded study. In higher latitudes, dark, dense forests absorb the sun’s heat rather than reflecting it and so could add to Global Warming. It is far more important to preserve and restore tropical forests, says study co-author Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at Stanford University. Trees at tropical latitudes foil Global Warming in two ways: they absorb CO2 and promote clouds that cool the planet. (Sources: Greenwire, Time)

6. Oil company and insurer jump on bandwagon
Conoco Phillips and AIG have joined the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, a group of large companies that is calling for Congress to approve mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Conoco is the first U.S. oil company to join, following Britain’s BP, and AIG is the first insurance company. The Partnership told Congress in January to cut emissions 15-30% in the next 15 years and 80% by 2050. Insurance companies took a huge hit in the 2005 hurricane season, but only AIG, the largest, has come forward to press for GHG cuts. AIG said it hopes to help shape cap-and-trade legislation. Other partners include GE, DuPont, Caterpillar and Alcoa. (Source: Reuters PlanetArk)

7. Global Warming hot topic for Left Coast lawmakers
More than 60 bills on climate change await action in the California legislature. Various bills would make diesel-powered school buses run on biodiesel; make it easier to install solar power on homes; require TVs and computers to be more energy efficient; and add incentives for gas station owners to install pumps for alternative fuels. Polls show wide public support in California for tackling Global Warming, with 70% of likely voters saying state government should do more. Meanwhile, the governor of Washington is expected to sign a bill lowering emissions 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2035 and 50 percent by 2050. And the Oregon senate passed a bill to have 25% of power from renewables by 2025. The two largest electric power companies in Oregon support the bill, which now goes to the house. (Sources: San Francisco Chronicle, Greenwire)

8. Arnold tells enviros: ‘Don’t scold, make topic sexy’
California Gov. Arnold Schwartzenegger told an environmental forum at Georgetown University Wednesday that they should make the fight against Global Warming “sexy” and appealing to get people to participate. He also told politicians who aren’t willing to act to curb GHG emissions that they will see their support melt away like the polar ice cap. “You will become a political penguin on a smaller and smaller ice floe that is drifting out to sea,” he warned. The Terminator was in D.C. to press the EPA to let California enforce it’s tough tailpipe emissions law. (Source: Reuters PlanetArk)

Do something

Step up and be counted in fight against Warming
This Saturday, April 14, you have something to do – join the National Day of Climate Action. StepItUp2007 will hold more than 1,300 (and counting) locally generated rallies or activities around the country, to tell Congress to cut greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050.

Actions will be as diverse as coloring Canal Street in New York City with blue chalk to show the reach of rising seas; skiing on melting glaciers in Wyoming; taking waterproof banners down to endangered coral reefs off Maui and Key West; and driving hybrid cars across the Golden Gate Bridge.

"It's clearly going to be the biggest grass-roots environmental protest since Earth Day 1970," said Bill McKibben, a lead organizer and scholar-in-residence at Middlebury College.

There are traditional rallies too. In Chicago, where many EarthlingAngst readers live, those concerned about Global Warming will gather from noon to 2 at Daley Plaza, 100 N. Dearborn, for speeches, entertainment and activities for both adults and children. I’ve volunteered to help at the sign-in booth and hope to see you there. Come join like-minded people. It’ll be fun.

Those living elsewhere can find local activities at www.stepitup2007.org.

We must be strong
It’s critical that these demonstrations show strength, in order to have an impact on Congress, which despite its interest in climate issues, is under severe pressure from fossil fuel industries. And we know what corporate lobbies can do. Without strong public pressure, our representatives are likely to settle for weak compromise legislation. It’s unlikely they will do what scientists agree is needed – 80% by 2050.

Last week House Energy Committee Chairman John Dingell (D-Mich.) said environmentalists should not expect “to dictate the result” of Global Warming legislation. Dingell and others in the government need to know that “environmentalists” are not a fringe group; they are the mainstream.

Survey results
In a recent Yale University poll, 83% of adults nationwide said Global Warming is a “serious problem.” And 63% put environmental dangers on a par with terrorism.

There was overwhelming support for alternative energy such as wind or solar: 70% were willing to consider buying solar energy and 67% said they would buy a hybrid car.

Frustrated with government inaction, 70% said President Bush should do more. 81% felt they had a responsibility to help reduce greenhouse gases, and 43% said it was their religious obligation.

In another, Gallup, poll, 79% favored stricter emissions for autos and industry and mandatory controls on greenhouse gases.

So the numbers are with us. But too many people are complacent and so far there hasn’t been the kind of public involvement there was, say, in the Civil Rights Movement or for Vietnam.

“It’s time to unleash as much passion and energy as we can,” McKibben wrote in the latest On Earth magazine. “It’s movement time. We need nothing less than a social transformation … a commitment to wean America from fossil fuels in our lifetime and to lead the rest of the world, especially India and China in the same direction.”

Let’s do it for our kids – and grandkids. See you out there Saturday, wherever you are.

Congressional round-up

*Inhofe to block Live Earth concert on Capitol lawn
Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), who has called Global Warming a hoax, has vowed to block permission for a July 7 Live Earth concert on the Capitol’s west lawn, calling it “partisan and political” because former V.P. Al Gore is one of the organizers. An Earth Day celebration was held in the same place. Organizers are now looking for another U.S. city to host the concert. Other Live Earth concerts on July 7 will be in Shanghai, Sydney, Johannesburg, London and cites to be named in Brazil, Japan and Antarctica.

*Feinstein calls for national tailpipe emissions standards
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) unveiled a bill to adopt California’s auto emissions standards nationally. It requires the auto industry to cut emission 30% (from 2002) by 2016; directs the EPA to set up an emissions trading program; and suggests green gas caps for cars running on low-carbon fuel.

*Domenici says no-go unless developing nations are onboard
Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) said he will block Global Warming legislation unless China, India and other developing economies make similar commitments. China could surpass the U.S. in CO2 emissions as early as this year. Domenici said he’s afraid U.S. action would do little to help the planet but would hurt our economy, a position held by the White House.

*Waxman “Safe Climate Act” calls for 80% cut by 2050
Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) re-introduced a bill setting a mandatory reduction of 80% by mid-century. It calls on the EPA to set up a cap-and-trade system for industry and calls for tailpipe restrictions as tough as California’s. The bill, with 127 co-sponsors, also requires use of renewable energy to increase 2% a year, till it reaches 20% in 2020.

*Foreign Relations pushes for international accord
A non-binding resolution passed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee calls for the U.S. to work toward a binding international climate change agreement. Democratic Committee Chr. Joe Biden (Del.) and ranking Republican Richard Lugar (Ind.) said they hope the resolution will push the U.S. into U.N.-sponsored talks about the next step after Kyoto expires in 2012.
(Congressional round-up sources: The Hill, Reuters PlanetArk, Greenwire, E&E News Daily, E&E PM)


News briefs

1. Panel warns of devastating effects of warming temperatures
If greenhouse gases are not curtailed, the impact on human society will be profound, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said last week. The panel’s report predicted that if temperatures continue to rise, increased water shortages, droughts, flooding and wildfires, as well as expanding deserts and more acidic oceans, will be the result. Many millions will be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by 2080, the report said. Costs will be considerable. Some highlights, by continent:
* In Africa, as soon as 2020, 75 million to 250 million will face water shortages. Agricultural production will be severely compromised and sea-level rise will damage low-lying coastal areas with large populations.
* In Asia, melting Himalayan glaciers will cause flooding and rock avalanches within 2-3 decades. More than 1 billion will be adversely affected by water shortages by 2050. Cholera and diarrhea will increase. Risk of hunger is very high in some developing countries.
*In Australia/New Zealand, water shortages will intensify by 2030 in parts of both countries. Ongoing coastal development and population growth will exacerbate risks from sea-level rise and storm intensity, with coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity along the Great Barrier Reef will occur by 2020.
*In Europe, nearly all regions will be negatively impacted, posing challenges to many economic sectors. Inland flash floods, more frequent coastal flooding and erosion, retreat of glaciers and snow cover will occur.
* Latin America, by mid-century, will see gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. In dryer areas, crops will decrease. Sea rise will increase flooding in low-lying areas. Changes in precipitation and disappearing glaciers will affect water availability.
* In North America, western mountains will have decreased snowpack, more winter flooding and competition for water. Pests, diseases and fire will hurt forests. Cities already experiencing heat waves can expect them to intensify. Coastal communities will be increasingly stressed.
*Small islands will face inundation, storms surges and erosion from sea level rise, threatening vital infrastructure and settlements. By 2050, water on many islands in the Caribbean and Pacific may be insufficient in low-rain periods. To read the 21-page summary of the report, go to www.ipcc.ch and download the summary for policymakers (top right, on picture) (Source: IPCC)

2. U.S. blocks G8-plus-5 agreement on carbon trading
The United States blocked consensus on carbon-trading last month at a meeting of environment ministers from the G8 industrial nations plus China, India, Mexico, Brazil and South Africa. All participants agreed on the need for industrial nations to go beyond the 5% emissions cut required by Kyoto, and the need for industrialized nations to help developing countries cut their emissions. But U.S. EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson balked at joining the others to agree about setting up a carbon-trading market. He said the group needs more input from economists and financial experts. (Sources: Greenwire, AP, SFGate.com)

3. EU blames U.S., Australia for lack of international progress
The European Union last week accused the U.S. and Australia of hampering international efforts to mitigate Global Warming. "We expect ... the United States to cooperate closer and not to continue having a negative attitude in international negotiations," EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas told delegates at a United Nations-sponsored meeting. "It is absolutely necessary that they move because otherwise other countries, especially the developing countries, do not have any reason to move," he said. (Source: Reuters)

4. California to link to Europe’s carbon-trading market
In the face of the Bush Administration’s reluctance to join a carbon-trading market, California sent a delegation to Europe and now expects to join a trans-Atlantic market with the EU in 2012. California’s environmental secretary, Linda Adams, said perhaps other states would follow suit. California plans to cut its emissions 25% by 2020. Both California and the EU hope to spur Congress to set up a carbon-trading system for all 50 states. (Source: Greenwire)

5. Britain to push Security Council on Global Warming
Britain will use its month-long presidency of the Security Council to push discussion of Global Warming’s implications for peace and security. Foreign Secretary Margaret Baker will emphasize potential changes in political and maritime borders due to sea-level rise, as well as the 200 million people expected to become refugees. And she’ll point to the likelihood that scarce resources will lead to instability and conflict. (Source: Greenwire)

6. Pressure’s on EPA following Supreme Court ruling
The EPA will be called before Congress later this month to explain what it plans to do in the wake of last Monday’s Supreme Court ruling that recognized greenhouse gases as pollutants. And California and 10 other states now await EPA’s OK and the resolution of lawsuits so they can begin restricting tailpipe emissions. EPA has told California it would move forward with public comment and a hearing on the state’s request. The court ruled 5-4 that the EPA has authority to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. In Massachusetts vs. EPA, 11 states and 13 environmental groups had sued EPA over its refusal to regulate GHG emissions from new cars and trucks. The federal government had insisted that was up to the Dept. of Transportation. Friends of the Earth is rallying the public to pressure the EPA to begin to regulate tailpipe emissions. You can join that effort at www.action.foe.org/dia/organizationsORG/foe/campaign.jsp?campaign_KEY=7148&t (Sources: AP, Reuters, E&E PM)

7. Easygoing European work style saves energy, helps planet
Europeans work shorter hours and take long stress-free vacations. Now we learn this lifestyle is good for the environment. A new study from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a Washington, D.C., think tank, has discovered that carbon emissions and working hours are linked. If Europeans adopted America’s longer working hours, their energy use would increase by 30%, the study found. And the idea that the European work style is bad for the economy seems to be false. The French work 22 percent fewer hours than Americans, but each hour is 9 percent more productive, the study said. (Source: Natural Resources Defense Council’s OnEarth magazine)

What are we going to do about airplane emissions?
I love to watch the peach and magenta sunsets in the Florida Keys. But more and more the natural beauty is marred by jet trails criss-crossing the sky. I’ve often wondered how much pollution those jets must be adding to the skies, and eventually to the seas. Now we’re beginning to find out, as Britain takes the lead in calling attention to the airlines’ contribution to Global Warming.

If you should fly from Bangkok to London, your individual share of your plane’s greenhouse gas emissions would be 2.1 metric tons, according to one greenhouse-gas offset company, 3.6 tons according to another and 6.9 tons according to a third, says the journal Nature. You can offset those emissions by contributing 30 euros, 86 euros or 139 euros, respectively, to alternative energy projects or tree planting, depending on your preference and which offset company you go with.

Why the big variations for the same flight? It depends in part on whether they’re only counting CO2 or including nitrogen oxide, nitrogen dioxide and/or vapor trails, all of which – at 30,000 feet – have a more complex effect on clouds, ozone and climate than earthbound polluters. Aircraft contributions to Global Warming are complicated and there are still many unknowns.

There seems to be general agreement that airlines now contribute an estimated 3-4% of greenhouse gases. So why should we be concerned?

Rapid growth
The main reason is that airline travel is growing quickly. It threatens to become one of the largest contributors to Global Warming by 2050, British scientists say. The FAA predicts that the number of U.S. airline passengers will double to 1.4 billion by 2025 and that U.S. air traffic of all kinds – including air freight and private jets – will triple. There’s also likely to be significant growth worldwide, with China alone planning 40 new airports. Second, it’s not as easy to wean aircraft off fossil fuels as it is cars and electric power plants, and carbon capture is not an option. And third, if we’re going to have to CUT greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050 to avoid a calamity, this segment cannot be ignored.

Alarmed about the future, the European Union is calling for strict controls on emissions from airlines flying within Europe, using a cap-and-trade system, starting in 2011. External airlines landing or taking off from Europe would be included the following year. The U.S. government is adamantly opposed and threatened a lawsuit.

The FAA doesn’t see an immediate threat, an agency representative told USA Today, saying, “Cars and trucks generate 7 times the amount of emissions that aviation produces.” The American Transit Association, representing the carriers, says U.S. airlines have already reduced GHG emissions by improving fuel efficiency 23% since 2000. But those gains don’t offset the increase in travel, scientists say.

The National Association of Clean Air Agencies, which represents pollution control officials in 49 state and 165 metro areas, says jet engines must have stricter emissions standards. They are suing the EPA for its failure to create them.

Several solutions to airplane emissions are being investigated:

Make planes a different shape.
Boeing is about to test a blended-wing design, like the stealth bomber, where passengers would sit in the wings rather than in a center fuselage that is just dead weight. The design will be tested on the military and likely won’t be ready for commercial use for 20 years, which environmentalists say is too late. One problem is that it is hard to keep such planes up in the air and they need a complicated set of computer controls to take that job out of the pilot’s hands.

Create better flight routes.
Use of GPS instead of the old radar system devised in the ‘50s, which has plane zigzagging to their destination rather than plotting the most direct route, could save an estimated 12-15% in fuel. New Zealand is already using new software to accomplish this. Airlines favor this change and are lobbying for it, in order to save money on fuel.

Cut the growth of air travel.
Some European countries are starting to deny airport requests to expand. Business executives, who pay lip service to reducing emissions, are being urged to use trains or small cars for trips that would take an hour or less by plane. And Britain has doubled its flight tax.

Use carbon composites.
Use of this material is already making planes lighter. Up to 50% of Boeing’s next-generation plane, due out in May 2008, is made of carbon-composite materials. And 25% of Airbus’s largest plane, scheduled for delivery in October, is carbon composite.

Look to new fuel and engine technology.
Boeing is studying new fuel-cell technology but that may be 10 years away. The most modern engines in use are emitting less CO2 but more nitrogen oxide, which also causes Global Warming. NASA is developing technology that could allow the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 to use 25% less fuel and reduce nitrogen oxide emissions 80% by 2018.

Redesign airports and/or tow planes to and from gates.
Parking bays closer to runways and towing planes could save fuel use on the ground and is being promoted by Virgin Airline’s Richard Branson. An Illinois inventor, in the ‘80s, came up with an idea to ramp runways down for departing planes and up for arriving planes, reducing taxi time, an idea that is being looked at again.

Invest more in railroads and high-speed trains.
Unfortunately, in the United States, this form of travel has lagged. Since 1982 the government has invested $450 billion in highways, $200 billion in aviation, but only $20 billion in passenger rail, which doesn’t have the lobbying strength of petroleum-based modes of transportation. Yet last year, in the Midwest, train travel hit record numbers. Travel between Milwaukee and Chicago grew 8.2%; Ann Arbor had a 22% growth in Amtrak riders; and increases in service in Illinois resulted in large ridership gains, including a 93% surge this December (compared to last December) between St. Louis and Chicago, according to the Environmental Law and Policy Center, which worked with Illinois government to expand Amtrak in the state.

The U.S. Senate is considering legislation to invest more in Amtrak and high-speed trains. At this point, the Northeast corridor, where there were 25.4 million passengers last year, is the only high-speed route operational in the United States. The Federal Railroad Administration has designated 10 additional corridors with potential for high-speed routes, according to ELPC.

You can help
Senate Bill 294, re-introduced this session by Sens. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) and Trent Lott (R-Miss.), calls for $11.4 billion over 6 years for necessary improvements to infrastructure and new high-speed corridors. Ask your U.S. senators to co-sponsor this bill at http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/rail_bill_clone/wxb8w8e2f6iw87t.


Congressional round-up

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said she expects to pass legislation in the next few months to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy. But a larger Global Warming package, that might include a mandatory cap-and-trade provision, would have to come later in the session. Pelosi originally set a July deadline for climate change legislation, but apparently has been told by key committee chairmen that they don’t yet have support for more stringent laws.

• Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) says there is growing bi-partisan support for a mandated increase in corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for autos and light trucks. Markey’s bill would require a corporate average of 27.5 mpg by 2012 and 35 mpg by 2018, an increase of 4 mpg a year. Markey, chairman of the new House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, says he will push for a vote this year. Similar bills have been defeated in the past in the Energy and Commerce Committee, now chaired by Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.), a friend of the auto industry who has not to date backed a mandated increase. Markey’s bill has 22 Democrat and 19 Republican co-sponsors.

• Bills have been introduced in both houses to extend energy efficiency tax incentives to 2011 and 2012 for residential and commercial buildings. Included are heating and cooling systems, insulation, windows and doors. Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif) sponsored the Senate bill, while Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Jerry Weller (R-Ill.) introduced the House version.
(Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM)


News briefs

1. U.S. emissions to rise 20% by 2020, government report says
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are growing at a steady rate and are predicted to be 20% higher in 2020 than in 2000, under current emissions policy, says a draft of the U.S. Climate Action Report. The report is more than a year overdue to the United Nations. Spokesmen for the Bush Administration pointed out that the growth will be less than the growth of the economy, as the president has pledged. But critics say the increase shows the need for mandatory limits on GHG, something Bush advocated as governor of Texas and when he campaigned for president, but rejects now. (Source: Greenwire)

2. E.U. requires members to cut emissions 20% by 2020
The European Union agreed this month to reduce greenhouse gases 20% from 1990 levels by 2020. The bloc also agreed to generate 20% of its power from renewable sources by the same date. The second vote required a compromise because Poland and the Czech Republic are so reliant on carbon fuels. So E.U. members will get different targets depending on their circumstances. Also, a goal was set to use 10% biofuels for transportation. (Source: Greenwire)

3. Britain drafts strongest law yet, cutting GHG 60% by 2050
Britain has become the first nation to propose binding legislation to enforce a large cut in carbon emissions – 60% by 2050. If approved, it would be the first time a country has set legally binding carbon targets, in which failure to reach those goals would land the government before a judge, who would determine sanctions. The law includes cap-and-trade and requires 5-year carbon budgets planned 15 years ahead. Prime Minister Tony Blair termed this a revolution in how Britons would drive, heat their homes, run their businesses and schedule vacation flights. Concern about Global Warming has made climate change a hot issue in the coming election for prime minister, with each party trying to “out-green” the other. (Source: New York Times)

4. TXU buyers plan two carbon-capture projects
The partners involved in the takeover of TXU Corp. said they will build two integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) demonstration plants that will capture carbon dioxide. The new Texas Energy Future Holdings Limited Partnership said it wants to explore technology to generate cleaner, affordable and reliable power in Texas. Proposals from companies wanting to build the plants will go before TXU’s new Sustainable Energy Advisory Board, which includes members from the Natural Resources Defense Council and Environmental Defense, as well as utility customers, state economic development officials and representatives of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. (Source: E&E News PM)

5. Hybrid sales up 28%, dominated by Toyota Prius
Sales of hybrid cars rose nearly 30% in the U.S. in 2006, but growth is starting to slow. Toyota Prius, the most fuel-efficient of the hybrids, captured almost 43% of the new hybrid sales, as consumers bought over 254,000 hybrid vehicles, according to retail sales data. Federal tax incentives for Toyota hybrids are being phased out because of the high number sold. Toyota will begin its own incentives, such as interest-free loans, and is starting its first advertising campaign for Prius. The company predicts these steps will drive growth of 70% in the coming year. Prius gets about 60 mpg. (Source: Reuters PlanetArk)

6. Small nuclear war could block Global Warming
For those who always like to look at the bright side, a small nuclear war could have a cooling effect on the planet, scientists reported at a recent American Geophysical Society conference. Of course, the problems would outweigh any benefits, they said. Some parts of the planet could become much colder than others, like during the Little Ice Age in the 17th century, when glaciers covered much of Northern Europe. Thick, dark clouds in the upper atmosphere could block the sun’s rays for a decade, which would wreak havoc on agriculture, they said. And then, of course, there would be death and radiation sickness. (Source: Greenwire)

7. International Polar Year starts new research at the poles
Mapping the permafrost thaw, studying marine life, and investigating the health of people, penguins and polar bears will all be part of a massive research project in the Arctic and Antarctic, which kicked off this month. Some 50,000 experts will conduct 228 projects to learn more about how Global Warming is changing the planet. Climate change is most evident at the poles and the Arctic is warming at twice the global average. The research will continue for two years. For more, see IPY’s Web site at www.ipy.org. (Sources: Reuters PlanetArk and Greenwire)


Do something
Nearly 1,000 rallies and events are being scheduled around the country as part of a National Day for Climate Action that kicks off Earth Day on Saturday, April 14. In Chicago, a major rally is scheduled for 12-2 p.m. at the Daley Center, 100 N. Dearborn. Check out www.StepItUp2007.org to learn what’s planned for your area. Get involved. Show your support for reducing emissions 80% by 2050.

If you haven’t done so yet, please send a message to Congress with Al Gore when he testifies before House and Senate committees next week. On Friday he was closing in on 300,000 and hoped to be able to take 350,000 messages with him March 21, to convince the Congress to take strong action now. Sign up at www.algore.com/cards.html

Ragweed, poison ivy, malaria love Global Warming
Hay fever suffers will be bombarded with pollen as temperatures and CO2 concentrations rise. Poison ivy will be much more virulent, too. Not to mention more deadly diseases that are migrating to places that have not seen them before.

A study at the University of Oklahoma found that when temperatures were artificially raised, ragweed pollen increased by 84%. A single ragweed plant now releases up to a billion pollen grains, according to the National Wildlife Federation, so that will put it close to 2 billion.

At Duke University, scientists pumped carbon dioxide into several areas of forest, raising CO2 levels to about 585 ppm, close to what is anticipated in 2050 if emissions continue unchanged. That is “a level never reached in all of human history,” Duke’s dean of Earth Sciences, William Schlesinger, told National Wildlife. Today we are at about 380 ppm and counting.

After 5 years, the Duke scientists found that poison ivy was growing at 2½ times its normal rate. It also contained a more powerful version of the chemical that causes the rash that affects 80% of the people who come in contact with it.

Risk of more deadly diseases
Higher temperatures also increase disease-bearing insects, like mosquitoes, and allow them to migrate toward the poles and to higher ground. It’s likely the tick population will increase as well, causing more Lyme disease and other tick-borne illnesses.

A World Health Organization report estimates that in the year 2000 about 154,000 deaths around the world could be attributed to disease outbreaks and other conditions caused by climate change, reports the Los Angeles Times. The temperature change of about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 150 years was enough to alter disease patterns across the globe, the paper said.

Malaria, dengue fever spreading
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns of significant loss of life from malaria, dengue fever and encephalitis, all mosquito-borne diseases that are on the move. The panel predicts as much as 65% of the world’s population will become at risk for malaria. Doctors at Harvard Medical School linked U.S. outbreaks of these diseases and hantavirus to climate change.

There were outbreaks of malaria in Houston each of the past two years and one at Disney World in 1997. Mosquitoes carrying the disease have been found as far north as New York, according the doctors, and mosquitoes carrying dengue fever, for which there is no vaccine, reached Chicago.

Extreme weather events caused by warming, such as heat waves, will cause more deaths worldwide. Droughts will increase malnutrition in poor countries, as well as force people to use unsafe water. And increased flooding will cause more illness, as fertilizer, sewage and water-borne diseases get in the drinking water.

Also, hot temperatures in summer will cause more low-level ozone to linger, causing respiratory and cardiac problems, as fewer cold fronts come by to clean the air.

Crops will be affected too
Warming also poses a threat to agriculture. Insects in the southern part of the U.S. are likely to spread north, says the Union of Concerned Scientists. The bean leaf beetle that attacks soybeans is already migrating. Another one likely to spread, according to National Wildlife, is the corn earworm, one of North America’s most destructive pests that attacks not only corn, but tomatoes, cabbage and other vegetables. Warmer weather could allow it to live year-round.

To combat these pests, farmers are likely to use more pesticides, further damaging the environment. Warmer temperatures and higher CO2 will cause crops to grow faster, but they won’t be as nutritious.

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences forecasts an 80% drop in U.S. wine production because of an increase in very hot days.

And as the interior of the continent becomes drier, the Midwest likely will be less suitable for corn and wheat, while Canada probably will grow more, according to National Wildlife.

Over the next 50 years, warming is expected to make much of the U.S. too hot to grow wheat, according to the Sierra Club, and that crop will likely shift to Canada and Alaska.

And U.S. corn production could drop by as much as 42%, says the EPA, at a time when there will be more pressure on corn for ethanol.

(Thanks to the Sierra Club for the information about IPCC and the Harvard Medical study.)

Congressional round-up

• House Democrats are re-introducing a bill that calls for a “Manhattan Project” for high-efficiency vehicles, building on existing federal research of hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies. The sponsors, including Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), want to revive a Clinton-era partnership with the auto industry to produce a prototype that gets 80 mpg. The bill also would establish a national biofuel infrastructure, increase transit funding, and make government take the lead in using alternative fuels.

• Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) told the Senate Finance Committee that Congress should establish a national cap-and-trade program to replace a patchwork of regional agreements like the new one among Western state governors, something Finance Chair Max Baucus (D-Mont.) has called for. Schweitzer also said the future viability of coal rests with successful carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Representing a coal state, he asked for $10 billion for CCS research. Princeton Prof. Robert Socolow, well known in Global Warming circles, agreed and asked that coal-to-liquid fuel not be allowed unless capture and sequestration is required.

• Bills were introduced in both houses requiring an inventory of potential spots to store carbon deep underground. They ask the U.S. Geological Survey, DOE and EPA to calculate storage capacity in all 50 states, as well as where hard-to-reach oil and gas could be recovered by carbon injections, a technique used since the 1970s. The first large-scale sequestration project began in 1996 in the North Sea and now pumps a million tons a year deep under the ocean. IPCC estimates there is between 200 and 2,000 gigabites of storage capacity worldwide.
(Sources: Greenwire, Environment & Energy Daily and E&E PM)

News briefs

1. TXU sale would reduce number of new coal-fired plants
Shortly after a Texas judge blocked fast-track approval for 11 new TXU coal-fired power plants, a takeover plan specified that 8 of the plants would be cancelled and that under new ownership TXU would reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The company also would support a $400 million energy-efficiency program and endorse the U.S. Climate Action Partnership’s call for mandatory caps on CO2 emissions. The TXU plan to build 11 coal-fired plants had sparked an enormous protest by environmental groups, citizens and some local governments and led to a drop in the stock price. Private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Texas Pacific Group, with help from Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros., Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, offered $45 billion, in the biggest private equity deal in history. With several key players concerned about climate change, they brought in Environmental Defense and the Natural Resources Defense Council to help craft and environmental plan to satisfy the opposition. The deal isn’t complete yet, as TXU can solicit alternate bids till April 16 and Credit Suisse has offered to fund $40.2 billion of a competing bid. (Sources: Environmental Defense, New York Times)

2. Global Warming already causing ‘significant harm'
"Significant harm from climate change is already occurring, and further damages are a certainty," says a new report from the UN Foundation and Sigma XI Scientific Research Society. The report says “unmanageable” climate change will occur unless the global average temperature is kept to 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius above 1750 levels and CO2 in the atmosphere is limited to 450 and 500 parts per million. Global CO2 emissions would need to peak near current levels by 2020, and then fall by a third by 2100. Even with immediate, aggressive efforts, the world is likely to see more severe droughts and storms, a rise in sea level, and shifts in the range of plants and animals, the report predicts. Recommended steps to include:
• Quadrupling public and private spending on energy research,
• Improving energy efficiency for cars and buildings,
• Expanding the use of biofuels and public transportation,
• Promoting reforestation, and
• Requiring any new coal-fired power plants to be constructed so they can be retrofitted for carbon capture and sequestration.
The report also urges governments to plan for "environmental refugees" and to limit development on floodplains and coastal land. Check out what's forecast for your area on an interactive weather map for the year 2100 at www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2007-02-27-scientists-un_x.htm (Sources: Greenwire, USA Today)

3. Climate change could drop Great Lakes as much as 5 feet
Global Warming could lower water levels in the Great Lakes by 5 feet in the next 100 years, according to a draft of the IPCC report due out in April. Lakes Michigan and Huron would be most affected, according to scientists from NOAA. The problem would come from a lack of winter ice, leading to more evaporation. Warming could adversely affect salmon and trout, which are cold-water fish. (Source: Greenwire)

4. Europeans more concerned than us about Global Warming
People in Europe worry more about climate change than Americans, according to a poll by France 24 TV. While 54% of French and 40% of British, Germans and Italians said Global Warming is one of the top two global concerns that affects them, only 30% of Americans did. Western European countries have similar weather patterns, and a 2003 heat wave killed thousands in six countries, said Nick Pidgeon of the University of Cardiff, while the U.S. never has uniform temperatures. Also, the U.S. East Coast, where decisions are made, didn’t warm as much as the rest of the world in the 20th Century, said Penn State climatologist Michael Mann. (Source: Greenwire)

5. Madrid temperatures could top 120 degrees by century’s end
Summer heat in Madrid, Spain, could hit 50 degrees Celsius (122 F) by the year 2100, according to a new report. Rainfall could drop in some southern parts of the country by 40%. Spain will be among those hardest hit by Global Warming, its Environment Ministry’s report said. Steps to be taken to curtail GHG emissions should include discouraging city driving, increasing taxes on high-emission vehicles and providing better public transportation, the report said. Farmers should be discouraged from using nitrogen-based fertilizers, which produce nitrous oxide (a GHG), and homes should phase out coal-fired boilers. Commercial buildings need better efficiency standards, the report said. (Source: Reuters PlanetArk)

6. $2 billion a year till 2030 could cut emissions to 1990 levels
It will cost the U.S. utility sector about $2 billion a year for 20 years to cut GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2030, according to a report by the Electric Power Research Institute. The study said the reductions would take about 20 years, regardless of how much is spent. Prices could be passed on the customers, it said. David Hawkins, of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the changes would not come soon enough. The report calls for 50 new nuclear power reactors by 2030, as well as more wind and solar. Spending $2B annually would advance clean technology to the point where it becomes competitive, and would draw in private investment, said EPRI chair Jeff Sterba. Electric power companies emit about one-third of the world’s GHG. Older coal-fired plants run at about 33% efficiency. The study sets a goal of 49% efficiency. (Source: NY Times, Greenwire)

Do something

The League of Conservation Voters is working to influence candidates for president in 2008 about Global Warming. LCV’s Heat Is On campaign is asking for monthly donations to sustain their efforts to put workers on the ground in key primary states like Iowa and Nevada, question candidates at public meetings, and assure that climate change is a key issue in this campaign. If you can’t be there yourself, support those who can, by setting up a donation at www.secure.ga4.org/01/heatison_donate_sustainer/ncp_mhpSyrGeP

You also can help influence Congress by sending a message with Al Gore, the pre-eminent leader on the Global Warming issue, when he testifies before the Senate and House later this month. Go to www.algore.com/cards.html and send a message to your elected representatives.

Why is there still any doubt about climate change?
“If you believe in Global Warming…” began Jane Wells, the West Coast CNBC business reporter the other day. A CNN anchor spoke similar words not long ago. And many TV interviewers still seem to be stuck at the “is Global Warming real?” stage and unable to move on to the “What should we do about it?” stage. They drag out someone to give “the other side,” and then give them equal time, which is no service at all to the viewers.

They don’t look for crazies who will say the Earth is flat or contrarians who deny that AIDS is a serious epidemic. So why are they still looking to present “both sides” equally on climate change? Are they as woefully ignorant as they appear or are they coddling the oil, gas and coal industries? Probably both. They certainly don’t point out if their guest gets funding from Big Oil.

We know Exxon Mobil has long financed groups to create confusion by publicly denying that Global Warming is mostly caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

Now we learn that the American Enterprise Institute has offered $10,000 (plus expenses) to scientists or economists who will refute parts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s comprehensive report released Feb. 2. Exxon has given AEI more than $1.6 million and its former CEO, Lee Raymond, is vice chairman of the board, reports The Guardian in England, which broke the story.

(The oil company’s new CEO, Rex Tillerson, after release of the IPCC report, acknowledged the Global Warming problem is real and said funding of such groups has stopped.)

The IPCC report is a review of scientific research, involving 2,500 scientists, from 113 countries, done over 6 years. It was vetted by more than 100 governments before publication, so if anything, you can bet it’s very watered down.

But this “rent-a-scientist” program is now likely to produce TV guests to espouse the “other side” for some time to come.

The IPCC report
The panel’s report, “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis,” is a summary for policymakers, the first of several reports to be released throughout the year. It is not some sensationalist speculation about disasters to come. It is dully written and edited to death. Some parts of earlier drafts have been taken out – like the warning the Great Barrier Reef will die off. It carefully points out when there is enough evidence to predict a trend with certainty and when there isn’t. For example, in forecasting the rise in sea levels (7 to 32 inches by 2100), it doesn’t include uncertainties about feedback (like melting ice leading to more melting ice) or the full effects of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets’ role. (Though it does note that after 2100 contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is expected to contribute substantially to the sea level rise.)

The report, which builds on three earlier ones, the most recent in 2001, includes new observations, in part from satellites, and draws on many more simulation models, as well as some of the 2001 predictions that have come true. If you want to read the 21-page summary, you can find it at www.ipcc.ch.

What has changed so far
You’ve no doubt seen and read news accounts about the report’s predictions. Here are some of the its observations of what has already happened:
• Global concentrations of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide (all greenhouse gases) have increased markedly since 1750. Fossil fuels and agriculture are the main culprits.
• 11 of the past 12 years are among the warmest since 1880.
• The global average temperature increase from the second half of the 19th century to the period 2001-2005 is .76 degrees Celsius (roughly double that for Fahrenheit)
• Global average sea level rose 1.8 mm/year 1961-2003 and faster from 1993-2003, as oceans absorbed heat added to the climate system, causing sea water to expand.
• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined in both hemispheres, contributing to the rise in sea level.
• Since 1978, Arctic sea ice shrunk 2.7% per decade, with summer ice shrinking 7.4% per decade. Temperatures at the top of permafrost increased as much as 3 degrees Celsius since the 1980s (important because melting permafrost can release methane, a potent GHG).
• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased. Long-term trends from 1900-2005 show an increase in precipitation in eastern North and South America, northern Europe and north and central Asia.
• There are more intense and longer droughts in wider areas since the 1970s, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics.
• Mid-latitude westerly winds have strengthened since the 1960s.
• There are changes in extreme temperatures over the past 50 years. Cold and frost is less frequent, hot days and nights and heat waves more frequent.
• There’s an increase in intense tropical cyclone (hurricane) activity in the North Atlantic since 1970. Variability and lack of observation prior to satellites complicate long-term detection.

Most of the observed increase in global temperature since the mid-20th century is “very likely” (90-99% certainly) due to observed increases in human-caused GHG concentrations, the report said. Human influence now extends to ocean warming, continental average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns, it said. Volcanic activity and aerosols have offset some warming that would otherwise have taken place.

To quote the report: “The observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the conclusion it is extremely unlikely that global climate change in the past 50 years can be explained without external forcing [human causes].”

Just in case there is still any doubt.

Congressional Round-up

• Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) reintroduced a bill to cut GHG emissions across the economy 65% by mid-century. It also mandates that 20% of energy come from renewable sources by 2020 and requires all gas stations to have E85 (an ethanol mix) available by 2016.

• Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) offered legislation to conserve energy in federal buildings by setting up an Office of High Performance Buildings in the General Accounting Office. GAO is the nation’s largest landlord, and its buildings use 40% more energy per square foot than the private sector. Others have introduced somewhat similar bills, including Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) and Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.)

• Rep. Tom Udall (D-N.M.) has a bill to require utilities to get 20% or their power from renewables by 2020.

• Sen. Barbara Boxer, chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee, may not have the votes to get strong legislation to cap GHG out of her committee. Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) has said he’d vote “no” on an economy-wide bill today, and Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who is worried about the coal industry, wants to wait and watch California to see how that state fares with its 20% by 2020 law. Sen. Warner may be a swing vote and hasn’t said how he would vote on mandatory caps. “No” votes would include Sens. John Inhofe (R-Okla.), who has called Global Warming a media hoax, John Voinovich (R-Ohio), and 5 other Republicans. Boxer’s strategy will be to pass a series of small bills, starting with energy efficiency. Her own bill calls for an 80% cut by 2050 and would face very tough going.

• Al Gore has agreed to testify before both House and Senate committees on March 21. The former VP will appear before Boxer’s committee then testify at a joint hearing of the House Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee and House Science and Technology’s Energy and Environment Subcommittee.
(Sources: Greenwire, E&E Daily, E&E PM)

News briefs

1. Efficiency and renewables could cut emissions 60-80%
Energy efficiency, wind, biofuels and other renewable energy sources could reduce GHG emissions 60-80% by 2050 given the right incentives, according to a new peer-reviewed report by the American Solar Energy Society. A far more coordinated effort to improve energy efficiency in homes, offices and industrial buildings could help keep U.S. carbon emissions stable over the next 20 years, the report says. And renewable sources, such as wind, biomass, solar panels and geothermal would contribute to the reduction. By 2030, renewables could displace coal-powered plants and provide about 40% of U.S. energy, up from 2.3% today, according to the report. It can be found at www.ases.org/climatechange/index.htm. (Source: E&E News PM)

2. Emissions still going up in Northeast, despite pledges
A report by Environment Northeast says regional leaders have failed to reduce greenhouse gases as promised 5 years ago. In 2001 New England governors and Eastern Canada premiers pledged to cut GHG to 10% below 1990 levels by 2020, but with emissions still going up it appears they could be 50% higher by that date instead. The report recommends steps to get back on track, including identifying places to store carbon underground and creating and enforcing strict building energy-efficiency codes. Massachusetts, the biggest CO2 emitter in New England, will now join the effort under its new governor, Deval Patrick. (Source: Greenwire, Boston Globe)

3. Worldwide concert ‘SOS’ to encourage activism this July
Al Gore is helping organize concerts in 6 cities across the world, with the hope of convincing people to take action to fight Global Warming. The events, scheduled for London, Kyoto, Rio de Janiero, Shanghai, Cape Town and Washington, D.C., will include film and TV with the music to get their message across. Organizers say the July 7 ‘SOS’ concerts will be bigger than LiveAid or Live8 and could reach 2 billion people. (Source: Greenwire)

4. Poll of pols shows parties split on Warming’s causes
A poll of 113 members of Congress found that 95% of the Democrats and just 13% of the Republicans thought it had been “proved beyond a reasonable doubt” that the Earth is warming because of man-made causes. The poll was conducted by the National Journal and released this month. Asked about solutions, 83% of the Democrats and 42% of the Republicans prefer a cap-and-trade system; both sides rank a carbon tax as the least preferred option. Alternative fuels got 95% support from Democrats and 71% of Republicans. Nuclear energy got more support from Republicans (80%) than from Democrats (58%). (Source: E&E News PM)

5. Virgin’s Branson offers $25 million prize for new technology
Virgin Corp. CEO Richard Branson, who earlier put up $3 million of his airline’s profits for research into new technologies to fight Global Warming, has upped the ante to $25 million for a scientist (or team) who can come up with a way to remove 1 billion metric tons of CO2 a year from the atmosphere. Renowned climate scientist James Hansen from NASA will head a judging panel. Al Gore was with Branson in London when he made the announcement.

6. British Petroleum to invest $6 billion in renewable energy
BP will launch a series of wind power projects this year as part of a
plan to put $6 billion into renewable energy. The company said it will produce 550 megawatts of wind power in Colorado, California, Texas and North Dakota. “This is a profitable business for us,” Bob Lukefahr, president of BP Alternative Energy North America, told the Houston Chronicle. Each megawatt can power about 800 homes. In related news, GE Energy Financial Services has invested about $1.5 billion into renewable energy, 70% of it in wind, and said it hopes to increase its commitment to $3 billion by year’s end. (Source: Houston Chronicle)

Do something

Check out www.StepitiUp007.org for information about a series of Global Warming rallies around the country planned for April 14. Sign up and get involved. Tell Congress to cut CO2 80% by 2050, the reduction that scientists advocate.

California: Trend-setter leads the way on climate

I remember a book, in the early ‘70s, called “The Late, Great State of California.” The main thrust was the state split off from the continent in a massive earthquake. But it also pointed out how important California was, and that often the state started trends that then moved east across the country. Let’s hope that’s the case with mitigation of greenhouse gases.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, and his “Republic of California,” (pronounce that with a hard “i”) are forging ahead and not waiting for the federal government to act on Global Warming.

In his State of the State address this month, the governor ordered a 10% reduction in GHG emissions from motor vehicles between now and 2020. This move could triple the use of the renewable fuels, according to Greenwire.

Transportation accounts for more than 40% of California’s GHG emissions, according to the Los Angeles Times.

State regulators will develop low-carbon fuel standards to increase the sale of clean fuels and encourage the purchase of flex-fuel and hybrid cars. Fuel manufacturers would have a number of ways to meet the criteria, including a market to trade carbon credits.

Last summer, the legislature passed a law to cut overall GHG by 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. The new executive order will help the state reach its goal. Additional cuts will come from power plants and forestry.

Other steps taken
California has been ahead of the curve. An earlier executive order, in 2005, set goals to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050. The 2006 law, for the short range, is even stronger.

California also bars investor-owned utilities from long-term contracts if emissions exceed those of the cleanest gas-driven plants.

The first state to attempt to regulate CO2 tailpipe emissions, California’s Pavley law requires automakers to reduce the average emissions of the cars it sells in California by 30%, beginning in 2009. Light trucks and SUVs must meet the same standard by 2016. (That law is being challenged in court by the auto industry so it hasn’t taken effect.)

In August, Schwarzenegger signed legislation to make solar panels a standard option for new-home buyers by 2012. State utility regulators established a $5,500 rebate for builders who install such systems, which cost $20,000. Federal law gives them a $2,000 tax credit.

The state recently added electronics chargers and remote controls to a long list of appliances that must be energy efficient.

Wouldn’t it be nice of all our governors were that eager to take on Global Warming.

Climate crisis reports
So, why is Arnold, the former Hummer driver, so willing to act on climate change? It’s likely related to the release of a couple of studies about the impact Global Warming would have on California. One, from the University of California-Berkeley, said limiting emissions would increase the gross state product by $60 million and create 20,000 clean technology jobs. Another report, by the California Climate Change Center and the Union for Concerned Scientists, warned of coastal flooding, water shortages for drinking and agriculture, health problems, more wildfires, heat waves and damage to the economy resulting from an expected increase in temperature.

More specifically, it said if the temperature goes up 5.5 to 8 degrees F (the middle scenario), sea levels could rise 14-22 inches, wildfires could increase by 55%, and 70-80% of the Sierra snowpack could be lost, as well as 30% of pine forest yields. Heat-wave days in major urban areas could shoot up 2.5 to 4 times, causing 2-6 times more deaths. And the number of critically dry years could double. To read more about this study, see www.climatechoices.org.

California is not insignificant. It has the world’s 6th largest economy and it furnishes half our country’s fruits and vegetables, not to mention it’s wine business (the largest in the U.S.), tourism, ports, and, of course, the center of world-wide entertainment. Steps it takes will make a difference and are likely to be copied by others.


Congressional round-up

• A plan to make utilities get 15% of their power from renewables by 2020 is one of the goals of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Committee Chair Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) argued that more than 20 states already have renewable portfolio standards (RPS). Other goals include energy efficiency; extension of tax credits to 2017 for renewable energy, biofuels and fuel-efficient vehicles; and more research by the Department of Energy.

• Senate Commerce Committee Democrats support a bill to increase corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards to 35 mpg by the 2019 model year. Chair Dan Inouye (D-Hawaii) sponsored the bill, which could reduce GHG emissions 18% by 2025. The White House opposes Congress setting mileage standards and wants the Transportation Department to have that authority. Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), who previous opposed CAFE legislation, has his own bill to increase efficiency to 40 mph by 2017, but gives authority to the Transportation Dept. to set mileage standards for the next 5-6 years. Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) said he plans to hold hearings on CAFE next week in his Energy Committee.

• Reps. John Olver (D-Mass.) and Wayne Gilchrest (R-Md.) introduced a House companion bill to the Lieberman-McCain Climate Stewardship Act. This version differs slightly by asking for more stringent emissions cuts by 2050 and does not specifically promote new technologies.

• Sens. Bingaman and Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) plan a series of private meetings with other Senate offices to try to reach consensus on global warming. The meetings, which start Feb. 2, will be held every second week. Spector, from a coal state, has twice voted against mandatory limits on GHG but signaled a possible position change in 2005.


News briefs

1. What Bush said – and didn’t say – in the State of the Union
The speech was more about energy independence than Global Warming. The president called for a 20% cut in the projected use of gasoline in 10 years by increasing production of ethanol and other alternative fuels to five times the current rate. Included in those fuels is liquefied coal, which causes twice as many GHG as gasoline. He also called for increasing fuel-efficiency for cars and trucks by 4% a year, starting in 2010 for cars and 2012 for trucks. Cars and trucks contribute one-third of greenhouse gases nationwide. He said nothing about power plant emissions nor did he set a goal for reducing greenhouse gases. Even with implementation of Bush’s plan, there will likely be a 14% increase in GHG emissions by 2017 as energy demand rises, said Philip Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust. (Source: New York Times)

2. President then signed executive order on GHG
In an executive order signed after the speech, Bush ordered gasoline use in the federal fleet reduced by 2% annually through 2015 by using alternative fuels in flex-fuel cars. He also called for reduction of GHG by curbing energy “intensity” 30% by 2015. Intensity means in relation to the growth of the economy, not in real amounts. (Source: Greenwire)

3. Biofuels will have to be imported to meet projected goals
Biofuel imports will be needed to meet the goals outlined by the president last week, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Thursday. Tariffs on ethanol likely won’t be extended past 2008, he said. Meanwhile, Brazil, the largest exporter of ethanol, is eager to help solve the problem. Brazil makes its ethanol from sugar cane, which is the cheapest process. But tariffs have discourage ethanol imports to the U.S. (Sources: E&ENewsPM and PlanetArk.)

4. School district backs down on restricting Gore film
A school board in Washington state reversed itself after the organization Progressive Majority generated 18,000 e-mails to board members in about 24 hours. The School Board in Federal Way, Wash., had ruled that teachers who show the “An Inconvenient Truth” must also present a “credible, opposing view.” That ruling followed the complaint by a parent who believes the Earth is 14,000 years old, and said the film presented a “cockeyed view” and that “the Bible says that in the end of time everything will burn up, but that perspective isn’t in [the film].” In a related story about the film, the National Science Teachers Assoc. refused to help distribute 50,000 donated copies of the movie. Producer Laurie David said it was because they were concerned the oil industry might pull some of its funding. She noted the group had distributed movies by oil companies. ”An Inconvenient Truth” garnered two Academy Award nominations. (Source: Greenwire)

5. Sea levels likely to continue rising for 1,000 years
Sea levels could rise 11 to 16.9 inches this century, nearly 3 feet more in the 2100s, and another 11 to 31 inches by 2300, according to a draft U.N. climate report due out next week. The increases would then begin to taper off, but seas would continue to rise for 1,000 years, even if GHG emissions are reduced in the near future. The draft by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also predicts a temperature increase of 3.6 to 8.1 degrees F above pre-industrial levels, with a best estimate of 5.4 degrees, if CO2 emissions are stabilized a 45% above current levels, according to those who have seen the document. (Source: E&ENewsPM)

6. GAO: Alternative energy today won’t cut into oil imports
Federal spending on alternative energy is insufficient stop the growing reliance on foreign oil over the next 25 years, according a report from the Government Accounting Office. Unless there is dramatic change in energy policy and R&D spending, it is likely U.S. dependence on foreign oil will grow, the report said. Imports now fill two-thirds of the country’s oil demand, compared with 40% in 1980. The Department of Energy’s R&D budget fell more than 85% from 1978 to 2005, from $5.5 billion to just $793 million. (Source: Greenwire)

7. American executives less worried about Global Warming
A survey of CEOs from around the globe, unveiled at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, showed on average 40% were concerned about Global Warming. But only 18% from America were. Highest concern was among the Japanese execs (70%) and South Koreans (60%), followed by Germany, China, Latin America and Britain. The U.S. was near the bottom along with Italy and Russia. 83% of the Japanese, 51% of South Koreans and 26% of Americans said their companies had invested in solutions. (Source: New York Times)


Do something
It’s time to go carbon-neutral. You can offset the CO2 you produce by going to www.carbonfund.org. Use their calculator to estimate the carbon you produce and offset it by making a donation. You can choose whether your money goes to alternative energy, reforestation or energy efficiency. Offset your carbon footprint. I’ve done it. Al Gore has done it. You should too.

Were dinosaurs wiped out by Global Warming?

Well, no. The theory still stands that dinosaurs disappeared because a large asteroid collided with Earth. But several other mass extinctions tens or hundreds of millions of years ago may have been due to greenhouse gases making the planet too hot.

I want to share with you information from an article by in Scientific American about a new theory that Global Warming killed off large portions of life on Earth – animals and plants on both land and sea – and that it happened more than once. It could happen again, if the oceans get too hot.

The theory is that extensive volcanic activity threw out enormous amounts of CO2 and methane. These greenhouse gases then caused rapid and intense Global Warming. As the oceans heated up they were less able to absorb oxygen, which destabilized the “chemocline” between the oxygen-filled surface and the bottom of the ocean, where little purple and green bacteria produce hydrogen sulfide. The poisonous H2S rose to the ocean’s surface and displaced the oxygen, suffocating sea life. It then rose into air, causing massive death on land. Then, just to finish things off, the H2S moved up into the atmosphere, attacking the ozone shield and allowing ultraviolet rays to add to the destruction below. Nice.

Many millions of years ago
This is believed to have happened at least twice – about 250 million years ago at the end of the Permian period and 50 million years ago at the end of the Triassic period. There is also some reason to believe warming caused other extinctions, including a minor one at the end of the Paleocene era, 54 million years ago.

In the Permian and Paleocene periods, we know that CO2 in the atmosphere increased to about 1,000 parts per million. Today we are at about 385 ppm, with predictions for a rapid increase. If Global Warming isn’t curtailed, we’re heading for 900 ppm by the end of the next century.

During the mass extinctions, the majority of life was destroyed and it took thousands, perhaps millions, of years for it to be replenished. Permian, the largest extinction, took out 90% of ocean dwellers and 70% of plants, animals and insects on land.

This is not sci fi
What takes this out of the realm of science fiction and makes it a scientific theory is that there is evidence to back it up.

Biomarkers in ocean sediment and rocks show chemical evidence of an ocean-wide bloom of H2S-consuming bacteria. And carbon isotope records confirm that CO2 concentrations skyrocketed immediately before the start of the extinctions and stayed high for hundreds of thousands to several million years.

Fossil analysis shows the Permian and Triassic extinctions were drawn-out processes spanning hundreds of thousands of years. And new carbon isotope evidence suggests the biosphere suffered a long series of environmental hits rather than a single, cataclysmic event coming from outer space, where there is sudden die-off and rapid recovery.

So when a non-believer, like Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), says, sure, there is Global Warming, but it has been a lot warmer in the distant past, you can say yes, it has been, but it wiped out most of the life on Earth.

If you want to read the whole article, by Peter D. Ward, find it at www.sciam.com/issue.cfm?issueDate=Oct-06. The title is “Impact from the Deep.”


Congressional round-up

• The House voted Thursday to roll back $6 billion in oil industry tax breaks, set a fee for deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and recoup royalties lost to the government because of a mistake. The vote was 264-163. Democrats said the bill could raise $14 billion, mostly for alternative energy. The bill is expected to have a tougher time passing the closely divided Senate. The president opposes it.

• The Sanders-Boxer bill, the “gold standard” according to co-sponsor Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), calls for cutting GHG 80% by mid-century. Its goal is to stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere by capping emissions at 1990 levels by 2020 and increase cuts each year until 2050. It lets the EPA require further cuts if global CO2 concentrations exceed 450 ppm. Co-sponsor is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). This bill has the support of many environmental groups.

• Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) reintroduced their Climate Stewardship Act mandating reductions in CO2 emissions across all sectors. It calls for stabilization at 2000 levels and would gradually lower the cap to one-third of 2000 levels by 2050. It allows trade of carbon credits, including borrowing and offsets, to ease the cost of meeting regulations. Some environmental groups say it doesn’t go far enough and encourages nuclear energy.

• Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-Calif.) introduced the first of five energy bills. This one would cut emissions from power plants. It would create a cap-and-trade system and would limit CO2 emissions to 75% of projected 2020 levels. She has the support of 6 power companies.

• Sen. Boxer introduced two bills to increase use of cellulosic ethanol and fuel-efficient motor vehicles. The first asks for $1 billion for R&D and $1 billion for infrastructure to sell the ethanol. The second bill tells the government to buy fuel-efficient fleet cars. Boxer, chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee, plans hearings on Global Warming Jan. 30.

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) set up a select committee on Global Warming to emphasize the issue’s importance. The move was seen by some as a push to House Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.), whose support of the auto industry is a concern. Dingell said he will hold hearings and has invited former Vice President Al Gore to testify. Pelosi wants all committees to bring climate change legislation to the floor by July 4.

• A new coalition of Evangelical Christian leaders and prominent scientists went to Washington last week to ask for action to stop Global Warming.
(Sources: Greenwire, Environment and Energy Daily, E&E Daily PM and AP)

News briefs

1. Last year was warmest in United States history
The average temperature in 2006, in the continental 48, is the warmest on record, according to NOAA. The average was 55 degrees, 2.2 degrees F above the mean for the 20th century and .07 degrees above the previous record, in 1998. The past 9 years were all in the hottest 25 recorded. Worldwide, 2006 was the sixth warmest, according to the United Nations. Last year also set the record for wildfires in the United States. (Sources: E&E News PM, AP)

2. Corporations join in call for strict emissions limits
10 big companies, including GE, DuPont and Caterpiller, are expected to call Monday for a firm limit on carbon dioxide emissions that would result in a cut of 10% to 30% from current levels in 15 years. They will ask that government action include a cap-and-trade system and that no new plants be built that can’t easily capture and store carbon. Other companies in the coalition are Alcoa, BP, Duke Energy, FPL, Lehman Brothers, PG&E and PNM Resources. Environmental Defense, Natural Resources Defense Council, Pew Center on Global Climate Change and World Resources Institute are working with them. (Source: New York Times)

3. State of the Union speech to address Global Warming
President Bush is expected to speak about Global Warming in his State of the Union speech Tuesday, but he will disappoint British officials who were hopeful he might agree to mandatory caps on emissions. The White House said he won’t, and still favors voluntary steps, but that he will encourage the development of alternative fuels like hydrogen and ethanol. Prime Minister Tony Blair met last month with the president, hoping to get an agreement on climate change before Blair leaves office. (Sources: League of Conservation Voters, Greenwire)

4. Doomsday Clock moves ahead; climate change cited
Because of climate change and global nuclear instability, the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock was moved two minutes ahead and now rests at 5 minutes to midnight. It hasn’t been that close since the Cold War. This is the first time climate change was included as a specific threat to civilization. The scientists who made the decision said climate change is second only to nuclear annihilation as a threat to humanity. (Source: BBC News.com)

5. Sweden aims to eliminate fossil fuels by 2020
The Swedish government has plans to increase renewable energy from its current 26% and up its use of biofuels, in order to phase out fossil fuels in the next 13 years. Last year new cars running on alternative fuels increased to 15% from 1%, in part because of government incentives. Some cars run on subsidized methane, made from garbage, which is cheaper than gasoline. (Source: Greenwire)

6. Bears delay hibernation because of hot temperatures
Also in Sweden, bears at a safari park put off starting hibernation from the usual October till December because of record-high temperatures in the southern part of the country. In an unrelated story, Swedish scientists have developed navigational technology that plots the “greenest” route for cars to take, avoiding stoplights, traffic and high speed limits. Initial tests show the system can cut fuel consumption by 8.2%. (Source: Greenwire)


Do something

The League of Conservation Voters has set up a new Web site, www.heatison.org. Check it out. And for now, you can help by signing their petition to all candidates to make Global Warming a priority.

What is the best answer for clean auto fuel?
As plans are made for the nation’s first commercial cellulosic ethanol plant in Colorado, experts point out its advantages over corn ethanol, the main biofuel now produced in the U.S.

Cellulosic ethanol – which can come from sugar cane, switchgrass, poplar trees, cornstalks and many other plants – has the benefit of being much more abundant than corn and better for the environment. It also is more expensive.

Cellulosic ethanol could provide 100 billion gallons of fuel, replacing nearly half the 140 billion gallons of gasoline the nation now uses, according to the Rocky Mountain News. (If you’re wondering about the numbers, ethanol is less efficient.) By contrast, traditional corn ethanol, with a capacity for just 20 billion gallons, could replace only 14 percent. The country’s 105 corn ethanol plants now produce just 5 billion gallons a year, the paper says.

Former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan reportedly told a Congressional hearing that cellulosic ethanol is the only alternative fuel that could make a dent in the nation’s gasoline consumption.

Environmentally, corn ethanol (when energy for production and distribution are included) only saves 10%-20% of the greenhouse gas emissions of gasoline, according to Scientific American, while cellulose can save between 65% and 90%.

But corn has strong lobbyists in states like Iowa and Illinois, so politically it has an edge over cellulose.

It’s expensive
Cost has been an issue for cellulose. Production (including taxes, transportation and distribution) costs $2.20 a gallon, double the cost of corn ethanol and nearly three times that of regular gasoline, according to the Rocky Mountain News. It also is a more complex process. Scientists have been studying it for years but, “Nobody wants to build the first plant,” David Wilson of Cornell University told the newspaper.

Financing has been a problem. Government incentives will be needed and the Energy Department has helped out with $3 million for the planned Colorado plant.

President George Bush, understanding the potential for cellulosic ethanol, wants to make it competitive with corn ethanol by 2012. The Congress has mandated production of 250 million gallons by 2013, which would require 6 to 10 plants, according to the Rocky Mountain News. Additional Congressional action is expected this year (see Congressional round-up below).

The U.S. Energy Department has promised $250 million to set up two bioenergy research centers, to focus mostly on cellulosic ethanol.

The plant now on the drawing board for Yuma, CO, would cost $50 million and is to be built in 2010 by PureVision Technology. The plan is to start with a $5 million prototype this year, according to the Rocky Mountain News.

Some Wall Street money is available for cellulosic ethanol as well. Goldman Sachs has invested $27 million in a Canadian company, Iogen, which is planning a plant near Ottowa.

Brazil is doing it
While cellulosic ethanol is new for North America, Brazil has produced it from sugar cane for years.

Most Brazilian fuel is gasohol, currently 23% ethanol by government mandate, according to Scientific American. But there is also pure ethanol, at pumps next to those with the mix. And the majority of news cars are now flex-fuel – they can use either fuel.

Brazil, the largest sugar cane grower in the world, produced about 282,000 barrels of ethanol a day in 2005 and expects to be up to 442,000 in 2010. Brazil also produces more than 2 million barrels of oil a day. But for cars, 40% of the fuel is homegrown ethanol. Sugar cane, which is plentiful and needs little attention, provides the cheapest ethanol in the world, says Scientific American. And GHG savings from sugar ethanol run around 90%.

Brazil plans to build an ethanol pipeline to its ports and export more of its biofuel. But in the U.S. government, seeing increasing imports from Brazil, imposed a tariff to protect homegrown corn ethanol, according to Scientific American.

More research
Some are investigating other biofuel technologies. British Petroleum said it will invest $500 million over the next decade in an Energy Bioscience Institute at a university in England or the U.S. And BP and DuPont are working with British Sugar to produce butanol – a different type of biofuel.

Chicken fat?
Meanwhile, two men in Missouri are building a $5 million biodiesel plant that will use chicken fat, which is plentiful in the area, with Tyson Foods nearby, according to the Chicago Tribune. They will mix the fat with soybean oil and produce an estimated 3 million gallons of biodiesel a year. Tyson, Purdue and Smithfield Foods are all setting up renewable energy divisions, in anticipation the market will grow.


Congressional round-up
• House Democratic leaders are planning a Jan. 18 vote on a multi-billion dollar rollback of tax and royalty incentives for the oil industry. The plan is to spend much of the money on alternative energy.
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), in her speech, talked about a “new America that declares our energy independence, promotes domestic sources of renewable energy, and combats climate change.”
• Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), in a legislative “marker” package, called on Congress to pass a bill to mandate reductions of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. He said Global Warming and energy legislation will get attention in the Senate early this year.
• A bi-partisan group of five senators, including Barak Obama (D-Ill.), introduced a bill calling for incentives for biofuels. The bill aims to put 60 billion gallons of ethanol and biodiesel in the fuel supply by 2030 and gives tax breaks for, among other things, development of cellulosic biofuels and production of flex-fuel cars. It also would prevent oil companies from blocking sale of biofuels at their gas stations. And it requires that all buses bought with federal money use clean technologies, and that the federal fleet have better fuel-efficiency.
• Sen. John Bingaman (D-N.M.) said Senate energy policy will be spread out over several bills. Bingaman, chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resource Committee, said a national energy strategy to curb reliance on imports must maintain domestic oil and gas production as well as increase auto efficiency and use of biofuels.
(Round-up sources: Environment & Energy Daily, Greenwire.)

News briefs

1. 2007 may be warmest year yet, British agency says
There is a 60% chance this year may turn out to be the world’s warmest, according to the United Kingdom’s Meteorologic Office. This is in part due to the El Nino that began last year and will continue through the winter, causing more flooding on the West Coast and extending the droughts in Australia. The average global temperature is expected to rise .54 degrees Celsius (1.2 Fahrenheit) above the average for 1961-90. (Source: Greenwire, Associated Press)

2. Huge ice shelf breaks off island 500 miles from North Pole
A 41-square-mile ice shelf broke off Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic and has formed a new ice island 30 miles away. This major ice shelf was one of six remaining in the area, dating back 3,000 years. “We are crossing climate thresholds,” said Warwick Vincent of Laval University, “and these may signal the onset of accelerated change ahead.” (Source: Associated Press)

3. China temperatures to rise, water shortages seen
China will have water shortages as temperatures rise, according to a Chinese government study that found global warming could inhibit the country’s development. The study predicted China’s average temperature could increase 6 degrees Celsius by 2100. Rain is expected to increase but rapid evaporation will take away the benefits. (Source: Greenwire)

4. German town will get its power from under ground
A geothermal generator will soon provide power and heat to the small town of Unterhaching, Germany. The 3.4 megawatt plant, which gets its power from 3,300 meters below ground, will be the first major geothermal power source in Germany. Another plant provides 200 kilowatts. With government incentives to lower the cost, two more plants are expected to go online this year for a total of 7 megawatts, and German officials expect the country to produce more than 200 megawatts by 2016. (Source: Greenwire)

Do something
If you haven’t gone out and bought condensed fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs, make it your New Year’s Resolution to do so. They are more expensive but use 75% less energy and last 10 times longer, so overall you’ll save money.