Two-thirds of world will find it hard to get water by 2025
For those of us who have endless access to clean tap water and bottled water from Fiji or France (eight glasses a day, the doctor says), it’s hard to even imagine what a severe water shortage would be like.

My friend from Australia told me her family had to share bath water because of scarcity there, and I remember times when we could only water the lawn on even days. But that’s nothing, compared with what much of the world tolerates now and what is in store for us, as population grows and the impact of Global Warming increases.

More than 1 billion people worldwide lack access to clean water now, according to Science magazine’s State of the Planet 2006-2007, and well over 2 million, mainly children, die of water-related diseases each year. In much of the world, water must be boiled before it can be used. Now rapid development, population growth and Global Warming are making the situation much worse. China is strangling in pollution, in both their air and water, with about 10% of the Yangtze River, water source for 35% of the population, in critical condition. Recognizing this is a huge problem, that country and many others are paying billions to private contractors to improve their water quality and accessibility.

Future shock
Two-thirds of the world population will have trouble getting water by 2025, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A change in rain patterns and the loss of glaciers and snowpack – combined with population growth – will significantly reduce water availability.

Here in the U.S., there will be a clash over control of rivers. The San Joaquin and Colorado rivers will struggle to meet needs by 2020. More than 40 percent of the water supply to southern California will be vulnerable, due to lost snowpack. The Southwest and some other regions will need new sources of water, and may look to the Great Lakes, with 20% of the world’s fresh surface water, questioning the diversion of that water to cities like Chicago. At the same time, the Great Lakes will shrink, and toxins will be more concentrated.

Meanwhile, rising seas will increase the salinity of fresh water, which could cause critical shortages in New York City and other coastal areas.

The rest of the world
Hundreds of millions of Africans and tens of millions in Latin America, who now have water, will be short of it in less than 20 years, IPCC says. In the Amazon region, tropical forests will turn into savannah. Those who depend on the dwindling Andean glaciers for drinking, hydroelectric power and irrigation also will be up a creek, so to speak. Poor countries like Bolivia and Peru have few other sources for water and power.

Southern, central and eastern Europe won’t be spared. And parts of Greece will turn to desert, which could cause a mass exodus from the Mediterranean, according to a study there. The average rainfall in Greece is down 30% since the mid-1970s. Spain also will suffer.

By 2080, more than a billion people in Asia could be short of water. And the Australian Outback could see temperatures rise as much as 6.7 degrees F, bringing less rain and more evaporation.

Serious problems now
The rivers of the American West are at lower-than-average levels this spring. The flow on the Rio Grande, which goes from southern Colorado through New Mexico and Texas, is 38% below normal. Lake Powell, one of the Colorado River’s most important storage facilities, is down 80 feet.

States like Arizona and California already fight over the Colorado River. Most years, the Colorado is dry by the time it reaches its delta at the Sea of Cortez, because 7 states and Mexico all draw from it.

In Florida this spring, water likely will be pumped from the Everglades into dry water wells if the severe drought continues. Otherwise salt-water intrusion could ruin the water supply for a decade. Normally, Lake Okeechobee is used for backup, but that is down to its lowest level ever.

Las Vegas, growing by 100,000 people a year, realizes Lake Mead will soon be unable to meet its needs. Nevada is part of a Colorado Basin study that is looking at such measures as building a desalinization plant in Mexico or bringing water from Alaska in ships.

And Australia is in the throes of an unprecedented drought that is costing an estimated 1% of GDP. It’s in such dire straits this spring that the government will cut off water to agriculture unless there are widespread heavy rains in the next couple of week, Prime Minister John Howard announced. Wine grape production is down 30% and the rice crop has collapsed.

The importance of conservation
We’ve been very wasteful of water. In many cities of the world, half the volume has been lost to leaks. In Mexico City, 40% of the water leaked out of the system until they fixed it in the 1990s.

In addition to plugging leaks, there’s a growing focus on matching water to users’ needs, and pricing it to drive down demand. Numerous countries, including China, are contracting out their water management to private companies, such as Veoila in France, which among other things raises the price to consumers.

New technologies
The amount of water used in toilets in the U.S. has dropped 75% since new efficiency standards were imposed. But water-based sanitation, which the industrialized world has become used to, is not essential. Home toilets contaminate huge amounts of potable water. If necessary, the world could treat human waste without water, says State of the Planet.

There also are changes in agriculture that hold promise. New irrigation technology and crop characteristics can produce more with less water. Changes include drip irrigation and micro-sprinklers, which are more efficient than flood irrigation. And the most efficient dairies now use just 1 liter of water per liter of milk, where they required 3-6 liters in 1997.

We can look to dry countries like Australia, which has just started up a desalinization plant that turns out 30 million liters of fresh water a day. Several more such plants are likely.

Conservation, new technology and pricing are all part of the solution to saving water. But adaptation is only part of the answer. We also need to stop Global Warming in its tracks by drastically cutting and then reversing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

(Sources: Science magazine’s State of the Planet 2006-2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change April report, Greenwire, PlanetArk, Land Letter, New York Times, Vanity Fair’s Green Issue, Environmental Defense and Friends of the Earth.)


News briefs

1. Military panel warns of prolonged terrorism, more Darfurs
Global Warming will foster instability and more situations like Darfur, a panel of 11 retired generals reported last week. There will be natural and human disasters far beyond what we see today, said one of them, Gen. Anthony Zinni. Marginal living standards in the Middle East, Asia and Africa will become worse, the report said, aggravating the conditions that lead to terrorism. And there likely will be multiple problems simultaneously at different points on the globe, as governments fail and refugee numbers mount. The U.S. will have to pay now for GHG mitigation now or pay later in military and human terms, the panel said. They pointed to the Darfur calamity, where 300,000 lives have been lost, as partly caused by climate change. Rainfall has dropped 40% in the last quarter-century and populations are fighting over the same land. The panel urged a more aggressive U.S. response to stopping Global Warming. (Sources: Financial Times, Ottowa Citizen)

2. Alaska warming will cause grief for pilots, fisheries
Pilots face new risks flying over Alaska, the National Weather Service environmental chief told a state legislative commission last week. And fish are being forced further north by warming temperatures, a National Marine Fisheries rep said. The danger to airplanes is that clouds are increasingly full of cold water, not ice crystals, which could freeze on a plane and cause failure. The fisheries, which supply half the seafood in the U.S., are seeing cod, flounder and pollock forced northward and crab habitats reduced. Other testimony said floods and melting permafrost will cause billions of dollars of damage to roads and bridges over the next three decades. Alaska is warming faster than the rest of the country. (Source: Greenwire)

3. Salamanders and frogs may be ‘canaries in the coal mine’
A precipitous drop in reptile and amphibian populations in a Costa Rica preserve is most likely caused by climate change, researchers concluded. Habitat loss and fungus disease, the cause of many such population collapses, were ruled out here. The number of frogs, toads, snakes, salamanders and geckos plummeted 75% in 35 years in La Selva refuge, during a time when rainfall doubled and the temperature rose 1 degree Celsius. Researchers, led by Maureen Donelly of Florida International University, think the problem is the loss of leaf litter on the forest floor, needed for shelter and to provide bugs for food. Amphibians are considered sentinels of climate change. (Source: The Guardian UK)

4. New Hampshire towns make climate change part of primary
Three quarters of the towns in New Hampshire have agreed to go on record letting presidential candidates know they need to address Global Warming in the 2008 campaign, according to the Carbon Coalition, which coordinated the effort. New Hampshire holds the first presidential primary. The towns will include an article in their Town Meeting warrant requiring a reduction in greenhouses gases while protecting the economy, and seeking a national research initiative to develop renewable energy and create jobs. The state’s ski industry has been hurt by warming winters. (Sources: Greenwire and Portsmouth Herald’s Seacoastonline.)

5. Gore can use solar panels, as long as they’re out of sight
Al Gore can now install solar panels on his roof, after swish Belle Meade, Tenn., amended its zoning laws at his request. But the 33 panels must be out of view of neighbors. The former veep is also upgrading his furnace, windows and lights switches to be more efficient and putting new floor radiant heat and solar vents in his 70-year-old home, a spokesman said. He had been criticized for the size of his electric bill. (Sources: E&E News PM and MSNBC)

Congressional round-up

* Dem Senate strategy: 'bold' action, but not yet
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said after meeting with five key senators last week that they were committed to a “bold and progressive” climate change program by the end of the 110th Congress. For now, a series of bills will be put to a vote in coming months. Environment Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) explained they want some quick action and, in the end, broad action. Others in the meeting were Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), and Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Don’t hold your breath for a mandatory cap on emissions anytime soon. (Source: E&E News PM)

* House told how to be carbon neutral by end of this Congress
The House of Representative should become carbon neutral by the end of the 110th Congress, a report requested by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) says. This can be accomplished by getting electricity from renewable sources, becoming more energy efficient, and buying offset credits, said Daniel Beard, House Chief Administrative Officer, in a preview for House leaders last week. The House emits 91,000 tons of greenhouse gases a year. Efficiency steps would include putting condensed fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) in 12,000 desk lamps, buying Energy Star products and installing an Ethanol-85 fuel pump. It is likely the House will have to buy credits to offset a third of its emissions or pay into a “green revolving fund,” Beard said. (Source: Greenwire)

*Bingaman-Domenici biofuels bill may see coal-to-liquid added
A new bill that calls for a five-fold increase in biofuels, to 36 billion gallons by 2022, does not include the coal-to-liquid, natural gas or other carbon-emitting gases that are part of a similar White House proposal. But co-sponsor Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) thinks the votes are there to add coal-to-liquid as an alternative fuel in committee, despite Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman’s (D-N.M.) concerns about GHG emissions. Energy Chair Bingaman also introduced a bill to cut gasoline use 45% by 2030, a Bush White House goal. (Sources: E&E News PM, Greenwire)

*Bingaman commission backs stricter cuts, moderate steps
The National Commission on Energy Policy, a group Senate Energy Chair Bingaman relies on to inform legislation, backs stabilizing emissions by 2030 and cutting them 15% (from current levels) by 2030. The group of experts from industry, labor, government, consumer groups and others also wants a “safety valve” cap on carbon credit prices. The panel acknowledged its plan does not reach the emission levels needed to maintain a stable climate going forward, but said, "Moving forward with initially moderate targets is more ecologically protective than continued delay in pursuit of more aggressive goals." Bingaman has echoed that sentiment, saying a stronger package does not have the votes now. (Source: E&E Daily)


Do something

Wean yourself off the bottle – water bottles, that is. It takes 1.5 million barrels of oil a year to make bottles for water, says the Earth Policy Institute. That’s enough to fuel 100,000 cars. And only 1 in 5 is recycled, according to the Chicago Sun-Times. Use refillables with tap water. And if on occasions you feel the need to buy bottled water, go for a domestic brand and save the energy spent on shipping. And always recycle.

Hot tickets now on sale: On 7/7/07 seven Live Earth concerts will be held around the world to call attention to Global Warming. Tickets for the U.S. concert, in Giants Stadium, are now available and going fast. If you want to be part of the historic scene, don’t delay. Go to www.LiveEarth.MSN.com Entertainers will include the Dave Mathews Band, Sheryl Crow, Bon Jovi, Melissa Etheridge, Smashing Pumpkins and Kanye West.