Ragweed, poison ivy, malaria love Global Warming
Hay fever suffers will be bombarded with pollen as temperatures and CO2 concentrations rise. Poison ivy will be much more virulent, too. Not to mention more deadly diseases that are migrating to places that have not seen them before.

A study at the University of Oklahoma found that when temperatures were artificially raised, ragweed pollen increased by 84%. A single ragweed plant now releases up to a billion pollen grains, according to the National Wildlife Federation, so that will put it close to 2 billion.

At Duke University, scientists pumped carbon dioxide into several areas of forest, raising CO2 levels to about 585 ppm, close to what is anticipated in 2050 if emissions continue unchanged. That is “a level never reached in all of human history,” Duke’s dean of Earth Sciences, William Schlesinger, told National Wildlife. Today we are at about 380 ppm and counting.

After 5 years, the Duke scientists found that poison ivy was growing at 2½ times its normal rate. It also contained a more powerful version of the chemical that causes the rash that affects 80% of the people who come in contact with it.

Risk of more deadly diseases
Higher temperatures also increase disease-bearing insects, like mosquitoes, and allow them to migrate toward the poles and to higher ground. It’s likely the tick population will increase as well, causing more Lyme disease and other tick-borne illnesses.

A World Health Organization report estimates that in the year 2000 about 154,000 deaths around the world could be attributed to disease outbreaks and other conditions caused by climate change, reports the Los Angeles Times. The temperature change of about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 150 years was enough to alter disease patterns across the globe, the paper said.

Malaria, dengue fever spreading
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns of significant loss of life from malaria, dengue fever and encephalitis, all mosquito-borne diseases that are on the move. The panel predicts as much as 65% of the world’s population will become at risk for malaria. Doctors at Harvard Medical School linked U.S. outbreaks of these diseases and hantavirus to climate change.

There were outbreaks of malaria in Houston each of the past two years and one at Disney World in 1997. Mosquitoes carrying the disease have been found as far north as New York, according the doctors, and mosquitoes carrying dengue fever, for which there is no vaccine, reached Chicago.

Extreme weather events caused by warming, such as heat waves, will cause more deaths worldwide. Droughts will increase malnutrition in poor countries, as well as force people to use unsafe water. And increased flooding will cause more illness, as fertilizer, sewage and water-borne diseases get in the drinking water.

Also, hot temperatures in summer will cause more low-level ozone to linger, causing respiratory and cardiac problems, as fewer cold fronts come by to clean the air.

Crops will be affected too
Warming also poses a threat to agriculture. Insects in the southern part of the U.S. are likely to spread north, says the Union of Concerned Scientists. The bean leaf beetle that attacks soybeans is already migrating. Another one likely to spread, according to National Wildlife, is the corn earworm, one of North America’s most destructive pests that attacks not only corn, but tomatoes, cabbage and other vegetables. Warmer weather could allow it to live year-round.

To combat these pests, farmers are likely to use more pesticides, further damaging the environment. Warmer temperatures and higher CO2 will cause crops to grow faster, but they won’t be as nutritious.

A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences forecasts an 80% drop in U.S. wine production because of an increase in very hot days.

And as the interior of the continent becomes drier, the Midwest likely will be less suitable for corn and wheat, while Canada probably will grow more, according to National Wildlife.

Over the next 50 years, warming is expected to make much of the U.S. too hot to grow wheat, according to the Sierra Club, and that crop will likely shift to Canada and Alaska.

And U.S. corn production could drop by as much as 42%, says the EPA, at a time when there will be more pressure on corn for ethanol.

(Thanks to the Sierra Club for the information about IPCC and the Harvard Medical study.)

Congressional round-up

• House Democrats are re-introducing a bill that calls for a “Manhattan Project” for high-efficiency vehicles, building on existing federal research of hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies. The sponsors, including Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), want to revive a Clinton-era partnership with the auto industry to produce a prototype that gets 80 mpg. The bill also would establish a national biofuel infrastructure, increase transit funding, and make government take the lead in using alternative fuels.

• Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) told the Senate Finance Committee that Congress should establish a national cap-and-trade program to replace a patchwork of regional agreements like the new one among Western state governors, something Finance Chair Max Baucus (D-Mont.) has called for. Schweitzer also said the future viability of coal rests with successful carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Representing a coal state, he asked for $10 billion for CCS research. Princeton Prof. Robert Socolow, well known in Global Warming circles, agreed and asked that coal-to-liquid fuel not be allowed unless capture and sequestration is required.

• Bills were introduced in both houses requiring an inventory of potential spots to store carbon deep underground. They ask the U.S. Geological Survey, DOE and EPA to calculate storage capacity in all 50 states, as well as where hard-to-reach oil and gas could be recovered by carbon injections, a technique used since the 1970s. The first large-scale sequestration project began in 1996 in the North Sea and now pumps a million tons a year deep under the ocean. IPCC estimates there is between 200 and 2,000 gigabites of storage capacity worldwide.
(Sources: Greenwire, Environment & Energy Daily and E&E PM)

News briefs

1. TXU sale would reduce number of new coal-fired plants
Shortly after a Texas judge blocked fast-track approval for 11 new TXU coal-fired power plants, a takeover plan specified that 8 of the plants would be cancelled and that under new ownership TXU would reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The company also would support a $400 million energy-efficiency program and endorse the U.S. Climate Action Partnership’s call for mandatory caps on CO2 emissions. The TXU plan to build 11 coal-fired plants had sparked an enormous protest by environmental groups, citizens and some local governments and led to a drop in the stock price. Private equity firms Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Texas Pacific Group, with help from Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros., Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, offered $45 billion, in the biggest private equity deal in history. With several key players concerned about climate change, they brought in Environmental Defense and the Natural Resources Defense Council to help craft and environmental plan to satisfy the opposition. The deal isn’t complete yet, as TXU can solicit alternate bids till April 16 and Credit Suisse has offered to fund $40.2 billion of a competing bid. (Sources: Environmental Defense, New York Times)

2. Global Warming already causing ‘significant harm'
"Significant harm from climate change is already occurring, and further damages are a certainty," says a new report from the UN Foundation and Sigma XI Scientific Research Society. The report says “unmanageable” climate change will occur unless the global average temperature is kept to 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius above 1750 levels and CO2 in the atmosphere is limited to 450 and 500 parts per million. Global CO2 emissions would need to peak near current levels by 2020, and then fall by a third by 2100. Even with immediate, aggressive efforts, the world is likely to see more severe droughts and storms, a rise in sea level, and shifts in the range of plants and animals, the report predicts. Recommended steps to include:
• Quadrupling public and private spending on energy research,
• Improving energy efficiency for cars and buildings,
• Expanding the use of biofuels and public transportation,
• Promoting reforestation, and
• Requiring any new coal-fired power plants to be constructed so they can be retrofitted for carbon capture and sequestration.
The report also urges governments to plan for "environmental refugees" and to limit development on floodplains and coastal land. Check out what's forecast for your area on an interactive weather map for the year 2100 at www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2007-02-27-scientists-un_x.htm (Sources: Greenwire, USA Today)

3. Climate change could drop Great Lakes as much as 5 feet
Global Warming could lower water levels in the Great Lakes by 5 feet in the next 100 years, according to a draft of the IPCC report due out in April. Lakes Michigan and Huron would be most affected, according to scientists from NOAA. The problem would come from a lack of winter ice, leading to more evaporation. Warming could adversely affect salmon and trout, which are cold-water fish. (Source: Greenwire)

4. Europeans more concerned than us about Global Warming
People in Europe worry more about climate change than Americans, according to a poll by France 24 TV. While 54% of French and 40% of British, Germans and Italians said Global Warming is one of the top two global concerns that affects them, only 30% of Americans did. Western European countries have similar weather patterns, and a 2003 heat wave killed thousands in six countries, said Nick Pidgeon of the University of Cardiff, while the U.S. never has uniform temperatures. Also, the U.S. East Coast, where decisions are made, didn’t warm as much as the rest of the world in the 20th Century, said Penn State climatologist Michael Mann. (Source: Greenwire)

5. Madrid temperatures could top 120 degrees by century’s end
Summer heat in Madrid, Spain, could hit 50 degrees Celsius (122 F) by the year 2100, according to a new report. Rainfall could drop in some southern parts of the country by 40%. Spain will be among those hardest hit by Global Warming, its Environment Ministry’s report said. Steps to be taken to curtail GHG emissions should include discouraging city driving, increasing taxes on high-emission vehicles and providing better public transportation, the report said. Farmers should be discouraged from using nitrogen-based fertilizers, which produce nitrous oxide (a GHG), and homes should phase out coal-fired boilers. Commercial buildings need better efficiency standards, the report said. (Source: Reuters PlanetArk)

6. $2 billion a year till 2030 could cut emissions to 1990 levels
It will cost the U.S. utility sector about $2 billion a year for 20 years to cut GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2030, according to a report by the Electric Power Research Institute. The study said the reductions would take about 20 years, regardless of how much is spent. Prices could be passed on the customers, it said. David Hawkins, of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the changes would not come soon enough. The report calls for 50 new nuclear power reactors by 2030, as well as more wind and solar. Spending $2B annually would advance clean technology to the point where it becomes competitive, and would draw in private investment, said EPRI chair Jeff Sterba. Electric power companies emit about one-third of the world’s GHG. Older coal-fired plants run at about 33% efficiency. The study sets a goal of 49% efficiency. (Source: NY Times, Greenwire)

Do something

The League of Conservation Voters is working to influence candidates for president in 2008 about Global Warming. LCV’s Heat Is On campaign is asking for monthly donations to sustain their efforts to put workers on the ground in key primary states like Iowa and Nevada, question candidates at public meetings, and assure that climate change is a key issue in this campaign. If you can’t be there yourself, support those who can, by setting up a donation at www.secure.ga4.org/01/heatison_donate_sustainer/ncp_mhpSyrGeP

You also can help influence Congress by sending a message with Al Gore, the pre-eminent leader on the Global Warming issue, when he testifies before the Senate and House later this month. Go to www.algore.com/cards.html and send a message to your elected representatives.