How to talk about global warming when it's freezing and snowing outside

(Photo of January snowstorm from Flickr and Wobblymol/Loraine Davis)

The snow is piling up, the cold is harsh. So what does that say about global warming? The deniers say it means the Earth is cooling, not warming. Some of your family and friends may be having serious doubts, too, about whether the planet is really heating up. It’s hard to believe when it’s so darn cold outside.

Well, it is heating up. You can tell people that with confidence. We just finished the warmest decade on record. Arctic summer ice has melted at a record pace. Last year was among the 5 warmest years ever recorded.

We don’t always feel that warmth. It varies from place to place and much of the change is in the oceans.

We’re talking long-term, widespread trends here, not specific weeks or months or specific regions. Even more important – what people find hard to grasp – we’re talking miniscule changes. Fractions of degrees that add up.

Climate scientists are saying if the average world temperature rises more than 2 degrees Celsius (4.6 Fahrenheit) over what it was is pre-industrial times, we are in for cataclysmic climate change.

Some folks wouldn’t even be convinced of global warming if this year was 4.6 F above last year. They are looking for changes they can feel – and feel quickly – like a 10-degree difference for a whole season. If the summer averaged 90 instead of 80, they might believe.

It doesn’t work that way. It happens slowly and insidiously. We need to look, as scientists do, at the slow, long-term changes that are, for example, causing early spring run-off of mountain ice followed by drought; lack of freezing temperatures to kill off pine beetle infestations; and wildfires exploding because the dry season is longer.

Climate isn’t the same thing as weather. Weather can vary widely, and right now it is particularly cold in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, due in large part to something scientists call Arctic Oscillation. That – to put it very simply -- is when pressure pushes cold weather further south than usual. AO is extreme right now. Britain and much of Western Europe are feeling the brunt of it, as are China and Korea. At the same time, though, the west coast of Greenland is having warm rain and parts of Africa are unusually hot. Alaska and northern Canada are warmer than usual, too.

So, what the weather’s like in Montana or Buffalo in a given month doesn’t tell us what’s happening the world over. In fact a Nobel-prize-winning scientist at the University of Montana predicted this week that his state and others in the Rockies are looking at more short winters, more beetle infestations and more wildfires. Steve Running says that while Montana used to have 10-12 sub-zero days a year, now has just 3-4.

That’s what it’s about. A matter of degree. Not weather you can see and feel changing year to year. But trends that recorded data reveal. That’s why we need scientists. And why we need to look at the results of the cumulative changes.

Winter will still be with us, and it may seem just as severe. But it isn’t, and you’d better believe it.

(Sources: Dot Earth, Climate Progress , The Guardian, AP, Missoulian.

Excessive snow this winter will lead to more flooding in Midwest and Northeast -- NOAA

(Photo of recent flooding in St. Louis from Flickr and Dave Thompson)

Xtreme Weather: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting more of the deadly flooding we’ve seen in recent weeks in the Midwest. This winter has seen an unusual amount of snow, and as that snow melts, flooding is likely in the Mississippi, Ohio and Missouri river basins. Some relief will come to the parched Southeast. Atlanta’s reservoir, Lake Lanier, now 12-14 feet below normal, will be replenished this summer, as will Lake Okeechobee in Florida, the National Weather Service said. The long-term drought in the Southwest won’t be affected, however. (ClimateWire)

A week of news on ethanol and hunger

(Photo of cornfield from Flickr and photographer vampire_bear)

Weekly Angst: Not long ago some touted ethanol as an answer to fossil fuels. The Bush administration said it could save us from our “dependence on foreign oil.” In the U.S., for now, ethanol means corn – that’s what’s being produced and it’s popular in farm states like Iowa and Illinois. But scientists have pointed out life-cycle carbon emissions from corn ethanol are about as bad as from gasoline – and its potential supply is limited. Even Bush recognizes we need to move quickly to non-food, cellulosic products and the new Energy Bill calls for that to happen. But, recently an even greater concern has arisen. Corn prices have skyrocketed, farmers are switching from other crops, like wheat and soybeans, and now they are soaring in price too. Hunger on the rise as food costs grow and supply can’t meet demand. A series of news items over the past week tell us where we are right now with this dilemma.

News item: Midwest drought could spike food, gas prices
Increased dependence on corn and other grains for feed, food and fuel leaves the country vulnerable to a weather catastrophe that could cut supply and push prices up even more. The price of corn is already up 20% this year. Corn could reach $8/bushel (from $5.40 now) if a drought or heat wave hits the Midwest, experts say. A problem could occur as early as this summer, as global warming and La Niña increase the likelihood of drought. (LA Times, 3/2)

News item: Tough times for ethanol force shakeout
High corn prices are squeezing profits at small ethanol distillers. Production capacity nearly doubled in the past year to 8 billion gallons a year, but the high price of corn, and of natural gas to run the distilleries, is leading to consolidation and some bankruptcies. There are also problems getting the product to customers. While farmers benefit, profits for ethanol companies hit a low in November, surged briefly when Congress passed the Energy Bill, and now are dropping again. (Reuters PlanetArk 3/3)

News item: UN warns of ‘new hunger’ as food prices surge
A perfect storm of high food and oil prices, low food supplies, climate change, demand from China and India, and diverting crops to biofuel are causing a food crisis, the executive director of the UN World Food Programme said. The “newly hungry” have money but will be priced out of the food market, adding to the 25,000 worldwide who die each day from hunger now. Record food prices are likely to continue for several years and will cause social unrest and anarchy in the streets, she warned. Afghanistan is one of the most vulnerable nations. One solution is to use more land for food, less for biofuel, she said. (PlanetArk, 3/3)

News item: U.S. won’t meet its ethanol mandate, EIA says
It’s unlikely we’ll meet the Energy Bill ethanol mandate of 36 billion gallons/year by 2022 because of the lack of “advanced” cellulosic ethanol, the Energy Information Administration told a Senate committee. Instead EIA foresees 32.5 billions gallons/year. Most U.S. ethanol is now made from corn, with only small production from switchgrass, wood chips and other agricultural and forest waste, boding ill for the future. The projection assumes the end of tariffs on ethanol imports and significant supply coming from abroad. (PlanetArk, 3/5)

News item: California company begins cellulosic refinery
Ethanol company BlueFire will soon build a cellulosic refinery next to a landfill in Lancaster, Calif., to make ethanol from grass clippings, tree trimmings, and other biomass. The goal is to produce 3.5 million gallons by the end of the year, and eventually 17 million gallons a year. By 2011, the company hopes to be building 5 refineries a year, with a capacity of 55 million gallons each. The federal government is providing up to $385 million to BlueFire and 5 other companies for capital costs to build cellulosic refineries. (Greenwire, 3/3)

1-minute Angst: high-speed trains

Summary for Feb. 25-29

Could high-speed trains work in the U.S. or is it too big? Railroad man Craig Burroughs says at 250 mph we could get from Chicago to LA in less than 10 hours. High-speed freight trains would take lots of heavy trucks off the roads, making highway expansion unnecessary and dramatically reducing expensive maintenance of truck-damaged roads.

House OKs renewable-energy tax credits, again, but Senate could balk at money coming from Big Oil. And White House threatens to veto. One hope: add it to budget reconciliation bill … McCain gets zero from League of Conservation Voters for 2007 non-votes.

Freight trains compete with trucks to carry Asian imports from ports, getting more investment … efficiency best way to cut energy demand, study says … nuke developers go to South despite excess capacity there.

Water supply for Southern California, in Lake Mead, could be gone by 2021, because of drought and reduced snowpack … Chile suffers worst drought in decades, while ocean water must be pumped to Andes.

For full text, see below.

Global Warming erasing Lake Mead

(Photo of receding Lake Mead from Flickr and Roadsidepictures.)

Xtreme Weather Watch: Lake Mead, the man-made lake behind the Hoover Dam that supplies much of the water for Southern California, could totally dry up in the next 13 years, according to a researcher at the University of California at San Diego. That would affect some 30 million people in the region. For the past two decades there were signs of an impending problem, with less snow pack and lower levels in lakes and rivers as a result of climate change and overuse. After a 10-year drought the problem today is urgent, with a net deficit of 1 million acre feet of water a year. Researcher Tim Barnett says it is too late to prevent a crisis, so adaptation is the only answer here. Desalination plants on the coast and water conservation are the most likely solutions. Agriculture uses 75-80% of the water and is the No. 1 industry in California. (Newsweek)

Ocean water pumped up to Andes mines as rivers dry up
Mines high in the Andes of Peru and Chile are pumping water from the ocean because rivers are running dry. Chronic water shortages have become worse due to global warming and the melting of glaciers. The ocean water is desalinated and pumped 6,000-7,500 feet up, to furnish the metal mines and refineries on which the two countries’ economies depend. (PlanetArk)

Chile has worst drought in decades; officials give out water
In what some say is the worst drought in 80 years, wells are running dry in the south- central part of Chile, affecting 120,000 people, ruining crops and killing livestock. To avert disaster, the government has installed tanks and sends trucks once a week to fill them with water. Neighboring Bolivia, meanwhile, is inundated with rain. (PlanetArk)

Next president's views on climate change

Weekly angst: Global Warming is not the hot topic it should be at campaign appearances and televised debates (blame the moderators for that). But many of the candidates have clearly stated their positions. Let’s look at the key issues and see where the 4 most viable candidates in each party stand.

CAP-AND-TRADE:
Hillary Clinton: 80% cut by 2050 (from 1990 level), with allowances sold at auction
Barak Obama: 80% cut by 2050 (from 1990 level), with allowances sold at auction
John Edwards: 80% cut by 2050 (from 1990 level), with allowances sold at auction
Bill Richardson: 90% cut by 2050 (from 2006 level), with allowances sold at auction
John McCain: supports mandatory cap-and-trade, was lead author of a bill asking 65% by 2050, no comment on auction vs. free credits.
Mike Huckabee: supports mandatory cap-and-trade (no specifics), no comment on auction vs. free
Rudy Giuliani: opposes mandatory cap-and-trade
Mitt Romney: would consider only if global

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY STANDARD (RES):
Clinton: 25% by 2025
Obama: 25% by 2025
Edwards: 25% by 2025
Richardson: 30% by 2020, 50% by 2040
McCain: opposed 10% RES in 2005, opposed cloture on 2007 bill
Huckabee: 15% by 2020, but include nuclear power and clean coal
Giuliani: opposes
Romney: no position

FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD
Clinton: 40 mpg 2020, 55 mpg 2030
Obama: 56 mpg 2026
Edwards: 40 mpg 2016
Richardson: 50 mpg 2020
McCain: supports, but no specifics
Huckabee: 35 mpg 2020
Giuliani: opposes standards
Romney: opposes as stand-alone

NEW COAL PLANTS
Clinton: phased-in requirement that new plants capture carbon
Obama: would consider moratorium if mandatory cap doesn’t slow construction
Edwards: moratorium for plants that don’t capture and store carbon
Richardson: New plants can't emit more carbon than advanced natural gas plants
McCain: supports use of conventional coal
Huckabee: supports conventional coal
Giuliani: supports conventional coal
Romney: supports conventional coal

LIQUID COAL
Clinton: supports if can cut carbon pollution 20% below gasoline
Obama: supports if carbon pollution 20% below gasoline
Edwards: opposes investment
Richardson: opposes investment
McCain: no position
Huckabee: supports
Giuliani: supports
Romney: supports

NUCLEAR ENERGY
Clinton: focus on renewables, but don’t rule out
Obama: focus on renewables, might pursue if waste and safety problems resolved
Edwards: no more nuclear plants
Richardson: should be part of the mix
McCain: should be part of mix
Huckabee: safety concerns mostly unfounded
Giuliani: convinced, based on consulting, that plants can be secure
Romney: develop more aggressively, re-process spent fuel like French

ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Clinton: Reduce 20% from projected levels by 2020
Obama: Reduce intensity 50% by 2030
Edwards: Reduce electricity consumption 15% by 2018
Richardson: 20% increase in productivity by 2020
McCain: supports – no target
Huckabee: supports – no target
Giuliani: opposes mandatory standards
Romney: supports – no target

Global Warming and specific solutions need to be a greater part of the campaign. It’s up to us to ask questions of the candidates to let them know how important this is to us as voters – and to ask for a change of position when we think a candidate’s stance is too soft. For more on the candidates’ views, go to http://www.lcv.org/voterguide.
(Sources: League of Conservation Voters, candidates’ Web sites, New York Times, Los Angeles Times)

Taking stock of where we are

2007 year of acknowledging Global Warming: top stories

* The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change releases 4 reports that clearly establish there IS Global Warming and it’s already doing damage.
* Arctic summer ice is less than half what it was in 2006, Greenland loses 19 billion tons more than its previous record and West Antarctica shows large-scale melt, leading top NASA scientist James Hansen to predict we may have passed a “tipping point.”
* Extreme weather hits many parts of the world, including the U.S. where record droughts cause water shortages in the West and Southeast. Wildfires ravage California, and floods swamp Texas, as well as Britain and much of Asia. Australia has the drought of the century and parts of Europe suffer a searing heat wave. In August, 100 all-time heat records are broken around the world. 2007 is the warmest year ever in the Northern Hemisphere.
* China becomes the 800-pound gorilla, likely passing up the U.S. at top emitter of greenhouse gases and building 1-2 new coal plants a week. Demand for oil helps raise prices to near $100 a barrel.
* New Australian prime minister signs the Kyoto Protocol, leaving the U.S. the only industrialized country not to commit to reducing GHG by 2012.
* The U.S. Supreme Court rules that GHG are pollutants under the Clean Air Act and can be regulated by the EPA. But the EPA denies California a waiver to regulate tailpipe emissions, effectively blocking 16 other states.
* The Bush Administration prevents the international conference in Bali from setting specific goals for worldwide carbon cuts.
* Congress passes corporate average fuel ecomony (CAFE) standards of 35 mpg by 2020 and a 5-fold increase in biofuels by 2022, but fails to get enough Senate votes for renewable electricity standards (RES) and tax credit shifts from oil to renewables.
* Cities and states take matters into their own hands, as New York City announces a bold climate plan to reduce GHG 30% by 2030, including a proposal for fees on cars driving into traffic-strangled Manhattan. Chicago awaits unveiling of its massive Climate Action Plan, which will focus heavily on retrofitting buildings to conserve energy. Various states set their own goals, join regional cap-and-trade agreements, and pass RES laws. The Northeast and West lead.
* A worldwide explosion in demand for corn ethanol and other biofuels leads to more deforestation and rising food prices.
* The Energy Independence Act of 2007, a bi-partisan bill by Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.) passes out of committee, a milestone because it advocates specific GHG cuts and a cap-and-trade system.
* The Nobel Peace Prize rewards IPCC and Al Gore for their work on Global Warming.

2008 watch: What the U.S. needs to do now to make a difference

*Elect a president who not only cares about Global Warming but will take strong action and lead – both the country and the world.
*Elect a Congress that will act on Global Warming on behalf of the people and planet – not on behalf of Big Oil, Big Coal and other fossil fuel interests. We need 60 votes in the Senate.
*Extend incentives for alternative energy sources, like wind and solar, so they will grow far beyond the puny 2 or 3% of our power they are now. Commit to research on innovative sources of clean energy. Pass an RES bill to force electric power companies to begin using renewable resources.
*Test carbon capture and get it into commercial production as soon as possible. So far, it’s the best way to have “clean coal” and coal is likely to be with us awhile. Stop building new coal plants until they can be clean.
*Work with the rest of the world to quickly set targets for cutting greenhouse gases after 2012, transfer clean-energy technology to developing countries to stop the fossil-fueled boom, stop deforestation, and be much less wasteful.
*Force the EPA to protect, not prostitute, the environment.

News in brief

States sue EPA for denying their right to cut tailpipe emissions
16 states sued the EPA Jan. 2 for refusing California a waiver to restrict CO2 emissions from cars and trucks. The action affected other states as well, because under the Clean Air Act they can adopt either federal or California pollution standards, and many had passed and were waiting to enforce the California tailpipe rules. The EPA’s rationale was that the new federal Energy Bill, mandating 35 mpg fuel economy by 2020, trumps any state tailpipe laws. The California restrictions are stricter than those in the Energy Bill. EPA staff reportedly said California would likely win a lawsuit to reverse the EPA administrator’s decision, but that an auto industry suit would have lost if EPA had granted the waiver. California Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown called the decision “shocking in its incoherence and utter failure to provide legal justification.” Joining California in the suit were Ariz., Conn., Del., Ill., Mass., Maine, Md., N.J., N.M., N.Y., Ore., Pa., R.I., Vt. and Wash. The timing of the decision (Dec. 19), right after President Bush signed the Energy Bill, raised suspicion a deal was cut with the auto companies to give them the lesser of two evils. (PlanetArk, Los Angeles Times)

Huge Global Warming teach-in will focus nation on climate
After nearly two years of preparation, Focus the Nation will sponsor a nationwide teach-in at more than 1,000 colleges, high schools and other institutions Jan. 31, to get young people more involved in solving the climate change problem. More than 10,000 volunteers will participate in what the group calls “the biggest teach-in in history.” They’re still looking for teachers, principals and students to take part. Lesson plans are available at http://wwwclimaechangeeducation.org. To get involved or learn more, go to http://www.focusthenation.org. (Source: Focus the Nation)

Low-emission locomotives introduced last month in Texas
Union Pacific put 98 low-emission locomotives into service in December with a $75 million grant from the state of Texas. Multiple diesel engines are turned on and off depending on the load, with an estimated 30% saving in fuel, according to the railroad. Also, nitrogen oxide (a GHG) and particulate matter would be reduced as much as 63%. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

2008 will be slightly cooler than last year but still in the top 10 warmest years since 1850, British researchers forecast last week. The cooling off is due in large part to a very strong La Niña, England’s Met Office and experts from the University of East Anglia said. A warming trend remains and once La Niña subsides, temperatures should sharply increase, they said. (PlanetArk)

A ferocious Arctic storm pounded California over the weekend, with another storm expected Tuesday. Heavy rain and hurricane-force winds caused power to go out for 1.3 million people in Northern California, as well as some in Oregon and Washington. Thousands in Southern California were told to evacuate canyons where mudslides could be a problem after last year’s fires. The Sierra Nevada mountains were expected to get up to 10 feet of show. Winds gusted up to 70 mph on the Golden Gate bridge and a levee broke in Nevada flooding hundreds of homes. (Associated Press, SFGate, LA Times)

China is suffering its worst drought in a decade, leaving millions short of drinking water and destroying crops. Authorities had to release water from the huge 3 Gorges Dam to help cargo ships stranded in the Yangtze. Worst hit is the usually humid south. China is often plagued by floods and droughts, but meteorologists blame global climate change for increasingly extreme weather. (PlanetArk)

Erratic rain has damaged Brazil's coffee crop. Premature rains, followed by an unusual dry period and then a delayed rainy season has cut the 2008-09 coffee crop 15%, the Costa Rican Coffee Institute said. If the drought had lasted a week longer, the damage would have been even greater, they said. (PlanetArk)

Postscript
Kudos to Rick Telander, sports columnist in the Chicago Sun-Times, who used his whole column Friday to write about Global Warming. He reached a new audience that isn’t usually paying attention. The sports tie-in was that it affects activities like fishing, hunting and skiing. But clearly he’s alarmed by what’s happening and wanted to help spread the word.