Senate split on follow-up to House climate bill

What now? The House narrowly (219-212) passed a cap-and-trade bill Friday that aims to curb greenhouse gas emissions 17% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. (If you want to see how your rep voted, go to www.clerk.house.gov/evs/2009/roll477.xml) The lobbying was intense, with the Obama administration, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), environmental groups and key sponsors twisting arms till the last minute to overcome the heavy spending of the old “dirty” energy industry and GOP. They squeaked through with one vote to spare.

Attention has now turned to the Senate. President Obama set aside a Health Care message and used his Saturday radio broadcast to push for Senate approval of a similar bill. Both sides are again gearing up for a fight.

Two bills or one?
House Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said he and six committee heads will craft a comprehensive bill for this fall.

Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) has jumped out front and already passed a bill out of committee, with bipartisan support, that would establish a Renewable Energy Standard (RES) of 15% by 2021, though a third of that percentage could be earned through energy efficiency. The heavily flawed compromise bill also would allow offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico within 45 miles of Florida (as opposed to the 100-235 mile buffer established in 2006).

Environmental groups oppose this bill in the current form, but note new numbers for a more stringent RES (25% by 2025) can be added on the floor with just 51 votes. Another problem is that it protects dirty Canadian oil sands from a 2007 law keeping the federal government from buying fuels with higher greenhouse gases than conventional fuels.(Yes, you read it right -- oil sands produce more GHG than traditional fuels. But, hey, Canada is our friend. Translation: they're not Arab.)

Meanwhile Environment Committee Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) is marking up a cap-and-trade bill modeled on the House bill, which she hopes to have out of her committee before the August recess.

Some say there should be two bills, giving the energy portion a better chance to pass if cap-and-trade can’t get the requisite 60 votes to avoid filibuster (Al Franken, we need you, and we need you now). However, Reid wants to bundle the package together. He also wants to add a provision that wasn’t in the House bill, for a national “smart grid.”

What do Republicans want?
The Republican Western Caucus released a bill last week, which emphasizes oil, gas and nukes. They gave it the warm and fuzzy name of “Clean, Affordable, Reliable Energy Act” or CARE. The goal is to increase domestic fuel production to reduce dependence on foreign oil, while keeping energy prices down. It calls for opening oil reserves on the outer continental shelf and ANWR in Alaska and removing environmental barriers to drilling. Their bill does include incentives for alternative energy sources and plug-in vehicles and investment in infrastructure, but it also wants to reduce barriers to nuclear development and oil shale exploration.

What do people think of all this?
Three-quarters of the public think the federal government should regulate greenhouse gases from power plants, factories and cars to reduce global warming, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. But some of those either don’t understand or don’t like the concept of cap-and-trade. A slim majority (52%) approves it, while 43% opposes. About 6 in 10 said they’d favor restrictions even if other countries did nothing, and the same number said they’d pay more, though that percentage varies depending on how much more.

Age was a big differentiator, as you might imagine. Two-thirds of those under 30 favor cap-and-trade, while only 40% of seniors do. Half of senior said there should be some federal regulation, though.

Cap-and-trade is not an easy concept to understand. Proponents need to do a better job of selling it to the public. It may not be the ideal solution, but a carbon tax is never going to fly politically.

We need to make sure the senators are listening to the public as well as to the entrenched interests. Otherwise they’ll be able to block this legislation or turn it to their advantage, and we’ll be back to square one on climate change.

(Sources: E&D Daily, E&E PM, Washington Post, AP, New York Times)

Late-breaking: Agreement on climate bill brings new votes

House Energy Chair Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) and Agriculture Chair Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) have reached agreement on rural concerns about the pending climate bill. After several days of negotiations, Peterson said Tuesday evening he would vote for the American Climate Energy and Security Act, likely bringing dozens of rural congressmen with him. This greatly improves chances for passage of the comprehensive cap-and-trade bill, possibly as early as Friday. (Source: E&ENewsPM)

Duke vs. Newt: frantic lobbying as House climate bill vote draws near

Duke Energy wants it, Newt Gingrich doesn't. With the House climate bill heading to the floor for debate Friday, lobbying is fast and furious.
In the past two days:
• A group of 22 environmental groups sent a letter to all House members urging them to vote for the bill – the American Energy and Climate Security Act (H.R.2454). Groups included the Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters. LCV said it would not endorse anyone who votes against it.
• 20 companies and electric utilities took out full-page ads in Washington papers calling for passage because they want the clarity of rules it would bring (and likely because most allowances for cap-and-trade will be given -- not sold -- to polluters at the start). Those signing on included Duke, NRG Energy and PSEG Inc.
• 20 climate scientists sent a letter to Congress saying that to avert a "rapidly developing global climate crisis” they should pass a strengthened version of the bill as a basis for stronger federal policies. Well-known NASA scientist James Hansen, who is convinced CO2 emissions must be cut back to 350 parts per million (from the current 385) rather than the early target of 450 ppm, did not sign.
• President Obama urged passage during his news conference Tuesday, saying it would spark a clean-energy transformation.
• The Cooler Heads Coalition, a new group of science skeptics and other legislative opponents began lobbying Congressmen.
• Newt Gingrich’s American Solutions for a Winning Future planned to run a TV ad, starting Wednesday, opposing the bill and saying it would hurt the economy.

Are the votes there to pass it?
On Tuesday there were 170 reliable votes and 108 on the fence, according to an analysis by E&E Daily. 218 votes are need to pass the bill. If the votes aren’t there, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said he may push it back until after the Fourth of July.

In years past the Senate took the lead on climate legislation, and the House has never passed a cap-and-trade bill. But this year the Senate is lagging behind, with a weak energy bill out of the Energy Committee and Barbara Boxer still crafting a cap-and-trade bill in her Environment Committee. So even if the House manages to pass this bill, Senate agreement is not by any means secure.

A few other points
* The EPA said Tuesday the bill would cost the average household between $80 and $111 a year. Congressional Budget Office figures released Friday said an average of $175 a year, with a range of $40 to $245 depending on income level.

* The bill has been changed somewhat in recent days to accommodate the eight committees with some jurisdiction. A concern of Agriculture Chair Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) has apparently been met by giving rural electric cooperatives one-half a percent of the free allowances. But agriculture is still concerned about who will oversee farm offsets, the Agriculture Department or the EPA. And moderate Democratic representatives from farm states are needed on this vote.

* States would now be permitted to spend 10% of their allotment (which in turn is 10% of free allowances) on public transportation.

* Because of the powerful farm interests, methane emissions from cows have been exempted from the bill. They called it a “cow tax.” Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and cows produce about 25% of the emissions so that’s a significant exemption.
(Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM)

Waxman-Markey climate bill may be foiled next week by Dem agriculture chair's voting bloc

(I’m back, after a 7-month hiatus during my husband’s illness and death. I’m back earlier than I planned because next week could be critical for the fight against climate change.)

Rural agriculture interests threaten to kill hopes of passing a comprehensive global warming bill in the House next week – and maybe even this year. The Democratic chair of the Ag Committee, Collin Peterson (Minn.), is jawboning with bill sponsor Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), who hopes to resolve differences to win over a necessary block of votes.

In case you missed it, with the media focused on health care, Congress is working on a cap-and-trade climate bill that could go to the House floor as early as Monday – if they have the votes to pass it.

The American Clean Energy and Security Act, or ACES (H.R.2454), spearheaded by House Energy Chair Waxman and Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), passed out of committee May 21. (Note that Waxman is now chairman of the committee Rep. John Dingell (D-Autos) used to lead, or this wouldn’t be happening.)

What’s in the bill
ACES sets a goal to reduce greenhouse gases 80% by 2050, a percentage scientists agreed is needed to avoid massive climate change and calamity. The problem, of course, is these reductions are based on 2005 greenhouse gas levels, not 1990 as the Kyoto agreement was, and during that time we accumulated a nice little built-in increase of CO2 in the atmosphere we won’t get rid of for 100 years. We’ve lost more than a decade since it became really clear we need to make huge reductions to avoid the powerful storms, water shortages, coastal inundation and other catastrophes higher temperatures are bringing.

H.R. 2454 key provisions:
* Set up a cap-and-trade system, with an increasingly lower cap on emissions and allowances to be traded as needed to meet those goals.
* Reduce carbon emissions from major sources 17% by 2020.
* Auction 15% of allowances at the start. The rest will be given away to electrical utilities and other industries impacted by the bill.
* Require that electric utilities meet 20% of their demand with renewable sources and efficiency by 2020.
*Invest in renewable sources, energy efficiency, carbon capture and sequestration, and electric and other advanced vehicles.
* Improve energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances.
* Fund efforts to reduce international deforestation.

Uncertainty about next week
Waxman and Markey and the Democratic leadership won’t go to the floor for debate unless it looks like they have the 218 votes needed to pass. After many voting blocks, such as coal, were wooed by giving them free allowances to start, the main holdup now is Agriculture Chair Peterson, who controls a 45-member bloc of votes. His main concern is that the formula for free allowances for electric utilities works against small rural cooperatives because it depends in part on sales. Others want to keep the carefully crafted formula as it is – half based on previous emissions and half on sales.

Green groups still pushing
Environmental organizations are still trying to strengthen the bill. They say 100% of allowances should be auctioned from the start. That’s what President Obama’s budget called for, but it seems giving away freebees is the only way, politically, to get this off the ground. Enviros want more emphasis on clean energy and efficiency, and a bigger emissions cut in the short term. As they lobby to strengthen the bill, they are far outspent by industry lobbyists. A study a few weeks ago showed a ratio of 16:1. That’s why your voice is needed.

What you can do
If you haven’t contacted your representative, now is the time to do it – this weekend. The bill could be filed as early as Monday, with debate Thursday and Friday, and a possible vote late Friday before the House breaks for the Fourth of July. Waxman wants a vote then because after the Fourth full attention will be on health care.

If we don’t get a climate bill by the end of the year, it may be another year or two (at least) before we do. And we’ll go empty-handed to the international meeting in Copenhagen in December, which gives us very little bargaining power with China and the rest of the world in coming up with a global treaty to replace Kyoto.

Call the Congressional switchboard at (212)224-3121 and ask for your rep by name. Tell his/her aide that you want this climate bill (H.R.2454) passed next week.
(Sources: American Clean Energy and Security Act, E&E Daily, E&E News PM, Sierra Club.)

Should GM have to rescue mass transit?

EarthlingAngst is on a short hiatus due to illness in the family. But we thought you'd appreciate the following thought-provoking article from CommonDreams.org -- GM Should Have to Remake the Mass Transit System it Murdered.

Sydney Harbor faces major sea level rise by 2050

(Photo of Sydney Opera House from Flickr and photographer Michael McDonough)

News Update: The iconic Opera House on Sydney Harbor will be endangered by rising sea levels as early as 2050, not to mention the homes, beaches, hotels and roads that surround the harbor. I’ve been to this beautiful spot and can only imagine what a tragedy that would be for Sydney’s people, economy and way of life. A new Australian study predicts a 2-degree C temperature increase and sea-level rise of 40 centimeters (15.74 inches) by mid-century. Each centimeter results in erosion of about one meter (3 feet-plus). The study, commissioned by New South Wales Premier Nathan Rees and conducted by the University of New South Wales, also forecasts more brushfires and erratic rainfall leading to both water shortages and flooding. The study’s findings have profound implications for urban planning in the region, not just for Sydney but other coastal communities. Rees reiterated his strong support for Australia's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and energy efficiency. (Source: Sydney Morning Herald)

California voters OK bonds for high-speed rail, Missouri passes renewable electricity standard

(Photo of ballot marked yes for highspeed rail from Flickr and and photographer Brad Lauster)

News Update: A smattering of good news from around the nation:
• California authorized $20 billion in bonds to construct a 700-mile high-speed train line from San Diego to San Francisco. Not surprisingly, the coastal communities wanted it, because they’ll benefit, but the inland voters did not. The project will need additional federal and private funding for completion, not an easy ask in these tough economic times.
• Two other California propositions, opposed by environmental groups, were voted down: The T. Boone Pickens-backed proposal that encouraged natural gas use for autos and a poorly written plan for 50% RES by 2025. (Bad news: San Francisco’s effort to take over the local utility and shift to renewables also failed.)
• Missouri voters OK’d a 15% renewable electricity standard by 2021, the third state to vote for an RES after California and Washington (others have been approved by state legislatures).
• Voters in 11 coastal towns south of Boston gave 87% approval to the controversial Cape Wind project in Nantucket Sound. None of the towns are on Cape Cod, where opposition is strongest. The project has the state’s environmental OK and the state’s Siting Board begins hearings this week. Final hurdle will be the U.S. Interior Dept. A ruling there is expected this month.
• In Seattle, 3 urban counties around Puget Sound, approved $22.8 billion for bus and rail transit.
• Florida voted for a modest measure giving tax exemptions for rooftop solar installations.
• Colorado voters reduced tax credits on oil and gas, with money to be used for a number of purposes including renewable energy and efficiency. So the states inch
(Sources: ClimateWire, Greenwire)

Obama plans to reverse Bush and give California waiver for tailpipe emission limits

(Photo of President-elect Barack Obama from Flickr and and photographer jmtimages/Jack Thielepape)

News Update: A waiver to free California and many other states to set more stringent tailpipe emission standards is among many reversals of Bush executive actions President-elect Obama plans to take quickly upon entering office. Bush’s EPA denied the waiver, which would let California require a 30% cut in emissions from vehicles between 2009 and 2016, mandating fuel economy of at least 36 mpg by that time. 17 other states adopted that law but could not implement it because of the EPA ruling. Additional states, including Illinois, are trying to pass such a ‘clean car’ law. This is just one of about 200 executive measures Obama plans to reverse, ranging from stem cell research to international family planning. On the climate front, it is expected he will pay special attention to a brand new book, “Change for America,” by the Center for American Progress, headed by John Podesta, chair of Obama’s transition team. The book recommends that the new president quickly appoint a National Energy Council to coordinate all policy related to global warming. It would make sure all steps were coordinated and ensure attention for climate change inside the White House. Meanwhile, President Bush is planning some 11th-hour loosening of regulations on power plants near national parks, mountain-top removal coal mining in Appalachia and uranium mining near the Grand Canyon. (Sources: Washington Post, McClatchy Newspapers)

Waxman-Dingell power struggle in House could set direction for global warming bill

(Photo of Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) from Flickr, Public Citizen and photographer Bridgette Blair)

Weekly Angst: If the House can’t pass a good climate change bill with its current leadership, then the thinking is a coup may be in order. Thus liberal Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) has launched an effort to usurp the chairmanship held by conservative auto-industry ally Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.). Dingell is head of Energy Committee, responsible for bringing global warming legislation to the floor, but has been moving very slowly over the past two years, finally issuing a draft proposal last month. Waxman is the No. 2 Democrat on the committee.

At the same time, Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) is considering going after Dingell colleague Rick Boucher’s (D-Va.) post as head of Energy’s important subcommittee on air quality. In a move to circumvent industry-friendly octogenarian Dingell, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) named Markey to chair a select committee on global warming over for past 2 years. He held hearings but had no authority over legislation in that post.

Dingell-Boucher bill
Boucher has worked with Dingell to issue a series of white papers and co-authored his proposal, which:
• Relies on a cap-and-trade system covering 88% of the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions.
• Sets a goal of reducing GHG 6% (below 2005 levels) by 2020, 44% in 2030 and 80% by 2050.
• Phases in requirements for utilities in 2012, large industrial plants in 2014 and residential and commercial distribution companies for natural gas in 2017.
• Sidesteps how carbon allowances would be distributed, but says any free credits would be phased out by 2026.
• Increases building code efficiency of 30% by 2010 and 50% by 2020.
• Allows companies to meet some of their compliance targets by offsets, as well as banking or borrowing credits.

Letter of Principles
Waxman, Markey and Rep. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.) presented their own Letter of Principles signed by 152 House members who support – among other things – a faster reduction of emissions to 15-20 percent below current levels by 2020, and 80 percent below 1990 levels by mid-century and would auction all allowances. For more on the Letter of Principals, see an earlier post of Earthling Angst.

Dingell and Waxman are now in a rush to round up House members to support their bids for the chairmanship. Dingell is favored to get support from reps from oil and coal states. Waxman is seen as friendlier to expected Obama Administration’s policies.

(Source: E&E News PM)

‘Stevens effect’ upsets predictions of defeat, while Senate becomes more environment-friendly

(Photo of Jon Stuart spoofing Sen. Ted Stevens on The Daily Show from Flickr and photographer Ellen van den Berg

Nov. 6 update: Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith (R) has conceded to Dem challenger Jeff Merkley, who will be another reliable vote for global warming legislation.

News Update: Forget the ‘Bradley effect.” We now have the “Stevens effect.” Convicted Ted Stevens (R) of Alaska was down 10 points in the polls right before Election Day. But Wednesday afternoon he was leading as votes continued to be counted. Apparently people didn't want to admit to pollsters that they were voting for a convicted felon. Stevens, targeted by the League of Conservation Voters as one of their Dirty Dozen,is about 4,000 votes ahead of his challenger Mark Begich (D). Still to be counted are nearly 50,000 absentee and early-voting ballots, however. Begich would be better for the environment. Stevens' fellow Dirty Dozen colleague Rep. Don Young (R) also was leading Wednesday. Other LCV Dirty Dozen targets who survived were Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), ranking member on the Environment Committee, who doesn't believe in global warming. But there’s good news too. Headed for the Senate and likely to help the cause considerably are Tom Udall (D-N.M.) and his cousin Mark Udall (D-Colo.), as well as Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Kay Hagan (D-N.C.). Mark Warner (D) will replace John Warner (R) from Virginia, though John was a pretty good friend of those fighting climate change. Still hanging in the balance, pending a recount, is Al Franken (Minn,) who is several hundred votes behind incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman (R), though Norm’s voting record hasn’t been bad of late. Another undecided race pits incumbent Gordon Smith (R) against challenger Jeff Merkley (D)in Oregon. Merkley trails slightly but some say votes still to be counted are from Democratic districts. With help from Independents Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Joe Lieberman (Conn.), as well as progressive Republicans like Susan Collins and Olympia Stowe of Maine, President Obama may be able to pass significant global warming legislation. It’ll be interesting to see how John McCain votes, if he votes, now that he’s no longer beholden to the right wing of his party.

Judge blocks NYC plan for hybrid taxis

(Photo of hybrid taxi in NYC from Flickr and nanaze/Nathan Naze)

News Update: I've been critical of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley for not copying New York's plan for a complete switch-over to hybrid taxis in 5 years. Now I see why he may be going slower. A federal district judge has just blocked NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s climate change plan for all new taxis to meet a 25 mpg fuel-economy standard this fall and 30 mpg next October. The judge said only the federal government has authority to determine fuel-economy, based on the Clear Air Act. The Metropolitan Taxicab Board of Trade, which represents the NYC cabs, had filed suit. One argument was that hybrids were too small to install a bullet-proof shield between driver and passengers, but the ruling was not based on that. Bloomberg called federal law on this matter “archaic.” He vowed to work with the NY congressional delegation to strengthen fuel-economy laws so that cities can take action to reduce pollution. He also said he’d ask the city’s Taxi Commission to provide incentives for choosing smaller cabs over the popular Crown Victorias, which get only 12 mpg. Nearly 10% of the city’s taxis are now hybrids. (Source: ClimateWire)

Scientists study worms' impact on climate change

(Photo of worms from Flickr and photographer Ben McLeod)

News Update: If someone criticizes the National Science Foundation for giving a grant to study earthworms, don’t believe it’s frivolous. Worms in forests may have a big impact on the ability of forest soil to store CO2 – but it’s not yet certain whether that impact is good or bad. Worms, which are not native to the U.S. and came with the first settlers, eat the leaves and dead plants on forest floors. But research into whether they release CO2 into the atmosphere or sequester it in the soil is conflicting. As a result their impact is not included in climate models, though it could be profound. Forest soil stores almost twice as much carbon as the trees themselves, according to the U.S. Forest Service. New research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research suggests the impact may be positive. The NSF grant will go to Purdue, Johns Hopkins and the Smithsonian Environment Research Center. (Source: ClimateWire)

Update on key Senate races, and ballot item to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040 in SF

(Photo of voters from Flickr and photographer .micheal.newman)

Weekly Angst: We have some great chances to change the playing field for global warming this Election Day, not only by electing Barack Obama president, but also bringing a half dozen or more champions for the environment into the Senate. As of this weekend, it looks like Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) is now strongly on track to defeat convicted felon Ted Stevens (R) in Alaska. Stevens was one of the League of Conservation Voters’ Dirty Dozen. Begich leads by 10.3 points in Real Clear Politics’ polling average. In other races where environmentalists are in the lead, the Udall cousins, Tom of New Mexico and Mark of Colorado, both Dems, have commanding leads in their respective races for Republican senate seats. Tom is 14.6 points ahead and Mark 12.5. In New Hampshire, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is well ahead (9.8) in her effort to beat incumbent John Sununu.

Two other important races for global warming are leaning toward the candidate favored by environmentalists: Kay Hagan (D) in North Carolina (3.7), Jeff Merkley (D) in Oregon(5.3). In Minnesota Al Franken (D), endorsed by some environmental groups is now trailing incumbent Norm Coleman by an average of 2.2 points in a close race. Another close contest is led by Dirty Dozen’s Mitch McConnell, Republican Minority Leader, whose average lead is 4 points. Unhappily No. 1 on the Dirty Dozen list, Sen. James “Global Warming is a hoax” Inhofe (R-Okla.), is sailing easily to re-election with a lead of 16.7. His opponent, Andrew Rice, can’t rely on Barack Obama’s coattails either, because McCain leads in Oklahoma by 29 points. For more on these Senate candidates, check my post of 2 weeks ago.

Dirty Dozen House members
Several House members targeted by LCV look headed for defeat. Rep. Don Young (R), Alaska’s only Congressman, is running about 8 points behind Dem. Ethan Berkowitz. Young, like Sen. Ted Stevens, has served a long, long time. This red state could lose 2 of its 3 seats in Washington to Democrats. Anne Northrup (R-Ky.) is trailing John Yarmuth (D) by double digits. And Dean Andal (R-Calif.) is 11 points behind Jerry McNerney (D). Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) trailed challenger Mark Schnauer (D) by 8 in the one poll I could find. It’s unclear what’s happening in his Michigan Dirty Dozen colleague Joe Knollenberg’s(R) race against Gary Peters, and DD’s Sam Graves (R-Mo.) has a strong lead to maintain his seat.

Renewable energy on the ballot
Those wacky San Franciscans are way out front once again. This time they hope to pass Proposition H, which would let the city take ownership of the local distribution channels of PG&E, the electric company, and push for 100% renewable energy in the next 3 decades. Supported by 8 of 11 city supervisors, the Sierra Club and the Democratic Party, Prop. H calls for a study of whether the city should become its own electricity provider. Passage would allow the city to issue bonds to pay for the distribution channels, regardless of what the study finds. It also would be able to build wind farms and encourage more rooftop solar panels. Shorter-term goals for the switch to renewable energy are 51% by 2017 and 75% by 2030. PG&E now has 13% renewables.

Part of Pickens Plan also on ballot
A controversial initiative, Prop. 10, will have Californians voting on part of the Pickens Plan – the natural gas part. Pickens himself is the brains behind the ballot measure to provide incentives for vehicles that run on condensed natural gas. His company, Clean Energy Fuels, is bankrolling the measure and environmental groups point out that he stands to benefit financially. Prop. 10 would authorize $5 billion in bonds for renewable energy and alternative fuels, which would include the fossil fuel natural gas. Half the money would go to buyers of alt-fuel vehicles. The Honda Civic that runs on CNG would get a $10,000 rebate, while hybrid Prius would get only $2,000. The measure is opposed by the Sierra Club, LCV and Union of Concerned Scientists. It sets the standard for low-carbon fuels at just 10% less than emissions from gasoline.(BTW, the wind part of Pickens Plan is being downsized because of the credit crunch, T. Boone told the Charlotte Observer last week -- though he wouldn't say by how much. He reportedly has lost hundreds of millions from his hedge fund in the past month.) Also, on the ballot in California is a measure to sell bonds for a high-speed train line between LA and San Francisco.

And then, of course, there’s Obama
In case anyone needs reminding, see my earlier post on why he’s much better than McCain on global warming. And in GOP Veepmate Sarah Palin’s energy policy speech this week, she never once mentioned global warming or climate change.

(Sources include: ClimateWire, Greenwire, Realclearpolitics)

China fossil fuel emissions on track to double

(Photo of pollution haze in Beijing from Flickr and photographer Addictive Picasso)

New Update: A new report from Chinese researchers wsays that greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels will double by 2030 if serious steps aren’t taken to cut them. “China Energy Report,” from the Chinese Academy of Scientists, warns of drastic repercussions if China tries to follow in the steps of developed countries on energy use. Lead author is Wei Yiming, who worked with the UN panel that assessed global warming. The report does not include emissions from farming or deforestation. The Chinese government predicted last year that the country would emit an estimated 2 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2050. The new report estimates 3-4 billion tons. China passed up the U.S. in GHG emissions last year. The Oak Ridge Laboratory estimates U.S. emissions at 1.6 billion in 2007 and China’s at 1.8 billion. (Sources: Reuters, thedailygreen)

Why is Arctic ice melting even in winter?

(Photo of Arctic ice from Flickr and photographer kenyai/Tunde Pecsvari)

News Update: The Arctic polar ice cap is melting even in winter and last winter lost an estimated 20% of its thickness, according to British research out of the University College London. The cause is not winter temperatures, the researchers said. Speculation is that warm water is coming under the ice cap, either from ocean water heating up or currents changing. (Source: London Times )

Warming Greenland glacier causes earthquakes

News Update: Scientists have linked the fast-melting and calving Jakobshavn Glacier in Greenland with increased seismic activity that registers around the world. When a large chunk break off and spills into the fiord it scrapes along the sea bottom and causes quakes of 4.6 to 5.1. Want to see a video of the calving glacier? (note: it’s speeded up 25 times, since these things happen slowly) (Source: Discover)

Financial meltdown slams corn ethanol and threatens mass transit, but Big Oil still riding high

(Photo of ethanol plant from Flickr and and photographer freddthompson, actor, senator and presidential candidate)

Weekly Angst: Because of the financial meltdown, ethanol companies are struggling and some are going under. Caught between corn contracts signed last summer when prices were sky-high and lower fuel prices, and with credit hard to come by, businesses are seeing the ethanol bubble of the past year burst. Investors have lost billions. VeraSun Energy, for example, expects to lose up to $103 million this quarter. Its stock is down 90% from its peak earlier this year. And ethanol companies in Kansas and Ohio declared bankruptcy last week. The Agriculture Department is considering loan guarantees to keep ethanol businesses afloat.

Mass transit hits trouble
Mass Transit agencies are also caught in the crunch. They face having to pay banks billions as old financing deals fall apart. The problem was triggered by the failure of insurance giant AIG, which guaranteed deals between the agencies and banks. Because of long-standing agreements to give banks tax shelters by selling them rail cars and then leasing them back, some 30 mass transit agencies around the country are now in danger of having to pay back their loans all at once. Washington, D.C.’s Metropolitan Area Transit Authority is the first to be hit. KBC Group of Belgium wants $43 million by next week. The feds may have to get in the middle of this one too – to keep the trains running.

Other repercussions include cancellation of a coal-to-liquid joint venture between Consolidated Energy and Synthetic Energy Systems and the delay of a SunCor Energy oil sands project in Canada. (No tears shed over those).

Major oil companies in good shape
So how is the meltdown affecting Big Oil? With prices dropping rapidly you might think they’re feeling the pain. But apparently not. With record profits last year, they have reduced their debt and are cash fat. So now they can buy up distressed smaller rivals and make deals with resource-heavy countries. Production may be down, but refining should be profitable this year. And they expect less pressure to pass windfall profits taxes. So lower prices and lower demand don’t really bother them. (No one ever said life is fair.)

On the bright side
The economic downturn could benefit green technology, though. It could give government a historic opportunity to climate-proof its infrastructure as part of a public works effort to generate jobs. This may translate into an investment opportunity, says a recent report from Deutsche Bank. The International Energy Agency has called for a $45 trillion investment in climate related technology by 2050. And Deutsche Bank says renewable energy investments have more promise in the long term than tradition energy sources.

At the same time, venture capital continues to flow into Silicon Valley and California in general. VC investments in energy and utilities were up in the 3rd quarter 90% over the same period last year, as investors pulled back from other sectors like information technology, media and financial services. Clean tech reported a record $1.08 billion in investments, most of it going to solar. In the Bay Area, which includes Silicon Valley, overall VC was up 22%, the highest single-quarter total since 2001. One benefit of green technology is most of it is tied to government policy so it’s not as vulnerable to swings in the market.
Observers are waiting to see the results of this quarter, however, anticipating that falling oil and carbon prices could have an impact. VC fell in the third quarter in other parts of the country.

And Neal Dikeman, of Jane Capital Partners, warned that a prolonged financial crisis could have an adverse effect on a 2012 post-Kyoto international agreement to fight global warming, by either delaying or weakening it.

For additional comments on the financial crisis’ impact on climate change see my earlier post.

(Sources: Greenwire, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal)

Explorers will measure Arctic ice thickness to determine when it will disappear

(Photo of expedition at North Pole from Flickr and photographer kanati/Adam Grimes)

News Update: A team of 3 British explorers will take a 4-month trip to the North Pole on foot, skis and even swimming, in an effort to determine when Arctic summer ice will disappear. The UN-backed group expects to take 10 million readings to gauge ice thickness, something satellites have been unable to determine. Estimates for summer ice to disappear now range from 5-100 years, so a little more specificity is in order. Summer ice in the Arctic has been receding at a rate of 116,000 square miles per decade (about the size of the British Isles), but no one knows how much it has thinned. The 3 expect to work 12 hours/day in temperatures as low at 58 degrees (F) below zero. Leading the group is British explorer Pen Hadow, who made a pioneering solo walk from Canada to the North Pole in 2003. (Source: PlanetArk)

Scientists will test Antarctic Peninsula ice shelf to better forecast sea level rise

(Photo of Antarctic Peninsula from Flickr and photographer mschutt/Matt S)

News Update: The British Antarctic Survey, including participate from the University of Edinburgh, will send a group to Larson C ice shelf, on the Antarctic peninsula (closest to South America) to try to determine when and if it will break off. Larson A plunged into the sea in 1995 and Larson B in 2002. Larson C, the size of Scotland, is considered vulnerable. The group will drill and use radar in their exploration. While the ice shelf already sits in the sea and will not cause water levels to rise if it breaks off, glaciers on land behind it would likely slide faster into the ocean, and that would cause sea levels to rise, something of great concern to coastal communities. (Source: PlanetArk)

Senate races may tip Congress on global warming

(Photo of Cong. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) speaking at Democratic Convention from Flickr and photographer Jeffrey Beall)

Weekly Angst: Over the past 2 years a narrowly divided Senate has stymied all kinds of efforts to curb global warming. Now we have a chance to elect 8 new senators who could turn that around. In 6 of the 8 races that offer a clear choice, the environmental candidate either leads or is neck-and-neck with an anti-environment one. The 7th race looks bad and the 8th appears to be a lost cause. The key races are in New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon, North Carolina, Alaska, Kentucky and Oklahoma. But there’s also mention of Minnesota and Maine at the end of this blog.

New Mexico: Cong. Tom Udall (D) has a commanding lead over Cong. Steve Pearce (R). Udall leads in the Real Clear Politics average of polls by a commanding 17.6 percentage points. Udall, endorsed by a coalition of 5 national environmental groups, is the son of Stewart Udall, who was Interior Secretary under Kennedy and Johnson. Udall co-wrote the Udall-Platts renewable electricity standard (RES) bill that passed the House last year but not the Senate. It would have mandated that power plants use 15% renewable energy by 2020. He has a lifetime score of 96% with the League of Conservation Voters and is seen as someone who would be a leader in the Senate. His opponent is one of LCV’s Dirty Dozen, with a lifetime score of only 1%. He owns millions of dollars worth of Key Energy stock and voted against repeal of oil subsidies, RES and better fuel economy standards for cars. They are vying for the vacancy left by Republican Pete Domenici’s retirement.

Colorado: Tom’s cousin Mark Udall (D) is a 5-term congressman who also has the endorsement of the 5 national groups who see him as another potential leader against global warming in the Senate. Mark leads his opponent by 9.3 points. The son of “Mo” Udall, who served in Congress 30 years and ran for president, Mark had a 95% LCV score in the last Congress and 100% every term before that. He was involved in passing RES and mandating fuel efficiency for cars (CAFE). He’s running against another Dirty Dozen candidate, former Cong. Bob Schaffer (R), who left Congress to work for an oil company. His lifetime LCV score is 5%. He supports drilling in ANWR and opposes more fuel efficient vehicles and incentives for energy conservation. They are competing for the seat held by Sen. Wayne Allard (R).

New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is the third candidate seen as a leader against global warming and supported by the coalition of 5 organizations (LCV, Sierra Club, Environment America, Defense of Wildlife Action Fund and Clean Water Action.) As governor, she made her state a leader in clean energy. N.H. was the first state to pass a law requiring power plants to cut emissions of 4 pollutants and she made state buildings more energy efficient and promoted alternative energy. She is challenging incumbent Sen. John Sununu (R) and leads him by nearly 6 points in the polls. Sununu has voted for drilling in ANWR, opposes a binding international climate change treaty, and helped block votes on fuel economy, clean energy and the repeal of big oil subsidies. His lifetime LCV average is 35%.

North Carolina: State Sen. Kay Hagan (D), endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters and Environment America, has a narrow lead of 3.4 over incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R). Hagan has an 85% score from the N.C. Conservation Council and is considered a proven leader for clean, renewable energy. She has supported solar energy and an RES for N.C. and opposed big handouts to oil and gas. Dole, one of LCV’s Dirty Dozen, has a lifetime score of just 4%. She has consistently voted for Big Oil and against CAFE standards. She supports incentives for coal and other dirty technologies.

Oregon: This is another state where the incumbent Republican is trailing slightly behind the Dem challenger, State House Speaker Jeff Merkley.
Merkley has a record of leadership in enacting renewable energy solutions, including an RES of 25% by 2025 and favors cutting GHG by 80% by 2050. Merkley leads by 3.3 points and has strong support from Environment America. Incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith, a 2-term senator, is “an election year environmentalist,” according to Environment America. Generally he has sided with the oil and auto industries and voted against fuel efficiency and curbing global warming, while favoring drilling in ANWR. His lifetime LCV score is 37%.

Alaska: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) is challenging 40-year incumbent Ted Steven (R) of bridge-to-nowhere fame and currently on trial for corruption involving gifts and home improvements from an oil man. Begich holds a 2.3 lead in polls and the race is considered a toss-up, despite McCain-Palin's huge lead there. While he has the Alaskan affinity for drilling in ANWR, Begich says Alaska is “ground zero” for global warming and feeling its affects more than anyplace else. He joined the U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Initiative and has replaced streetlights with LEDs, shut down city computers when they’re not in use and harnessed methane from landfills. Stevens, in addition to his other problems, is one of the Dirty Dozen for his environmental policies. He has a 14% lifetime voting record. He consistently votes for tax breaks for oil and has collected $460,000 in gas and oil contributions.

Kentucky: Challenger Bruce Lunsford (D) is putting up a good fight against House Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, though McConnell leads by 6.5 points. While favoring “clean coal” Lunsford also touts investment in renewable resources, efficiency and hybrid cars. He’s a health company entrepreneur and raises thoroughbreds. McConnell is one of LCV’s Dirty Dozen and is considered an “impassable roadblock in the way of clean energy efforts." So it’s more a matter of getting rid of McConnell, who’s position is powerful, than of pushing Lunsford. But 6.5 two weeks out is not encouraging.

Oklahoma: Even more discouraging is Andrew Rice’s (D) challenge against incumbent James Inhofe (R), who won’t even acknowledge global warming exists. Rice trails by 18 points. He is endorsed by the LCV. He favors putting a price on carbon, accelerating the CAFE standards and passing an RES. Inhofe, No. 1 on the Dirty Dozen list, is ranking member of the Environment Committee (used to be chairman) and has threatened to filibuster every piece of global warming legislation. His lifetime score is 5%. He has accepted nearly $1 million from the oil and gas industry.

Minnesota and Maine: Two other races are worth a quick mention: In Minnesota, challenger Al Franken is running a close race with incumbent Norm Coleman (R), and leads slightly by 2.2 points. Coleman’s environmental record isn’t bad, but Franken who calls for an “Apollo Project” in renewable energy, is endorsed by LCV. Also endorsed by LCV is incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) of Maine, who is comfortably ahead (15 points) of challenger Tom Allen (D). Collins often crosses over to vote with the Democratic majority on environmental and other issues and has a 100% LCV score the past 2 years.

Take action: So if you want to see good global warming laws passed by the next Congress, think about sending a contribution to one of the candidates in a toss-up race. And if you live in one of those states, get active and help out in the last 2 weeks if you haven’t already. You can help make a difference.

(Sources: League of Conservation Voters, Sierra Club, Environment America, realclearpolitics.com)

In case you missed it, an earlier EarthlingAngst post shows why Obama is better than McCain for the fight against global warming.


And by the way, Environmental Defense has a cool timeline of progress lost on climate change during the Bush Administration.