Weekly angst

Bali delegates need leadership; IPCC report too dense
The latest, synthesized report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released Saturday, is a disappointment because it’s so hard to read. This is the report that is supposed to be concise and specific and light a fire under delegates at the big international climate forum in Bali in two weeks. The idea was to provide a compass for decision-makers on how to deal with carbon emissions and adapt to a changing climate. There’s a lot there, but most of it is in vague, theoretical and scientific language and hard to fathom.

For example, one of the clearest sections is a list of reasons to be concerned:
* risks to unique and threatened systems
* risks of extreme weather events (that one’s clear)
* distribution of impacts and vulnerability
* aggregate impacts and
* large-scale singularities.

You get my drift.

It’s just too wordy and hard to cut through, except perhaps some of the charts (though they are wordy too). I hope someone has condensed it into a 15-minute Power Point presentation. They want all the delegates to read it and use it, but I doubt anyone will make it to the end, and that’s too bad because the end is where the important stuff is, at least for the group that will be negotiating the follow-up agreement to Kyoto. I’ll paraphrase it for you:

* If we want to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gases at a safe level, we can do it. But we need to start soon.
* Delay increases the risk of severe impacts on the climate.
* Without substantial investment and effective technology transfer among countries, we may not be able to significantly reduce emissions.

The comments about the report were much more clear than the written word.

“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late,” said Rajendra Pachauri, who heads IPCC. “What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” He also noted that the 5–year study doesn’t reflect the recent speedup in climate change, so we’d “better start with intervention much sooner.”

Negotiating an agreement
So thousands of delegates from around the world will head to Bali in early December, with this obtuse 23-page summary to guide them. All will no doubt be thinking about their own needs, so it’s hard to see how they will ever find agreement to substantially reduce Global Warming without strong leadership from someone.

Europe, which is already feeling the impact of climate change, is pushing for strong, mandated reductions. China, the U.S. and India, the top GHG polluters over the next couple of decades, are resisting any mandate that forces them to meet a specific goal (though the U.S. will have a second, Congressional delegation with a different view).

Countries with rainforests want credit given for not cutting them down. Island nations are afraid they will disappear under the rising sea. Oil and coal producing nations are worried about the selling their natural resources. Developing countries want cheap, available fuel (mostly coal) to stoke their booming economies that are lifting people out of poverty.

All these delegates will be starting negotiations with the goal of finding something they can all live with by 2009 (because they know there’s a problem out there somewhere they should deal with). There will likely be a lot of give and take, in an effort to get everyone onboard.

It’s a lot like what’s happening in Washington, D.C., as those who see the coming impact of climate change negotiate with the coal states, the “oil patch” states, the auto state and the skeptics to find a compromise that will get enough votes.

The problem, of course, is there’s no negotiating with Mother Nature.

(Source: http://www.IPCC.ch , New York Times, Greenwire)

Congressional round-up

3 Western govs tout Lieberman-Warner as fed officials recess
Calif. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and the governors of Utah and Montana have made a TV ad calling for Congress to pass the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill. They point out their states have set ambitious targets to reduce GHG and it’s time for Congress to do likewise. The bill is in the Environment and Public Works Committee, and is scheduled for a vote Dec. 5 or 6. EPW chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) would like to strengthen it but warned her colleagues not to expect too much. Meanwhile, some Republican senators worry about energy prices and loss of job. The EPA and the Energy Information Administration, asked by the sponsors to analyze the costs and benefits of the bill, said they can’t do so before year’s end. But the Clean Air Task Force and a Duke University team have found its impact on the economy to be negligible. Congress is now on recess until Dec. 3. (Source: E&E Daily)

Energy bill might be split in two to get the votes – Durbin
As negotiations continue on reconciling two energy bills passed by different chambers this summer, Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said one option is to send two bills to the floor for a vote: one containing the Senate’s CAFE standards of 35 mpg by 2020, the other with the House-passed RES of 15% renewable power by 2020. That may be the best way to get the requisite 60 votes in the Senate, some say. Oil industry taxes remain an issue, according to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who also said a final deal should include something for the coal states pushing for coal-to-liquid, which releases more carbon than gasoline. Meanwhile, some senators want to move the biofuel standards (RSF) from the energy bill to the farm bill, which would lose the energy bill some votes. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said it should remain in the energy bill. (Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM)

News in brief

Mediterranean could become a saltier, stagnant sea
Europe is heating up faster than the rest of the world and Italian researchers fear the impact on the Mediterranean Sea will be devastating. Surface temperatures are increasing 1 degree per decade and the heat and salinity could eventually wipe out half the fish and plant species, scientists said at a recent climate conference in Rome. As the sea evaporates and become saltier, it could start flowing out to the Atlantic at Gibraltar instead of vice versa. And a decline in algae could mean the Mediterranean would absorb one-third less CO2, the scientists warned. (Source: Associated Press)

UN asks OPEC ministers to discuss climate change at summit
OPEC should look for ways to limit carbon emissions, Yvo deBoer, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, said last week. In response, OPEC officials said climate change is one of three topics the ministers would address at their summit in Riyadh over the weekend. “International action on climate change is a war against emissions, not a war against oil,” deBoer said. OPEC markets 40% of the world’s oil. He specifically suggested they look at funding research on carbon capture and sequestration and “put the first dollar on the table” so other nations would follow suit. OPEC Sec. Gen. Abdullah al-Badri turned it around a bit, saying if developed nations with the know-how and financial resources take the lead, “We’ll try to contribute.” (Source: PlanetArk)

Midwest governors strike regional cap-and-trade agreement
Six Midwest states and Manitoba, Canada, signed a pact last week to start a regional cap-and-trade program, starting in 2010. This brings the number of states in such agreements to 20. Similar pacts exist in the Northeast, Southwest and West. Signing on were Ill., Iowa, Kan., Mich., Minn. and Wis. Their goal is 60-80% reduction in GHG by 2050. Three other states – Ind., Ohio and S.D. – signed on as observers, while Mo., Neb. and N.D. did not sign at all. Details are still to be determined. At the same time, 8 states and Manitoba pledged to increase efficiency, renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage within a regional framework by 2010. (Source: E&E News PM)

London’s famous red buses will start turning ‘green’
London, England, is buying 10 hydrogen-powered buses, to help curb pollution and CO2 emissions. It will test two different types: 5 with fuel cells and 5 with hydrogen-burning internal combustion engines. The buses are costing about $2 million each. The mayor’s goal is to have 5% of all public sector vehicles on hydrogen by 2015. London has 8,000 buses, some of which are diesel hybrids. (Source: PlanetArk)

Xtreme weather watch

Winter forecast: much warmer than usual in NE, Midwest
Temperatures will be above normal starting in mid-December in the Midwest and Northeast, according to an Accuweather forecast. The Northeast, which was 7 degrees above normal in October, may see colder-than-usual temps over the next month, but January and February should be much warmer. The Pacific Northwest is expected to be colder than usual. The Southeast can expect continued drought, probably for a number of years, in part because of a warming trend in the Atlantic. La Niña is also a factor in the winter warmth. (PlanetArk)

Crocs on loose as more floods hit Vietnam, raise death toll
Hundred of crocodiles escaped from cages in Vietnam as floods swept through a breeding farm last week. Several were caught and shot. A new onslaught of rain raised the season’s official death toll to 332 by midweek, as 61,000 homes were submerged. A similar disaster in August left 1 million hungry. This year’s floods were some of the worst in decades. 2,500 foreign tourists were confined to hotels as roads and railways in the country were washed out. (PlanetArk)

Cyclone hits Bangladesh, 600,000 evacuated to shelters
Cyclone Sidr, the worst in a decade, swept across Bangladesh Thursday, driving hundreds of thousands to shelters and killing at least 3,000. The toll could go as high as 10,000 when outlying islands are reached. Low-lying Bangladesh is vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges and is predicted to be one of the places most in danger from rising seas due to Global Warming. About 10 million people live along the coastline. (Reuters, Associated Press)

Take action

Starting your holiday shopping? Think green. Some ideas: reusable shopping bags, reusable water bottles, a mass transit pass, “An Inconvenient Truth” DVD or book, a donation or membership to an organization that fights Global Warming (Sierra Club, League of Conservation Voters, Environmental Defense, Natural Resources Defense Council), CFL lightbulbs, anything organic. For more ideas, Check out: http://www.greenandmore.com.

Opening comment: NBC just had Green Week, calling attention to Global Warming. I didn’t see much of it, but I did look at CNBC now and then as the stock market fell off a cliff. And I witnessed at least 4 skeptics casting aspersions on Al Gore, the Natural Resources Defense Council and all who want to do something about Climate Change. One said it was “almost anti-capitalism.” Well, yeah. If capitalism means short-term greed trumps everything else: your children’s future, nature, health, caring about the well-being of people around the world, not wanting coastal cities to disappear … Arrrgh! May his Long Island summer home be swept away in the next storm surge! This is what we’re up against, folks, despite the number of corporations that are in the fight with us: short-sighted greed, and the blind ignorance that goes with it.


Weekly angst

World will still be hooked on fossil fuels in 2030 – IEA
Fossil fuels will still reign in 2030, the International Energy Agency said last week in its Annual World Energy Outlook. Oil will remain the single largest source of energy (32%), but will lose some ground to cheaper, more abundant coal (28%). Natural gas will come in third at 22%. Nuclear is seen shrinking to 5%, with biomass/waste at 9%, and other renewables and hydro each at 2%.

A 55% increase in energy use is expected by that date, mainly in Asia, where booming economic growth is lifting millions of people out of poverty.

Global temperature could soar
The average world temperature is expected to rise at least 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit), as emissions increase a projected 57%. That means we’ll exceed the IPCC-recommended limit of 450 ppm of CO2, which would result in a temperature increase of 2.4C (4.3F).

To achieve the recommended level, greenhouse gases would have to peak by 2015 (that’s just 8 years away) and then fall 50-80% by 2050, IEA said. This would require a massive energy-efficiency campaign, a switch to non-fossil fuels, and unprecedented technological advances at considerable cost.

Not very likely, says IEA.

Their most optimistic scenario is a 1% rise in GHG per year till 2030, resulting in a 5.4F peak temperature, then a steady decline. The most pessimistic scenario is for a 10.8F peak, if China and India continue their strong economic growth unabated. To put that in context, the average world temperature has grown just 1.44 degrees F in the 107 years since 1900, and that increase has caused melting glaciers and ice sheets, as well as permafrost retreat. A 10-degree rise would be cataclysmic.

China and India
“Staggering” economic growth in China and India, and throughout Asia, is the main reason for the expected future surge in GHG. China accounted for 58% of the increase from 2000-2006 and its share of world emissions will rise from 20% to 25%, though per capita emissions will still be less than half that of the U.S. By 2015, the 3 biggest GHG polluters will be, in order, China, the U.S. and India, the report said.

Keeping Global Warming within safe limits may be out of reach, the report said, in part because there is more talk than action in most countries. If governments did everything they are talking about, renewables could provide 17% of power, GHG could be held to an increase of 25%, and the average temperature would rise 5.4F.

“Unprecedented political action” is needed to keep the planet at a safe level, said IEA. And that will be costly, no doubt about it. For example, the world will have to retire some fossil fuel plants prematurely, at an estimated cost of $1 trillion.

But we’re going to pay the price, one way or the other.

This report comes out as world governments prepare to meet next month in Bali, to start forging an international agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol. Let’s hope they all read it – and feel the heat.
(Sources: Greenwire, PlanetArk and Agence France-Presse)

Congressional round-up

The Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill (S. 2191) is scheduled for a vote in the Environment and Public Works Committee Dec. 5-6, Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said Thursday. Earlier, Boxer had hoped to vote the bill out of committee this week, but she was under severe criticism from some members who wanted more time. Votes on amendments are expected the 5th, with a final committee vote that day or the next, she said. There are pressures to both strengthen and weaken the bill. Key sponsor Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) told reporters last week he doesn’t expect the 2020 target to change from 15% below 2005 levels, but there may be consensus on tightening the 2050 limits (now 63%) and moving up the date for 100% auction of credits from 2036. Boxer said it’s unlikely the bill will see final action on the Senate floor before year’s end.

6,000 college students rallied for 80% by 2050 on Capitol Hill last Monday, as a new coalition, 1Sky, pushed for a more aggressive cap-and-trade bill. They urged support for the stricter Sanders-Boxer and Waxman bills instead of Lieberman-Warner, and called for 100% auction of credits, a moratorium on new coal plants, and using cap-and-trade proceeds to create 5 million new green jobs.

Negotiations to reconcile the energy bills continued, as advocates pressed for inclusion of the Senate’s corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards and House’s renewable electricity standards (RES), as well as a provision on biofuels, transfer of tax breaks from oil to renewables, and removal of loan guarantees for new nuclear plants. The final bill is expected to go the House and Senate for a vote in December. 60 votes are needed in the Senate to avoid a filibuster.

Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) has called on the EPA to explain why it gave permission for a new coal-fired plant in Utah without requiring greenhouse gas controls. He called the approval a missed opportunity and illegal under the Clean Air Act. The EPA responded that it has no regulations in place yet for regulating GHG. Waxman said he plans to investigate and will introduce a bill to prohibit permits unless plants use state-of-the-art technology to reduce emissions. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) introduced a similar bill in the Senate in April. Kerry also has a bill to boost R&D funds for demonstration projects on capture and sequestration of carbon at 6-10 plants.
(Congressional round-up sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM)

News in brief

Americans overwhelming want better auto fuel economy
A poll conducted last week showed that 86% of the people want improved auto fuel efficiency and don’t buy the arguments against it by the auto industry. Support for improved fuel-economy standards cut across all major political demographic groups, with 90% of Democrats in favor, 83% of Republicans and 83% of Independents. Their greatest concerns were security (oil dependency) and the price of gasoline. While the general public has always wanted improved fuel efficiency, it has risen to a top priority, said the Democrat and GOP pollsters who conducted the survey. (Source: E&E News PM)

California sues EPA over long waiver delay; other states to join
California sued the EPA Thursday, seeking to force a decision on whether the state can implement the nation’s first greenhouse gas emissions standards for cars and light trucks. Other states that plan to join the suit are Ariz., Conn., Ill., Maine, Md., Mass., N. J., N. M., N. Y., Ore., Pa., R. I., Vt. and Wash. California sought the waver about 2 years ago, and turned up the heat earlier this year when the Supreme Court said greenhouse gases are pollutants under the Clean Air Act. The EPA said there would be an answer at the end of the year, along with a set of regulations for GHG emissions. But California says there’s urgency because their rules apply to 2009 car models, which are being planned now. A waiver for California would allow 11 other states that have adopted the regulations to enforce theirs as well. Several other states are in the process of adopting similar restrictions. (Source: Associated Press)

Worldwide poll shows people willing to sacrifice, pay more
In a BBC global poll announced last week, 83% of those surveyed realized lifestyle changes will be needed to mitigate global warming. In 14 of the 21 countries surveyed, 61% said it will be necessary to pay increased energy costs and be more energy-efficient. A smaller number, but still a majority, were OK with a climate tax as long as all the money went to clean energy and efficiency. The poll surveyed 22,000 people and will be used as ammunition when environment ministers meet in Bali in December to discuss a post-Kyoto agreement. (Source: PlanetArk)

Chicago goes green with world’s largest commercial building
The 4.2 million-square-foot Merchandise Mart and the McCormick Place convention center have both received LEED certification, the city announced last week to the U.S. Green Building Council’s GreenBuild conference in Chicago. The Mart will undergo an extensive energy retrofit through the city’s partnership with the Clinton Climate Initiative, which brokered $5 billion for Chicago and 15 other cities to become more energy-efficient. The announcement was the leading edge of Chicago’s extensive Climate Action Plan, which will be rolled out over the next few months. Energy efficiency for commercial and multi-family residential buildings will be a major part of the plan to cut 25% of GHG emissions by 2020. The soon-to-be tallest building in the world, the Chicago Spire, is aiming for LEED certification, too. LEED stands for Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design, and is a program of the U.S. Green Building Council. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

Lush Kauai in Hawaiian Islands is going dry. Last month only 0.39 inches of rain were reported in the town of Lihue there, the driest October since records began in 1950. And August-October saw only 1.27 inches of rain, the lowest for any three-month period on record. Though a rainstorm last week dropped a welcome 1.47 inches, there’s concern the drought will get worse this winter. (New York Times)

Tibet is so dry people are waking up with nosebleeds. Humidity was at record lows in October in the country, which is heating up faster from Global Warming than any other place on Earth, according to China’s state media. Scientists have warned of melting glaciers, dried up rivers and desertification. (PlanetArk)

At least 82 were killed in floods in Vietnam last week as the nation was on alert for a possible typhoon to add to the misery. Nearly 200 have died in since early October and there are concerns the flooding will spread bird flu. (PlanetArk)

Take action

Do everything you can to urge Congress to pass a strong energy bill, with corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards of 35 mpg by 2020 and renewable electricity standards (RES) of 15% by 2020. Your reps will be on recess from Nov. 16-Dec. 3. Call or take friends and visit them in their home office, to remind them this is a top priority for their constituents. Ask your mayor to weigh in and send a letter to their congressional delegation. Write a letter to the editor to let the media know this issue is important. At a minimum, go on your senators’ Web sites and send them a message to “pass a strong energy bill this year.” For help, visit the Sierra Club's energy Web site at http://www.sierraclub.org/flip. Also, go to http://environmentaldefensse.org/climatevote07. and sign a letter to the leadership and your elected representatives in Washington.

Weekly angst

How much CO2 did the California fires release?
Picture the freeway in Los Angeles at morning rush hour, with rows and rows of cars making their long daily commute. Now picture the wildfires that hit Southern California last month. Which put the most carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?

According to a study published in the journal Carbon Balance and Management, the fires released about 8.7 million metric tons of CO2. That’s equal to all the fossil fuels burned in the state of California in a week. The estimate for the entire U.S. was 293 million tons per year from 2002-2006, or 4-6% of total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The study, by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado, had a margin of error of 50%, because it’s so hard to know exactly how much carbon was in the trees and plants and what percent of them burned.

Other estimates varied wildly. The Forest Foundation, which advocates for active timber management, came in higher, estimating the amount of all greenhouse gases released – including methane and nitrous oxide – at 26.5 million tons, equivalent to 5 million cars. Other estimates were closer to the Colorado study. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) said less than 6 million tons of CO2, based on preliminary data. The U.S. Forest Service came in at 5-6 million tons. All used different models and different data, with a huge margin of error.

So clearly it’s an inexact science. With many more fires on the horizon (the fire season has lengthened by 78 days), we need to get a better handle on this.

Wildfire CO2 vs. fossil fuels
The Colorado researchers see a difference between emissions from fires and those from the burning of fossil fuels. The carbon from the fires, as part of a natural cycle, will eventually be absorbed by plants as they regenerate, they said. The carbon from fossil fuels, however, has been locked in the ground as oil and coal for millions of years and won’t be reabsorbed by the ecosystem.

But the ability of some forests to absorb enough CO2 is called into question by another new study, this one in the journal Nature. University of Wisconsin researcher Tom Gower measured boreal forests in Manitoba, Canada, and found they went from weak carbon “sinks” to weak carbon sources in recent decades, mainly because of fires. In addition to the trees that burn, exposed soil hit by sunlight speeds decomposition, releasing more carbon, he said.

There may already be a feedback loop in the boreal forests, in northern latitudes such as the upper parts of Canada, Alaska, Siberia, Scandinavia and China, Gower said. That means the more GHG emissions, the warmer and dryer it gets, the more fires there are, the more GHG are released … ad infinitum. And maybe it doesn’t all get reabsorbed.

Need better understanding
Clearly we need better measurements of how much carbon forests store and release, and under what conditions, so we can maximize their role as sinks to mitigate Global Warming.

The California Air Resources Board is moving in that direction. In late October it passed the nation’s first standards for forest-generated carbon emissions. The Forest Protocols, which took 4 years to develop, will help quantify emission reductions for forests based on management and planting. The agency thinks California forests have the potential to take 10 million tons out of the air by 2020.

It’s time for other states – and nations – to follow suit. Especially if carbon offsets are going to be offered for planting or stopping destruction of trees. We need to know better how this all works.
(Sources: Globeandmail.com, E&E Daily, PlanetArk, Greenwire, Land Letter)

Congressional round-up

Senate votes to increase funds for Amtrak expansion
The Senate last week approved a measure to increase Amtrak funding from $1.3 billion a year to nearly $2 billion annually, for the next 6 years. While most is for operations, $1.4 billion will be available for states to expand or start new rail service as an alternative to automobile or air travel. The House is expected to act on a similar bill next year. (Source: Greenwire)

GOP Energy Action Team wants more coal, oil, gas and nuclear
Some House Republican leaders have formed an action team to speak out against the energy bill negotiations now in progress, criticizing the individual bills passed by the House and Senate as falling short on coal-to-liquid, oil, gas, nuclear power and offshore drilling. Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas) has asked Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) to try to influence the negotiations through House Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.). (Source: E&E News PM)

Cap-and-trade bill OK’d in subcommittee by 4-3 vote
After turning back amendments to strengthen it, the Global Warming Subcommittee narrowly approved the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill (S. 2191) last week. Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) was the only Republican to vote for the bill, by proxy because of complications from recent heart surgery. Independent Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who submitted the amendments, voted against it. Subcommittee Chair Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) said the amendments would have made the carefully crafted compromise fall apart. The bill now moves on to the full Environment Committee for hearings starting Thursday. (Source: Greenwire)

House cap-and-trade version stalls behind energy negotiations
In contrast to the Senate, where cap-and-trade is moving ahead simultaneously with efforts to reconcile the two energy bills, the House won’t act until energy negotiations are over, said House Energy Chair Dingell and Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), who drafted the House bill. Earlier they said they’d consider the bill this fall, but now next year seems more likely. (Source: E&E Daily)

News in brief

Seas could rise 1 meter in next 50 years, some scientists say
Several climate scientists say seas could rise a meter (39 inches) in the next 50 years. Others agree they will rise that much, though it might take 100 years or even 150. And “there’s nothing we can do about it,” University of Victoria’s Andrew Weaver, a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, told Associated Press. Among those in danger from high water are Wall Street, Silicon Valley, major airports and interstates, and popular beaches in Texas and Florida. Maps at the University of Arizona show what will happen when melting ice sheets and glaciers, plus expanded warm sea water cause a rise of 1 meter, engulfing an estimated 25,000 square miles of U.S. land. Subway floods like those in NYC last summer, could become a regular event and storm surges will be more devastating. Expect a future debate on what is worth saving and at what cost, said Donald Boesch, a scientist at the University of Maryland. The change will be slow, though, allowing people to ignore it for some time. (Source: AP)

Corporations not living up to their greenhouse promises
A closer look at some companies that pledged a reduction in GHG reveals that many of them aren’t meeting their stated goals. Fed Ex, for example, said in 2003 it would buy 2,000 hybrid trucks a year, but 4 years later it has purchased fewer than 100. The company says hybrids cost 75% more. Aspen Skiing Co., despite high goals, gets only 1% of its power from hydro and solar. The person in charge of sustainability at Aspen told Business Week, “How do you really green your company? It’s f------ impossible.” And Nike, which slightly lowered its emissions lately, is up 50% since 1998, while Sony is up 17% in a year. (Source: Greenwire)

New company to provide charged batteries for electric cars
Shai Agassi has a plan to separate electric cars from their batteries, to make them more practical and cheaper than gasoline-powered cars. The software engineer, formerly with SAP AG, has started a company called Better Place. Automakers will furnish the cars, he will provide the batteries (which he sees as more like fuel). Better Place will set up a network of stations that will switch out drained batteries for recharged ones, for a subscription price. He thinks that will also enable drivers to use smaller batteries than carmakers now envision. (Source: Greenwire)

New York City eyes law to require recycling of plastic bags
A law was introduced in New York City Council last week to require stores of more than 5,000 square feet to provide in-store recycling of plastic bags. About 700 grocery stores would be affected, as well as big retail outlets like Home Depot and Target. The state of California passed a similar law in July, and San Francisco banned the use of plastic bags in supermarkets last spring. Americans use an estimated 84 billion plastic bags each year, which eats up 12 million barrels of oil. (Sources: PlanetArk, Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

An atypical La Niña weather pattern will bring more dryness to drought-stricken Australia this winter, rather than the rain it usually brings. Abnormally cool seas north of Australia and into the Indian Ocean have altered expected weather patterns associated with La Niña, said the UN’s World Meteorological Organization. WMO warned that La Niña could cause weather disruptions on a “planetary scale.” (PlanetArk, E&E News PM)

Hurricane Noel was the deadliest storm in the Atlantic this year, leaving at least 115 dead as it raged through the Caribbean. The storm poured a record 15 inches of rain on the Bahamas and 10-20 inches on treeless hillsides in Haiti, where 90% of the forests have been cut down for charcoal. In Cuba, a dam overflowed and damaged at least 2,000 home. (AP, PlanetArk)

Governors of drought-stricken Georgia, Alabama and Florida met with federal officials last week and reached a temporary agreement to cut the flow from Georgia’s Lake Lanier by 16%. Georgia is concerned the reservoir, the main source of Atlanta’s drinking water, will dry up in three months and wanted to cut back the flow by half. Alabama and Florida, on the other hand, worried the flow to them, if curtailed that much, would endanger the fishing industry and an electric power station. A permanent deal is sought by February, in a 20-year water dispute that has grown much more serious because of the drought. (E&E News PM)

Take action

Help put pressure on the EPA to grant California a waiver to regulate tailpipe emissions. Submit a question today, asking why they haven’t granted the waiver yet, at http://www.epa.gov/askepa. California has been waiting for nearly 2 years for the EPA to act. By stalling, the agency is keeping other states from regulating GHG from cars too. If you live in any of the following states, you need California to get its waiver so your state can implement the law it passed: Md., N.J., Conn., Mass., R.I., Vermont, Maine, Pa., Vt., Ore. and Wash. If you live in Ill., Utah, Ariz., N.M. or Fla., your state is considering a clean car act, but won’t be able to enforce it. Some of the questions submitted will be answered this Thursday in an online forum. Send a copy of your question to dfaulkner@nrdc.org who will monitor the forum to see if the EPA is avoiding questions about the waiver.

Weekly angst

Mass transit must expand; Chicago running in reverse
The “city that works,” has a problem. The state that doesn’t work right now (an intra-party feud I won’t get into) hasn’t come up with the money to keep mass transit running, so we are facing a so-called “doomsday scenario” Nov. 4, with plans to eliminate 39 bus routes and raise prices from $2 to $3 or more. And that will be followed by a double-dare doomsday in January with even more cuts and fare increases, if state leaders can’t get their act together.

This at a time when a new report with the cumbersome name “Public Transportation’s Contribution to U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction” tells us we should be increasing mass transit.

Greenhouse gases from transportation make up about one-third of the total emitted in the U.S.

Two-car households could cut their carbon footprint 30% by eliminating one car and using public transit instead, the report says. They could save more that way than by insulating their home and adjusting their thermostat (though they should do both).

Transportation emissions in 2005 were 6.9 million tons less than they would have been if everyone used private cars, the report says. Of that, 3 million tons was saved because of the additional traffic congestion and delays that were prevented. A single person saves 2 metric tons a year by using public transit.

Other benefits
Additional benefits of public transportation include less need for parking, both on- and off-street; more efficient use of roads; shorter commute times; and enabling higher-density land use, which leads to fewer miles traveled, the report says.

In the period 1990-2004, vehicle emissions grew 29%. SUVs and light trucks grew the most, with emissions up 64%, compared with 1.8% for cars.

Daily commuting time in cars has increased 7.5% per year, largely because of congestion, causing stress to workers and their families, as well as wasted gas. Nationwide, 78% of commuters drive to work alone, though that figure varies state-to-state. In New York it’s 56%, in Michigan 85%.

What can be done?
Even with increased corporate auto fuel economy (CAFE) standards (higher mpg), emissions from transportation won’t decline in the future because of the continuing increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). VMT closely tracks GDP in the U.S., not to mention the coming increase in cars in developing countries like China.

Gas prices do seem to make a difference. Part of the reason for increased driving in recent decades was a decline in gasoline prices after 1975. But in May this year, prices hit a new high of $3.26/gallon, so that may slow things down.

King County in Washington state is a paragon of mass transit, according to the report. It has plans to switch to biodiesel and expects to reduce CO2 emission by 22,000 metric tons. It also plans to increase ridership significantly. Other good examples are Grand Rapids, Mich., and New York City. The latter is switching buses to compressed natural gas and hybrids. (Last week at LaGuardia Airport I saw two hybrid buses and a hybrid cab in the course of a few minutes). NY hopes to have 40% hybrid buses by 2010.

Increasing mass transit ridership is the key to reducing emissions and at the same time cutting traffic congestion. In NYC, the MTA increased ridership 8.5% on subways between 2000-2006. Cities can stimulate additional mass transit use by making less parking available, charging fees to enter the downtown and collecting tolls, the report concludes.

Meanwhile, in Chicago we’re going the opposite direction. If you live in Illinois, tell your elected reps – including the governor – to get on the ball and fund the CTA. NOW. Go to http://www.savechicagotransit.com.

Congressional round-up

• Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) blocked a formal Conference Committee on the energy bill last week, because she objected to the plan to take billions in tax breaks from the oil companies and give them to clean energy. Negotiations continued informally, however, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said she hopes to wind things up before the Nov. 16 recess and have a vote either that week or Dec. 3.
• Citigroup called the fuel economy (CAFE) standards in the Senate-passed energy bill “tough but attainable” in a report last week. Auto lobbyists are asking for a weaker version, saying they can’t attain the standards in the Senate bill.
• Senate Environment Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) pushed to move along the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill quickly, in the hope it would be out of committee when she leads a Congressional delegation to Bali for international talks in December. She doesn’t want the Bush administration to be the only ones representing the U.S. in these important negotiations about a post-Kyoto agreement, and she would like to be able to show some progress.
• Lieberman-Warner picked up an important vote in subcommittee when Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) offered his support. It’s the first time Baucus has been in favor of cap-and-trade and his vote is a key one. Now they need one more, either from the left or from the right.
(Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM, Sierra Club)

Take action

Tell your Senators in Washington to support a strong energy bill. Go to the Environmental Law and Policy Center’s Web site at: http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/federal_clean_energy_bill. and add your name.

This Saturday is Climate Action Day across the country. Join a Step It Up action near where you live. Get the details at http://www.StepItUp2007.org.

News in brief

CO2 going into atmosphere 35% faster, as land and sea absorb less
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere grew 35% faster than predicted from 2000-2006, a new British-Australian study reveals. While some of the speed-up is caused by rapid global economic growth, half the unexpected increase is due to less absorption of CO2 by the land and oceans, likely because of changing wind patterns and droughts, the authors found. The study, published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was based on data collected by the UN and NOAA. A second study, by the University of East Anglia, showed the uptake of CO2 in the North Atlantic dropped by half from the mid-90s to the period 2000-2005. (Source: Greenwire, BBC)

Get ready for a world with less oil, many experts caution
Some say worldwide oil production has peaked; others say it will do so soon. In either case, the impact on economies and lifestyles will be extreme. A German study by Energy Watch, a think tank with ties to the Green Party, says oil peaked in 2006 and now will go down 7% a year, falling more than 50% by 2030. The Editor of Petroleum Review, Chris Skrebowski, sees the peak coming in 2010 or 2011. Energy Watch gave its report recently at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil-USA conference. There, some of the talk was about “peak exports,” with predictions that oil-producing countries will soon hold back more for themselves, including for future generations. Meanwhile, the oil industry glosses over such dire predictions and most of the public is unaware. How will the impending energy gap be filled? Energy Watch says it will be hard to produce enough alternative fuel fast enough and gas pumps will run dry. Others say the answer is in Canada’s vast tar sand deposits and coal-to-liquid, both of which are ecologically dirty. (Sources: PlanetArk, The Guardian, Falls Church News-Press)

Global demand seen for more smaller, cheaper cars
Automobile companies are increasingly developing smaller, low-cost cars, as they see global demand for them rising 30% by 2013. While gasoline prices are a factor, most of the growth will be in developing countries where first-time buyers want small, inexpensive cars. SUV growth is seen as dropping 4% in that time. Toyota has said it may have a $7,000 car by 2010. Electric cars would work well in France, the company says, because 80% of electricity comes from nuclear power. But in China electricity comes from coal, so electric cars won’t help much with greenhouse gases. Mazda research is focused on hydrogen as a fuel. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

Whether the recent California fires are the result of climate change is in some dispute. Some of the causes had nothing to do with Global Warming – increased building in wooded areas, the Forest Service’s habit of putting out fires too fast and leaving underbrush as fuel, and of course the notorious Santa Ana winds. But the California fires, like other mega-fires of the past few years that are much bigger and hotter and harder to fight, took place in an environment that had:
• An average yearly temperature increase of 1 degree F in the West.
• A fire season that is now 78 days longer than in the late ‘80s, due to early spring melt and runoff.
• 9 fewer inches of rain this year than normal.
• Triple-digit summer temperatures.
(Christian Science Monitor, CBS 60 Minutes)

Georgia’s dispute with Alabama and Florida over how much water should be released from Lake Lanier, Atlanta’s main source of drinking water, is heating up. All three states have appealed to the president – Georgia to cut the flow and the other two states to keep it as usual. Florida says a cutback will damage fisheries and the oyster/shellfish business in the Panhandle, while Georgia is worried Atlanta won’t have enough to drink (though Macon has offered to truck some in for a price). The three states have squabbled over water rights since the early ‘90s, but the extreme drought facing them all has pumped up the volume. (Greenwire)

Meanwhile, Georgia’s weather forecast for next year isn’t very encouraging. The state climatologist said last week it will be drier and hotter in 2008, though how much so will depend on the strength of La Niña. With less rain than normal, the record drought now troubling the northern part of the state is likely to last into spring and summer, David Stooksbury said. (Greenwire)

North and South Carolina, as well as Tennessee, are affected by drought as well. In S.C., the town of Rock Spring has been dry for a month, with pickups bringing in water to keep the cattle alive. A Baptist minister has even put baptisms on hold. In N.C., the governor has asked for a voluntary cut of 50% in consumption until month’s end, to see how much conservation they can accomplish voluntarily. (Greenwire)

Autumn leaves are duller now in New England, where fall colors brought 3.4 million people to Vermont in 2005. “It’s nothing like it used to be,” said U. of Vermont biologist Tom Vogelmann, because autumn is too warm now for rich, vibrant colors. Cold nights are needed to stem the flow of water to the leaves, and warmth has brought fungus to attack the usually dazzling red and sugar maples. Of course, the tourism industry is slow to admit the problem. Just wait, they say, and come in late October, rather than the second week, which used to be the peak. (Associated Press)

Weekly angst

Congress has chance to lead on climate -- or not
Will automakers have to build more fuel-efficiency cars and SUVs? Will electric companies have to draw more of their power from clean sources like wind and solar instead of just coal? Will huge tax breaks be shifted from fossil fuels to renewable energy to give them a fighting chance of competing? And will the U.S. finally take a leadership role in the fight against Global Warming by mandating a cap on GHG emissions? Or will we just sit by and watch the world get warmer, the weather more extreme and the seas higher?

These things will probably be decided in the next few weeks. And you can help determine the outcome by telling your representatives in Washington how you feel. For sure, the auto and oil industries are making their wishes known.

So Capitol Hill is where the important Global Warming action is right now. And they really need to wind things up by the end of the year, with primary season looming in January. Here’s a weekly update:

• After starting informal negotiations Monday in an effort to reconcile the two summer energy bills, Democratic leaders are on the verge of launching a formal Conference Committee as GOP objections are withdrawn.
• The three main issues for Dem leaders and environmental groups are the Senate’s 35 mpg by 2020 CAFE standards, the House-passed 15% renewable electricity standard (RES) by 2020, and $15 billion in efficiency and renewable energy tax incentives funded by repeal of oil tax breaks.
• Opponents are demanding changes in the CAFE standards, especially different requirements for cars and light trucks (SUVs).
• The White House has threatened a veto unless some items are removed, including oil taxes, and CAFE standards and the biofuels mandate are modified.
• The Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill was finally introduced Thursday with two main changes: a 15% cut in GHG by 2020 (instead of 10%), and no more free credits to manufacturers after 2036 (formerly 2050). Some subcommittee members find the bill too strong and others find it too weak, so prospects are uncertain. Environmental groups are split on this “compromise” bill.

More about the energy bill
Bipartisan, bicameral negotiations started this week with some of the less controversial items, such as efficiency, and went day and night after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared there’d be no formal Conference due to GOP objections. By week’s end those objections were being withdrawn and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid seemed poised to announce a Conference.

President Bush asked for the following:
• Separation of cars and trucks in the CAFE provision
• No renewable electricity standard
• Alternative fuels of about 35 billion gallons by 2017, including coal, natural gas and hydrogen.
• No removal of oil tax breaks
• No reduction of domestic oil and gas production
• Removal of “price-gouging” penalties and the ability to bring anti-trust action against OPEC.
Absent these changes, he threatened to veto the bill. Some lawmakers countered he is “too cozy” with the oil interests.

Bipartisan opponents of the CAFE standards in the Senate include Michigan’s two Democratic Senators, Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, and Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio), who sent a letter to leaders saying the bill is “overly stringent.” They asked for something more like the industry-approved Hill-Terry proposal of 32 mpg by 2022, with separate requirements for cars and light trucks and credit for flex-fuel vehicles. Also signing the letter were Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), Kit Bond (R-Mo.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.).

House Speaker Pelosi said she is looking to wrap up negotiations on this bill by Nov. 16, before a two-week recess, and vote Dec. 3.

More on Lieberman-Warner (S.B. 2191)
The “compromise” cap-and-trade bill from Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.) was finally introduced this week. It draws from nearly a dozen other bills and mandates an overall GHG reduction of 63% by 2050, from power plants, transportation and manufacturing. Instead of mandates for residential and commercial buildings, it sets new efficiency standards for buildings and appliances.

It begins by auctioning 24% of the credits in 2012, up to 73% by 2036. The rest would be allocated free, mainly to manufacturers affected most by the law. That seems to be the main point of contention for those who want stronger action. Global Warming subcommittee Sens. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called for auctioning more credits and insisted the federal law not pre-empt states from taking stronger action (which it doesn’t at this point).

Some environmental groups – Clean Air Watch and U.S. PRIG – are disappointed and want 100% of the credits auctioned, while others, such as Environmental Defense, Natural Resources Defense Council and World Wildlife Federation, praised the bill as a strong step in the right direction. The Sierra Club called for 20% by 2020 and more credits auctioned. The president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change said, “This is the breakthrough we’ve been waiting for – a bill with a real chance of passing.”

Environment Chair Barbara Boxer has promised hearings, but the prospects for the bill are unclear at this point. A group of power companies have asked for a “safety valve,” a cap on the price they would have to pay for credits. Lieberman-Warner does not have a “safety valve” but does allow for flexibility if prices are too high for too long.

Original co-sponsors of the 200-page bill are Sens. Robert Casey (D-Pa.), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.).

Lieberman’s Global Warming subcommittee will hold hearings on the bill this Wednesday. He plans on markup Nov. 1. If it gets out of committee, the bill will need 60 votes to pass the Senate.
(Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM, Greenwire)

Take action

Call your senators and rep in Washington and tell them why it’s urgent to come up with an energy bill that has both strong CAFE standards and RES. The Congressional switchboard number is (202)224-3121. Also tell your senators you want to see Lieberman-Warner strengthened and passed before year’s end.

Tell Toyota to stop lobbying against a strong CAFE provision. They just want to keep selling outsize trucks in the U.S. If you are a Toyota owner or thinking of becoming one, let them know that. Go to http://www.truthaboutToyota.com.

News in brief

Coal-fired plant in Kansas is first to be rejected based on CO2
The Kansas Dept. of Health and Environment is the first government agency to turn down a permit for a coal-fired electric plant citing the risks posed by carbon dioxide. Referring to the recent Supreme Court decision defining CO2 as a pollutant, the agency rejected Sunflower Electric Power’s proposal for twin 700-megawatt plants. In doing so, the agency overruled its staff’s recommendation. The plants would have emitted 11 million metric tons of CO2 annually. Environmental groups fighting new coal plants around the country were heartened by the decision. (Sources: Greenwire, Washington Post)

Burning Amazon signals deforestation on the rise again
In August, more than 16,000 fires were spotted by satellite, burning their way across Brazil, mostly in the Amazon rainforest. Despite a government announcement the same month that Brazil had cut forest destruction 30% in the past few years, there are signs the economics of cattle ranching, illegal logging and soybean crops are too great a temptation to many in the area. Loggers say they will continue to cut down trees until the government gives them a viable economic alternative. (Source: The Guardian, UK)

World Bank sets up fund to pay countries to preserve forests
The World Bank, which has been criticized for funding some of the activities that lead to deforestation, announced last week it has set up a fund of $300 million to help stop the practice. The Bank will pay developing countries to protect and replant tropical forests. The Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, which will be part of post-Kyoto negotiations in Bali in December, will be tested on 3-5 countries. Deforestation is responsible for an estimated 20% of the greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. (Source: PlanetArk)

Wind project off Cape Cod denied permit by local board
The Cape Cod Commission last week denied the long-delayed Cape Wind project a permit to lay underwater transmission lines. The 130-turbine offshore wind farm proposed for Nantucket Sound would be in federal waters and a decision is expected from Washington next month. Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.), with family summer homes in the area, is a strong opponent. The state of Massachusetts approved the project last year after new Gov. Deval Patrick (D) replaced Mitt Romney (R), who opposed the plan. A state energy facilities board could override the local Cape Cod board. A statewide poll, taken this summer by the Patriot Ledger, found 84% favored the wind farm. Residents on Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard were 53% in favor. (Source: Greenwire, Boston.com, Patriot Ledger)

Step it Up – Plan to participate in climate activities Nov. 3
A day of national action against Global Warming is being planned by StepItUp, which held actions all over the country last April. Go on http://www.StepItUp07.org to see what’s planned for your area. In Chicago, there will be a Education and Leadership Forum at High Risk Gallery, 1113 Belmont Ave., from noon-2:30 p.m. If you plan to attend, e-mail Tony Fuller at Tony@chicagoclimateaction.com. Several speakers from environmental groups and the city will talk about what’s happening now, followed by a forum for legislators. The event is co-sponsored by the Sierra Club, Climate Justice Chicago and Chicago Global Warming Meet-up.

Xtreme weather watch

Atlanta’s drought-plagued water source, Lake Lanier, drops a foot each week and could dry up in 3-4 months. So Georgia's governor has sued the Army Corps of Engineers for releasing too much water, some of which flows to Alabama and Florida. And now he’s asked the President to intervene. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s governor has warned he may have to declare a state of emergency soon if voluntary conservation efforts aren’t enough. The Southeast is living through an extreme drought. And unlike the Southwest, the area is not accustomed to dealing drought. (Atlanta Business Chronicle, New York Times, Greenwire, PlanetArk)

China, Nepal, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam will send experts to a 3-month UN course on flood-protection next month. Participants will map risks of downpours, overflowing rivers and rising seas, expected to worsen because of climate change. They will learn about better dyke design, weather forecasting and flood warnings, focusing attention on large urban centers. Asia suffers more from flooding than other regions. (PlanetArk)

Many Central American countries were hit by torrential rains, deadly flooding and landslides in the past couple of weeks. In Nicaragua at least 4,000 were evacuated. A mudslide in Costa Rica buried 14. Haiti, most vulnerable because 90% of the forests have been cleared, was hardest hit, with a death toll of at least 31. (PlanetArk)

News extra

GHG growth in atmosphere at critical level now – scientist
Worldwide economic growth has pushed greenhouses gases in the atmosphere to a level not expected for another 10 years – about 455 ppm of CO2 equivalents, a well-known scientist and author of “The Weather Makers” told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. last week. The scientist, Tim Flannery, has reviewed the data going into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report due out in November. He said climate-changing gases CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons have already passed a critical level and relief will depend on finding ways to extract the gases out of the air. He urged the developed world to pay countries to avoid more deforestation. (Sources: AP, PlanetArk.com)

Pelosi will try for energy bill with a Conference committee
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) plans to reconcile the Senate and House energy bills without a formal Conference committee, sources told E&E Daily last week. Instead she will rely on party leaders to work out the differences. Other bills, such as ethics legislation, have been reconciled without a Conference. Democrats maintain they are following this strategy because Senate Republicans would block Conference action. And House GOP reps complain the bills don’t address domestic energy production, a reason President Bush gives for his threatened veto. Key provisions to be reconciled are the 35 mpg CAFE standards passed by the Senate and 15% renewables in the House version. (Source: E&E Daily)

Amazon deforestation could be stopped in 7 years, says NGO plan
Nine non-governmental organizations, including The Nature Conservancy, Greenpeace and World Wildlife Foundation, have announced a plan to achieve zero Amazon deforestation by 2015. The plan would require $550 million from Brazilian and international sources and would combine public policy and marketing to achieve annual targets. In 2006, 17% of the rainforest had been destroyed. Clearing trees for agriculture and ranching and other land-use changes have created 75% of Brazil’s GHG emissions. (Source: Environmental News Network)

Wetlands may be best way to get carbon out of atmosphere
Wetlands are a good carbon sink and could be a source of credits in a carbon-trading program, a University of Maryland scientist says. He is measuring the carbon in Chesapeake Bay wetlands planted four years ago and thinks he will find that the ability for salt marshes to attract CO2 exceeds that of trees and other plants. Maryland and 9 other Northeast states have agreed to start trading credits in 2009, in an effort to cut GHG 10%. At the local level, scientist Brian Needelman sees power companies buying credits to help restore marshes in the Chesapeake and revitalize wildlife there. But his findings could have much broader implications. (Sources: Baltsun.com, Greenwire)

Futuristic, eco-friendly cars unveiled for Tokyo Motor Show
A hydrogen soft-body van that rotates inside so it doesn’t have to go into reverse and a 1-person electric stroller-shaped vehicle called iReal that can run on a sidewalk. These are just two futuristic autos that will star at the Tokyo Motor Show Oct. 26-Nov. 11. Electric cars that can move sideways will be there too. While the vehicles are years from commercial viability, the innovation and commitment to greener vehicles is real, say automakers Honda (the van) and Toyota (iReal). (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

This winter will be warmer than usual in most of the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last week. Above-average temperatures are forecast for the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, northern Alaska and Hawaii, while the Northern Plains and Northwest will be cooler. Persistent drought will continue in the South, while Hawaii, the Northern Rockies and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will be wetter than usual, said NOAA. Overall temperatures are expected to be nearly 3% warmer than the 30-year norm, but slightly cooler than last winter. (PlanetArk, E&E News PM)

If you can stand the heat, but not the humidity, be concerned. As the Earth gets warmer, humidity rises, which in turn causes fiercer tropical rainstorms, according to a study just published in the journal Nature. Water vapor, which itself is a heat-trapping gas, increased 2.2% between 1976-2004, as the temperature rose 0.9 degrees F, the study says. Hot, tropical regions are likely to see the greatest rise in humidity. (PlanetArk, E&E News PM)

Climate change is increasing ‘natural’ disasters, and countries need to pay more attention to risk reduction, a UN official said last week. More than 250 million people a year are now affected by climate-related disasters, one-third more than a decade ago, according to international relief agencies. In 2006 Red Cross and Red Crescent responded to 482 disasters, up from 278 just 2 years earlier. Floods increased in that time to 121 from 54, and this year has already passed to 100 mark. (PlanetArk)

Some of the worst flooding in decades swept through north-central Vietnam last week in the aftermath of typhoon Lekima. At least 67 were dead or missing and floods and landslides damaged 100,000 homes and 37,000 acres of rice. This follows flooding in August that killed 80. Vietnam is hit by an average of 10 storms per year. (PlanetArk)

Will we get a Global Warming law anytime soon?
What are the chances we’ll see significant action on climate change in Washington this year? There certainly is an urgency, and a lot of activity. But will we see any results?

Legislation is now on two tracks in Congress.
* The Senate and House bills passed in the summer could be reconciled in Conference, giving us fuel-efficiency standards for autos and/or renewable energy standards for power plants, as well as other less-significant provisions.
* A new cap-and-trade bill could mandate economy-wide greenhouse-gas cuts and set up a credit-trading system.

President Bush doesn’t seem to like either one, and there are obstacles to even getting these bills to his desk. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who, as head of the Global Warming subcommittee, is championing a compromise cap-and-trade bill, said he thinks Congress will pass a limit on emissions with cap-and-trade by the end of 2008. He expects a floor debate in the Senate at the end of this year or early next year, though that gets him into the primary election season.

Senate Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), who has championed Global Warming legislation, said last week he doubts Bush would sign a mandatory cap-and-trade bill. Manik Roy, from the Pew Center for Global Climate Change, called it a “very hard political call.” Certainly, Bush’s international position now is for a voluntary – not mandatory – agreement. Would pressure from GOP candidates force him to change his stance before he leaves office? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Reconciling the Senate and House bills
House Energy Chair John Dingell and the rest of the Michigan delegation oppose the 35 mpg corporate fuel economy (CAFE) standard passed by the Senate, and there is now a new round of lobbying against it by the auto industry. So the likelihood of keeping both that and the 15% renewable electricity standards passed by the House intact is in question – though environmental groups are hard at work to make it happen. Both chambers would have to approve a reconciled bill (the Senate with 60 votes) and quite likely have to override a veto to make it law.

Appointment of a Conference Committee has been delayed as negotiations go on behind the scenes between party leaders. It’s not clear if differences can be hammered out or if Congress will simply move on to other legislation, says Roy, Pew’s legislative director.

Cap-and-trade bills
Meanwhile, there are many cap-and-trade bills or proposals in Congress. The ones getting the most attention right now are the Lieberman-(John)Warner (R-Va.) “compromise” proposal in the Senate and the Dingell-(Rick)Boucher (R-Va.) one just unveiled in the House.

Leiberman-Warner, still in draft form, calls for electric utilities, major industrial manufacturers and oil importers/refiners to limit their greenhouse gas emissions to 2005 levels by 2012. Then they must cut them 10% by 2020, and ultimately 70% by 2050. More than half the credits to be issued in a U.S. carbon market would be distributed free to power companies and manufacturers most affected by the new requirements.

One reason Lieberman thinks he can get 60 votes and avoid a filibuster is that industry is increasingly coming onboard for mandatory cap-and-trade because they want the law to be fashioned by this Congress, rather than risk a more Democratic one after 2008.

“They want the rules of the road to be set by a Congress with the current political make-up,” Lieberman told the World Environmental Center’s Sustainability Forum recently, “… and by an administration that is viewed as a friend of the fossil-fuel industries.”

It’s likely to be a long process though. The Lieberman-Warner bill will be marked up in their Global Warming subcommittee of Environment and Public Works, likely in October. If it's approved, the full EPW Committee under Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) will hold hearings and hear other ideas. Finally, if approved by committee, the bill will go to the floor for debate and amendments.

In addition to the emissions-reduction mandate from Environment and Public Works, technology and verification standards will come from Energy and Natural Resources, and the plan for credit allocations and revenue distribution from Senate Finance. So three different committees must OK parts of the package.

Offsets and other cost-control provisions are likely to be in the final bill as well. A Federal Reserve-type board would monitor trading and likely provide some kind of relief if prices get too high, according to the Lieberman-Warner draft bill. Some environmentalist groups strongly oppose any kind of “safety valve.” They also question whether Lieberman and Warner can get a 60-vote majority.

Dingell, Boucher unveil House bill
After floating a stiff carbon-tax alternative a few weeks ago, House Energy Chair Dingell and Energy and Air Subcommittee Chair Boucher last week proposed a cap-and-trade bill with mandatory reductions of 60-80% by 2050. It would cover greenhouses gases CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases.

A 22-page staff-written “White Paper” gives specifics, outlining the difficulties in determining who to regulate and how. A lot depends on how accurately measurements can be made and where to draw the line on tracking very small sources of emissions.

The two say that electricity generators can expect regulation, possibly with the same criteria as the EPA program for acid rain – all power plants of 25 megawatts or more, which would cover 99.6%.

On transportation, they prefer regulation “upstream,” on refiners and petroleum importers, not automobiles, but note there may need to be additional programs to promote auto efficiency. “Vehicles and fuels should be treated as a system,” they said. Seems to me that goes a long way to letting the auto industry off the hook.

Industrial emissions are harder to track, with several hundred thousand facilities, and may require decisions on which industries to regulate.

Additional white papers are expected in coming weeks, “to help focus debate.” They will cover emissions levels and a schedule for compliance, ways to control costs to the economy, carbon sequestration, offsets, the role of developing countries, and distribution of allowances. You can read the white papers at
http://energycommerce.house.gov/Climate_Change.
(Other sources: E&E Daily, Greenwire, The Daily Report, American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Physicians for Social Responsibility, and Pew Center for Global Climate Change.)

News in brief

Fires ravage Amazon rainforest; ranching, World Bank blamed
Large areas of Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia are thick with smoke as wildfires rage in the Amazon rainforest. The fires were first set by ranchers and farmers to “renovate” their pastures before the rains came. But an increase in cattle ranches and climate change have combined to create a tinderbox and thousands of fires are now out of control, racing across 2 million square kilometers of forest. Conservation groups blame the ranchers, as well as funding from the World Bank and Brazil’s Development Bank, which during the past three years have poured money into the area now choked with smoke. Thanks to the funding, new slaughterhouses and 4 million additional cattle have come into the area where the fires rage. (Source: The Independent UK)

Year-round Arctic sea ice declined 23% in past two years
We’ve read about the steady reduction in summer Arctic ice that will soon open up the area to summertime shipping. Now comes word from NASA that thicker, permanent all-year ice has also declined a dramatic 23% since 2005. The rare loss of permanent ice contributed to the lowest level of Arctic ice in September since records began in 1979 – 39% below average – and a likely decline of 50% since 1950. Warmer temperatures and unusual polar wind patterns are blamed. (Source: E&E News PM)

EPA should regulate CO2 from shipping, petitioners say
Earthjustice and a coalition on environmental groups filed a petition last week asking the EPA to regulate shipping emissions under the April Supreme Court decision putting greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. Jerry Brown, Attorney General of California, has filed a second petition on behalf of his state. Marine vessels – both cargo and cruise ships – contribute at least 3% of GHG and the amount has grown over the past few decades. The petition asks the EPA to require increased efficiency and cleaner fuels, and cover all cargo vessels entering U.S. waters. About 90% of trade is conducted by ship. (Sources: Environmental News Network, The Times UK)

China, biggest light bulb producer, to phase out incandescents
China, which produces 70% of the world’s light bulbs, will phase out incandescent bulbs by 2017, according to an agreement with the Global Environment Facility, which will supply $25 million as part of its effort to rid the world of the power-guzzling bulbs. China is the first developing nation to make such a pledge. GEF says the action could eliminate 500 million tons of carbon dioxide. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

More than 30 U.S. cities had record heat Monday, including New York (87) and Washington, D.C. (91). On Sunday, more than 70 cities set record highs for that date. Detroit (90) and Indianapolis (91) both were in the 90s later in the year than at any time since records began in the 1870s. (USA Today)

Heat and humidity stopped the Chicago Marathon in mid-stream Sunday, when the temperature reached 88 by 11:30 a.m. and race organizers cancelled out of concern for runners’ safety. One runner died from a heart condition, several others were still critical Monday, 49 went to the hospital and 250 were treated on-site. Temperatures were well above the average 72 degrees for Oct. 7 and runners complained about insufficient water. The previous record for the marathon was 84 in 1979. (AP, ChicagoTribune.com, Chicago Sun-Times)

Greece had its hottest summer in 50 years. The country suffered through an unprecedented three heat waves, with the one in June bringing 115-degree F temperatures to Athens. Average maximum temperatures for June-August were the highest in a half-century. The third heat wave contributed to widespread and disastrous forest fires. (Kathimerini Newspaper in Greece)

Take action

Tell your reps we need a Conference bill with CAFE standards, 15% renewables and a transfer of subsidies from oil to clean energy. Go to http://action.lcv.org/campaign/october_energy_alertand send a message today.

Tell Congress to pass legislation to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Go to Environmental Defense at http://environmentaldefense.org and click on Operation Climate Vote to send an e-mail expressing the urgency of getting substantial climate legislation to the floor by the end of the year.

News extra

Melting in Greenland speeds up; Arctic ice much thinner
This summer’s melt in Greenland was 150% above average, according to NASA. The amount of snow that melted this year could cover the U.S. twice over, according to the Geophysical Union’s Eos newspaper. Especially startling was the melting above 1.2 miles in altitude, with the fastest thaw in two decades. If all the ice in Greenland were to melt, it could raise sea levels 20 feet. In related news, large tracts of Arctic ice are now just 1 meter (3 feet) thick, according to a Norwegian survey. In 2001 the same areas were 2 meters (6 feet) thick. (Sources: Greenwire, NASA.gov, PlanetArk)

Chicago adds hybrids, plans bike drop-off program like in Paris
Chicago is making plans to increase its fleet of hybrids and start a program of bike drop-offs like the one that’s been popular in Paris. The city will replace old Crown Victorias with 300 new Toyota hybrids, adding to the 202 hybrids it now has. The bike program likely will be free for up to 30 minutes and $1.50 per half-hour after that. (Chicago Sun-Times)

British to turn off inefficient incandescent light bulbs
Britain will cut an estimated 5 million metric tons of greenhouse gases by 2012 by eliminating incandescent light bulbs. The phase-out begins next year through voluntary agreements with manufactures, retailers and electric companies. European Union competition laws require that the plan be voluntary. (Source: E&E News PM)

Americans see dismal record here on Global Warming curbs
People in the U.S. want leaders to move boldly to cut greenhouse gases, but only 1 in 5 approve of how President Bush, the Congress and private industry are handling the problem, a new poll shows. Only 1 in 10 think there has been strong public action in the past year, according to the Associate Press-Stanford University poll taken in late September. More Democrats and Independents disapprove of Bush’s performance, while Republicans are more likely to think Bush and business have caused little harm. But anxiety about the environment exists across party lines, with 80% saying Global Warming is already under way. (Source: AP)

BBC poll shows worldwide support for bold steps on emissions
In another, worldwide, poll by BBC, 90% said Global Warming should be curbed. BBC and the University of Maryland questioned 22,000 people in 21 countries this summer and found 79% think human activity is a significant cause of climate change. And 65% said major steps should be taken very soon. While 68% of Chinese said poor countries should cut emissions too, only 36% in India did. Pollsters determined there is a relationship to the amount of publicity given to the issue, with 36% of Indians surveyed saying they have heard little or nothing about Global Warming. Poll results were released last week. (Sources: BBC, Greenwire)

Bush Summit seen by some attendees and producing little
The Bush summit for major polluting countries last week accomplished little, according to several delegates. John Ashton from the U.K. told the New York Times the voluntary measures called for by President Bush would be ineffective in curbing Global Warming. Advanced technology, also touted by Bush, is good but needs government commitment and investment, he added. Everton Vargas from Brazil complained that “the whole agenda was set by the American government [and they] didn’t bring any new ideas.” The German Environment Minister said he spent 2 days talking with Democratic Congressional leaders, with an eye toward a post-Bush future. There was little applause for the president’s 15-minute speech, except among U.S. Cabinet and other Administration officials. The international community will next meet in Bali in December to discuss what happens when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. (Sources: New York Times, Greenwire)

FP&L pledges massive solar plant at Clinton Initiative meeting
Florida Power & Light announced plans for a $1.5 billion solar plant that will reduce CO2 emissions by 2 million metric tons over the next 5 years. This was just one of the pledges to fight Global Warming at the Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting last week in New York. Others included:
• 1Sky and a coalition will raise $50 million to push for U.S. goals and policies to match those of the European Union, which is committed to cutting GHG by 20% (from 1990 levels).
• Coca-Cola will spend $13.5 million to work with local farmers and non-profits on reforestation in Brazil.
• A group of utilities said they would eliminate 20 million tons of GHG a year through increased efficiency. Included are Duke Energy, Consolidated Edison, Edison International, Great Plains Energy, Pepco, PNM, Sierra Pacific and Xcel Energy.
• Standard Chartered Bank will underwrite $4 million to $5 million in debt for clean energy projects in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. (Sources: PlanetArk, E&E News PM, Greenwire)

Transportation Dept. lobbies again California EPA waiver
Rep. Henry Waxman’s (D-Calif.) investigation of Administration efforts to block California’s tailpipe-emissions law, has turned up e-mails showing Transportation Secretary Mary Peters, with White House approval, launched a lobbying campaign among governors and House members to stop the EPA from granting the state a waiver to set its own standards. DOT was working with the Michigan delegation, the documents show, because the auto industry strongly opposes the effort by California – and 12 other states – to cut auto emissions 30% by 2016. California, which has waited nearly two years to implement its law, asked for the waiver from EPA under the Clean Air Act. Other states are watching with interest because it will affect their ability to implement their laws. Meanwhile, 89 legislators wrote the EPA that a recent Vermont court ruling on vehicle emissions should clear the way for the EPA to grant the waiver. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has threatened to sue if the EPA doesn’t grant the waiver. (Sources: PlanetArk, San Francisco Chronicle, E&E News PM, E&E Daily)



Xtreme Weather Watch

Torrential rains and floods have swept through East and West Africa in recent weeks, destroying thousands of acres of farmland, and affecting a million people from Ethiopia to Senegal. Northern Ghana, the food basket of that nation, suffered unprecedented rains, causing 300,000 to flee their homes. (Reuters)

Uganda is reeling from the heaviest rains in 35 years, as floods affected hundreds of thousands and swept away 30 bridges, hampering relief work. Lack of drinking water and cases of diarrhea and malaria have overwhelmed medical workers. The UN’s World Food Program is calling for $65 million to feed 1.7 million facing shortages. (PlanetArk)

Extreme drought in Australia is cutting grain crops by 30% or more, causing a serious threat to the country’s important beef industry. Many feedlots that fatten cattle before export have had to be shut down. Australia has been the No. 1 beef exporter by value and No. 2 by volume. (PlanetArk)

‘Cap-and-trade’ is all the buzz; it's worth $billions
This fall, Congress will tackle a bill to cap greenhouse gas emissions. Most likely trading carbon credits will be part of the plan, as an incentive to business.

Cap-and-trade, simply put, is a system whereby the government caps, or sets restrictions on, overall emissions and then issues allowances, or “credits,” to companies that emit greenhouse gases. Companies that have trouble reaching their target can buy more credits and up their allowance. Those able to come in under their target can sell their excess credits and make money. All this is done on a carbon market worth billions.

Cap-and-trade has a history of success here cutting sulfur dioxide, which causes acid rain. It’s also being used by the European Union to meet its Kyoto goals. EU distributes allowances to the individual countries that can then be traded among them through an exchange.

Under Kyoto, the United Nations runs a program called the Clean Development Mechanism, in which rich countries can get credits by investing in clean-tech projects in developing countries. A number of other cap-and-trade programs have been set up in recent years, in the Northeast for example. Western states are looking to do the same thing.

Trade vs. tax
There is money to be made in trading carbon credits and it’s much more palatable in a capitalistic society than a politically unpopular “carbon tax.” The tax, where emitters pay by the ton, would guarantee money to reinvest in clean energy. Cap-and-trade, however, guarantees reduced emissions. And it is a market approach that lets those who can cut back most easily and cheaply do so, at the least cost to the economy.

Cap-and-trade is more flexible, gives businesses some control, and can be linked to other systems around the world. The EU plans to link its market to the UN’s in November. South Korea expects to have a carbon market by the end of the year, Canada may introduce one, and a voluntary Australian plan just started up.

Allocations: free or auctioned
How the credits are allocated is the most complicated part of the equation, and the one that will be most difficult to negotiate. They can either be auctioned or given away free, or some combination of the two.

Quite likely an American system will involve a combination of free and auctioned credits, with more auctioned as time goes on. In an auction, proceeds go to fund new cleaner technology, efficiency and adaptation. That’s an idea that appeals to environmentalists and economists alike.

If they’re given free, there will be a tug-of-war over whether most of the credits should go to big polluters, who have to change the most at considerable cost, or to reward companies that have already made a shift to cleaner technologies and more efficiency. One reason so many corporations are advocating cap-and-trade is they want to have input into how credits are distributed.

Corporations, such as those in the U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), agree that emissions should be cut by 60-80% by 2050 and that cap-and-trade should be phased in. But they disagree vehemently about how to distribute the credits. Utilities with high-polluting coal plants, like Duke Energy, favor one tack, while those more reliant on cleaner natural gas and nuclear, like Florida Power and Light, favor the other.

Problems with the EU’s giveaway
Giving away all the credits can cause problems, if the European Union’s experience is any guide. The EU’s cap-and-trade system, set up three years ago to help its countries meet their 5-6% reductions under Kyoto, has not been very successful so far. In fact, overall emissions have increased 1-1½%. It turns out that some companies overestimated their baseline emissions so allowances were set too high. Another problem was that many utilities are charging their customers as if they’d had to pay for the credits and reaped windfall profits in the billions of dollars a year.

For Phase 2, beginning next year, EU plans to auction more of the credits, set the caps lower, and monitor companies more carefully. We can learn from their experience.

Big money involved
Carbon trading is rapidly becoming big finance, involving billions of dollars. Europe’s market is worth $24 billion. Voluntary markets, including the Chicago Climate Exchange, tripled last year and are worth nearly $100 million. NYMEX is now eyeing carbon trading. “Carbon will be the world’s biggest commodity market,” says Barclay Capital’s Louis Renshaw. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have rapidly expanded their carbon business, with MS setting up a carbon bank in August.

New York, which handled credits for acid rain, lost its lead when the U.S. pulled out of Kyoto. Now London has cornered the market, with more CO2 traded there than in any other city in the world. They not only trade allowances, but also invest in clean-energy projects that generate more credits.

Different approaches in Congress
A number of bills to curb greenhouse gases were introduced this spring and summer, most of them including cap-and-trade. The proposals will be debated long and hard before any agreement can be reached.
* Sanders-Boxer would permit but not required cap-and-trade. The EPA would determine allocations, with allowances geared toward those most affected by Global Warming and its policies.
* McCain-Lieberman says the EPA would determine allocations, considering consumer impact, competitiveness, and other factors.
* Kerry-Snowe lets the president and EPA decide about allocations.
* Feinstein-Carper says a steadily increasing amount would be auctioned, starting with 15% in 2011, up to 100% in 2036. It applies primarily to power plants and rewards gas, nuclear and more efficient coal plants.
* Bingaman-Specter says for the first 5 years the majority of credits would be free, with 24% auctioned, 9% going to states, 8% in incentives for carbon capture, 5% to agriculture, and 1% rewarding early actions.
* Lieberman-Warner, proposed at the end of the last session as a compromise bill, says most credits would be free, but in 2012 about one-fourth would be auctioned to those seeking additional discharge.
* Waxman, in the House, calls for the president to distribute allowances, with the Congress ratifying or modifying the plan. Any auction proceeds would fund a Climate Reinvestment Fund.

So you can see there are many variations to be sorted out, and you can bet there’ll be heavy lobbying by industry. But cap-and-trade advocates are starting to count their votes in Washington and say they are within reach of a veto-proof vote in the House and the 60 votes needed in the Senate.

Note: The idea of this president or EPA making the decisions about allocation is scary, given the amount of foot-dragging we’ve seen on anything environmental (they must not have any toenails left). Legislation will have to be very clear in its instructions and set parameters for whomever will make those decisions and be responsible for seeing they are carried out.
(Sources: Miami Herald, Pew Center for Global Climate Change, Greenwire, Reuters PlanetArk.com, The Guardian, NY Times)


News in brief

Federal park, forest managers not prepared for Global Warming
U.S. agencies responsible for managing parks, forests, oceans and monuments are not prepared to deal with climate change, a Government Accountability Office report revealed last week. Managers have neither the scientific information nor the guidance from above to include climate change in their decisions, though they were instructed by a 2001 law to do so, said the report. There is increased evidence of Global Warming on the 600 million acres of public lands and 150,000 square miles of public waters, from the disappearing glaciers at Glacier National Park to rising seas in the Florida Keys, the report said. (Source: Greenwire)

U.S. Forest Service disgruntled; is it going to pot?
Forest Service employees are upset and confused about their mission, as the increasing number wild fires takes more of their time and half of their budget. Employees, surveyed anonymously, said they spend too much time fighting fires and not enough managing forests. They also were unhappy with their political leadership in Washington. Meanwhile Agriculture Undersecretary Mark Rey has a clear idea of their main mission. “Illegal drug trafficking is the No. 1 priority,” he told a news conference in Fresno, saying Forest Service officials have declared war on pot farms in national forests. Ron Pugh, a Forest Service special agent, said the goal is to dismantle and disrupt “the widespread illegal occupation of national forests by armed foreign nationals” who grow marijuana. Last year more than 260 pot farms were found on public lands in California. (Sources: Greenwire, Land Letter)

‘Erin go hot’: Ireland getting warmer twice as fast as others
During the past three decades, Ireland’s temperature has risen twice as fast as the world average, that country’s EPA said last week. Temperatures have risen 0.76 degrees F per decade for the past 30 years, bringing more floods and heat waves. Six of the 10 hottest years in Ireland’s history have occurred since 1990. Over the next 20 years, rain is predicted to be stronger and more frequent, but after that, the country could become dryer, putting pressure on water supplies. (Source: Greenwire)

Heart attacks will increase because of Global Warming
An increase in global temperatures will likely cause more cardiovascular disease, several doctors at the European Society of Cardiologists annual meeting said last week. High temperatures can cause hardening of the heart’s arteries, said Johns Hopkins Chief of Cardiology Gordon Tomaselli. Another doctor reported that France had 15,000 more heart attacks than usual during the severe heat wave of 2003 that killed 35,000 in Europe. A Swedish doctor predicted more heart disease as temperatures rise a few degrees over the next 40 years. (Source: Greenwire)

APEC biz leaders call for carbon pricing, cite tipping point
Business leaders at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Australia last week, called for their governments to put a price on carbon, saying businesses need an incentive to reduce emissions. “At the moment, you can pollute for nothing,” said Mark Johnson, who heads APEC’s Business Advisory Council. “Most of us believe we have reached a tipping point in science, and Global Warming is actually happening.” He also asked for governments to provide more incentives for investment in renewable energy sources. (Source: Greenwire)

APEC sets ‘aspirational' goal that will increase, not cut, GHG
Meanwhile, the APEC countries, were set to agree this weekend to a declaration including an “aspirational” target of cutting GHG emissions “intensity” 25% by 2030 and to yield to the United Nations as the proper framework for a post-Kyoto international agreement. “Intensity” is the operational word here, though. It ties GHG cuts to the growth of the economy and since the economy in Asia is likely to grow much more than 25%, there actually will be an increase in emissions, not a reduction. APEC also agreed wealthy countries have a greater responsibility to make reductions. (Sources: Greenwire, Agence France-Presse, BBC)


Xtreme weather watch

*This August was the hottest in the U.S. Southeast since records began in 1895. Average temperature was 82.3. The past few summers in the Southeast have been warmer than usual, with this summer in the top 10. (NY Times)

*A week-long heat wave in triple digits left 25 dead in Southern California last weekend. About 20,000 were without electricity. Temperatures rose to 111 in Simi Valley and 112 in parts of LA. Last year a two-week heat wave left 140 dead. (AP, NY Times)

*Category 5 Hurricane Felix struck land near the Nicaragua-Honduras border early last week, the first time in recorded history that two Category 5 storms made landfall in the same season. It was not far behind Dean, which hit Yucatan. Another record was broken when a second hurricane, Henrietta, hit Baha on the same day. (AP)


Take action

Don’t let this summer’s achievement in Washington die. Join the Union of Concerned Scientists in telling your Senators and Rep a new energy bill that emerges from Conference must contain 35 mpg fuel economy and a 15% renewable electricity standard. Go to http://ucsaction.org, scroll down and click on Hold Strong on Clean Energy Bill 9/7/07.

If you haven’t done so already, sign up today at http://www.greendimes.com to get rid of all those unwanted catalogs in your mailbox. I did so several months ago and I can tell you IT WORKS! Save trees and all the energy involved manufacturing and sending the catalogs you never even look at. Green Dimes will plant trees for you too.


Q&A

Reader Barb of Colorado asks: Is it true cattle cause as much Global Warming as gas and oil?
Earthling Angst answers: It’s true that livestock emit more greenhouse gas than automobiles. A report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization says 65% of the nitrous oxide (a GHG) caused by human activity comes from livestock manure. And methane, a potent GHG, is emitted when they pass gas. The report recommends a change in diet to reduce the emissions. (Source: E&E News PM)

News extra

1. Temps likely to rise 3-7 degrees F this century, says UN
Governments need to act quickly to curb Global Warming, a draft UN report says. And it's quite likely temperatures will exceed the European Union target of 3.6 degrees F above pre-industrial levels. The report says global average temperatures will go up 3-7 degrees F, and oceans will continue to rise for centuries to come. Sea levels will go up 7-23 inches this century; and even if greenhouse gases are stabilized, will eventually rise 1.3-12 feet as ocean water absorbs warmth and expands, the report says. This does not take into account any melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This summary of the three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports earlier this year is due for release in Spain Nov. 17. A draft was obtained last week by Reuters. Options to reduce the damage are listed as efficiency, more renewables, carbon markets and carbon sequestration at coal-fired plants. (Source: Reuters PlanetArk.com)

2. Rich countries disagree about GHG goals for 2020
Rich countries should take the lead in cutting greenhouse gases, delegates urged at a climate change meeting in Vienna last week. But the developed countries were divided on whether they should seek cuts of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020. The European Union said yes, but Canada, Japan, Sweden, New Zealand and Russia called the cuts too demanding, following on the heels of the Kyoto requirement for 5% below 1990 by 2012. The U.S. was not in the discussion because it didn’t sign on to Kyoto. Also at the Vienna meeting, attended by 1,000 delegates from 135 countries, a UN report said energy efficiency – in buildings, cars and power plants – is the best way to cut GHG in the short run. (Source: PlanetArk.com)

3. Ozone hole opens up early this year, offers GHG warning
While the ozone hole over Antarctic isn’t caused by Global Warming, it shows us that stopping harmful emissions doesn’t get results for a long time. Ozone-depleting substances were banned by the Montreal Protocol in 1989. But the hole is still getting bigger. It appeared early this year and will grow until October, the World Meteorological Organization said last week, possibly surpassing its record size in 2006. By 2050, the ozone layer, which protects us from damaging ultraviolet rays, should be back to pre-1980s levels. The hole likely won’t be gone until 2065, WMO said. Because CO2, the main cause of Global Warming, stays in the atmosphere for 100 years, and methane even longer, we'll be facing similar problems with climate change in the future. (Gee, we cut GHG 50% in 2030. Why is it still getting hotter?) (Source: Reuters)

4. Rice threatened by climate change; why should we care?
Half the world’s 6.6 billion people rely on rice for nourishment, so a group of international scientists in the Philippines are racing the clock to climate-proof the essential food crop. Global Warming already is causing droughts, intrusion of seawater and higher nighttime temperatures (up 1.5 degrees C from 1978 to 2003). Rice yields drop about 10% for each degree, according to the International Rice Research Institute. The future promises shifting rain patterns, so the scientists are working to breed rice that can be grown on dry land as well as handle hotter temperatures. Rising seas also are an “ominous threat,” according to IRRI. About half the rice is grown in India and China. (Sources: Agence France-Presse, truthout.com, E&E News PM)

5. Malaysia criticizes U.S., Australia climate agenda for APEC
Saying Australia and the United States lack the credentials to lead a discussion on Global Warming, Malaysia objected to the two countries’ desire to put climate change high on the agenda at next week’s Asia-Pacific meeting in Sydney. The two are the only industrial nations not to sign the Kyoto Protocol. Plans have been afoot to have the Asia Pacific Economic Council agree next week on voluntary, not binding curbs on greenhouse gases, as a follow-up to Kyoto. Malaysia said they should wait to meet with the international community in the proper forum to discuss ways to manage climate change. (Source: PlanetArk.com)

6. New Texas plant will offset carbon and mercury emissions
In a first, a power company has agreed to offset its emissions. NuCoastal Power Corp. said its new 303-megawatt plant in Port Comfort, Texas, will offset its mercury and carbon emissions by paying for such things as weatherization for low-income people and wind turbine production. In an agreement to end environmental opposition, the company also said it would install carbon-sequestration technology when it becomes available. (Source: E&E News PM)


Xtreme weather watch
Scientists predict: Global Warming will result in more extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires.

* Record rains pour on Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma
Up to a foot of rain fell on central Iowa Aug. 24, as flooding continued to damage large parts of the Midwest. Meanwhile, summer storms have poured record rains on Texas and parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Corpus Cristi, Texas, recorded 33 inches by mid-August, 15 inches more than normal.
* Australian food-growers face disaster, as drought continues
After a brief respite in May and June, when rains came, Australia’s “food bowl,” the Murray-Darling river basin, is facing crop ruin with little or no irrigation, as a several-year drought continues. In good times the area provides half the country’s fruit and cereal grains and $18 billion (U.S.) in imports. On Thursday, area farmers said they were 10 days from ruin if it doesn’t rain.
* Indians eat raw flour to survive as monsoon rains rage
Nearly 2,000 have died in eastern India and Bangladesh from drowning, disease, collapsed houses and snakebites, as incessant and unusually heavy rains continue to cause flooding. Another 4,000 are sick from polluted water and contaminated food. Unable to cook, some in India are eating raw flour soaked in water. The especially bad monsoon flood season this year is blamed by some on climate change.
* Sudan has worst flooding in memory, surpassing 1988
Aid has been slow in coming to the hundreds of thousands of victims of Sudan flooding. Nearly 74,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed and more than 11,000 cattle have been lost. The flooding is worse than in 1988, when a million people had to flee their homes. Many say it’s the worst they can remember.
(Xtreme Weather Watch sources: PlanetArk.com, Greenwire)