Weekly angst

How much CO2 did the California fires release?
Picture the freeway in Los Angeles at morning rush hour, with rows and rows of cars making their long daily commute. Now picture the wildfires that hit Southern California last month. Which put the most carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?

According to a study published in the journal Carbon Balance and Management, the fires released about 8.7 million metric tons of CO2. That’s equal to all the fossil fuels burned in the state of California in a week. The estimate for the entire U.S. was 293 million tons per year from 2002-2006, or 4-6% of total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The study, by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado, had a margin of error of 50%, because it’s so hard to know exactly how much carbon was in the trees and plants and what percent of them burned.

Other estimates varied wildly. The Forest Foundation, which advocates for active timber management, came in higher, estimating the amount of all greenhouse gases released – including methane and nitrous oxide – at 26.5 million tons, equivalent to 5 million cars. Other estimates were closer to the Colorado study. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) said less than 6 million tons of CO2, based on preliminary data. The U.S. Forest Service came in at 5-6 million tons. All used different models and different data, with a huge margin of error.

So clearly it’s an inexact science. With many more fires on the horizon (the fire season has lengthened by 78 days), we need to get a better handle on this.

Wildfire CO2 vs. fossil fuels
The Colorado researchers see a difference between emissions from fires and those from the burning of fossil fuels. The carbon from the fires, as part of a natural cycle, will eventually be absorbed by plants as they regenerate, they said. The carbon from fossil fuels, however, has been locked in the ground as oil and coal for millions of years and won’t be reabsorbed by the ecosystem.

But the ability of some forests to absorb enough CO2 is called into question by another new study, this one in the journal Nature. University of Wisconsin researcher Tom Gower measured boreal forests in Manitoba, Canada, and found they went from weak carbon “sinks” to weak carbon sources in recent decades, mainly because of fires. In addition to the trees that burn, exposed soil hit by sunlight speeds decomposition, releasing more carbon, he said.

There may already be a feedback loop in the boreal forests, in northern latitudes such as the upper parts of Canada, Alaska, Siberia, Scandinavia and China, Gower said. That means the more GHG emissions, the warmer and dryer it gets, the more fires there are, the more GHG are released … ad infinitum. And maybe it doesn’t all get reabsorbed.

Need better understanding
Clearly we need better measurements of how much carbon forests store and release, and under what conditions, so we can maximize their role as sinks to mitigate Global Warming.

The California Air Resources Board is moving in that direction. In late October it passed the nation’s first standards for forest-generated carbon emissions. The Forest Protocols, which took 4 years to develop, will help quantify emission reductions for forests based on management and planting. The agency thinks California forests have the potential to take 10 million tons out of the air by 2020.

It’s time for other states – and nations – to follow suit. Especially if carbon offsets are going to be offered for planting or stopping destruction of trees. We need to know better how this all works.
(Sources: Globeandmail.com, E&E Daily, PlanetArk, Greenwire, Land Letter)

Congressional round-up

Senate votes to increase funds for Amtrak expansion
The Senate last week approved a measure to increase Amtrak funding from $1.3 billion a year to nearly $2 billion annually, for the next 6 years. While most is for operations, $1.4 billion will be available for states to expand or start new rail service as an alternative to automobile or air travel. The House is expected to act on a similar bill next year. (Source: Greenwire)

GOP Energy Action Team wants more coal, oil, gas and nuclear
Some House Republican leaders have formed an action team to speak out against the energy bill negotiations now in progress, criticizing the individual bills passed by the House and Senate as falling short on coal-to-liquid, oil, gas, nuclear power and offshore drilling. Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas) has asked Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) to try to influence the negotiations through House Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.). (Source: E&E News PM)

Cap-and-trade bill OK’d in subcommittee by 4-3 vote
After turning back amendments to strengthen it, the Global Warming Subcommittee narrowly approved the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill (S. 2191) last week. Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) was the only Republican to vote for the bill, by proxy because of complications from recent heart surgery. Independent Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who submitted the amendments, voted against it. Subcommittee Chair Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) said the amendments would have made the carefully crafted compromise fall apart. The bill now moves on to the full Environment Committee for hearings starting Thursday. (Source: Greenwire)

House cap-and-trade version stalls behind energy negotiations
In contrast to the Senate, where cap-and-trade is moving ahead simultaneously with efforts to reconcile the two energy bills, the House won’t act until energy negotiations are over, said House Energy Chair Dingell and Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), who drafted the House bill. Earlier they said they’d consider the bill this fall, but now next year seems more likely. (Source: E&E Daily)

News in brief

Seas could rise 1 meter in next 50 years, some scientists say
Several climate scientists say seas could rise a meter (39 inches) in the next 50 years. Others agree they will rise that much, though it might take 100 years or even 150. And “there’s nothing we can do about it,” University of Victoria’s Andrew Weaver, a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, told Associated Press. Among those in danger from high water are Wall Street, Silicon Valley, major airports and interstates, and popular beaches in Texas and Florida. Maps at the University of Arizona show what will happen when melting ice sheets and glaciers, plus expanded warm sea water cause a rise of 1 meter, engulfing an estimated 25,000 square miles of U.S. land. Subway floods like those in NYC last summer, could become a regular event and storm surges will be more devastating. Expect a future debate on what is worth saving and at what cost, said Donald Boesch, a scientist at the University of Maryland. The change will be slow, though, allowing people to ignore it for some time. (Source: AP)

Corporations not living up to their greenhouse promises
A closer look at some companies that pledged a reduction in GHG reveals that many of them aren’t meeting their stated goals. Fed Ex, for example, said in 2003 it would buy 2,000 hybrid trucks a year, but 4 years later it has purchased fewer than 100. The company says hybrids cost 75% more. Aspen Skiing Co., despite high goals, gets only 1% of its power from hydro and solar. The person in charge of sustainability at Aspen told Business Week, “How do you really green your company? It’s f------ impossible.” And Nike, which slightly lowered its emissions lately, is up 50% since 1998, while Sony is up 17% in a year. (Source: Greenwire)

New company to provide charged batteries for electric cars
Shai Agassi has a plan to separate electric cars from their batteries, to make them more practical and cheaper than gasoline-powered cars. The software engineer, formerly with SAP AG, has started a company called Better Place. Automakers will furnish the cars, he will provide the batteries (which he sees as more like fuel). Better Place will set up a network of stations that will switch out drained batteries for recharged ones, for a subscription price. He thinks that will also enable drivers to use smaller batteries than carmakers now envision. (Source: Greenwire)

New York City eyes law to require recycling of plastic bags
A law was introduced in New York City Council last week to require stores of more than 5,000 square feet to provide in-store recycling of plastic bags. About 700 grocery stores would be affected, as well as big retail outlets like Home Depot and Target. The state of California passed a similar law in July, and San Francisco banned the use of plastic bags in supermarkets last spring. Americans use an estimated 84 billion plastic bags each year, which eats up 12 million barrels of oil. (Sources: PlanetArk, Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

An atypical La Niña weather pattern will bring more dryness to drought-stricken Australia this winter, rather than the rain it usually brings. Abnormally cool seas north of Australia and into the Indian Ocean have altered expected weather patterns associated with La Niña, said the UN’s World Meteorological Organization. WMO warned that La Niña could cause weather disruptions on a “planetary scale.” (PlanetArk, E&E News PM)

Hurricane Noel was the deadliest storm in the Atlantic this year, leaving at least 115 dead as it raged through the Caribbean. The storm poured a record 15 inches of rain on the Bahamas and 10-20 inches on treeless hillsides in Haiti, where 90% of the forests have been cut down for charcoal. In Cuba, a dam overflowed and damaged at least 2,000 home. (AP, PlanetArk)

Governors of drought-stricken Georgia, Alabama and Florida met with federal officials last week and reached a temporary agreement to cut the flow from Georgia’s Lake Lanier by 16%. Georgia is concerned the reservoir, the main source of Atlanta’s drinking water, will dry up in three months and wanted to cut back the flow by half. Alabama and Florida, on the other hand, worried the flow to them, if curtailed that much, would endanger the fishing industry and an electric power station. A permanent deal is sought by February, in a 20-year water dispute that has grown much more serious because of the drought. (E&E News PM)

Take action

Help put pressure on the EPA to grant California a waiver to regulate tailpipe emissions. Submit a question today, asking why they haven’t granted the waiver yet, at http://www.epa.gov/askepa. California has been waiting for nearly 2 years for the EPA to act. By stalling, the agency is keeping other states from regulating GHG from cars too. If you live in any of the following states, you need California to get its waiver so your state can implement the law it passed: Md., N.J., Conn., Mass., R.I., Vermont, Maine, Pa., Vt., Ore. and Wash. If you live in Ill., Utah, Ariz., N.M. or Fla., your state is considering a clean car act, but won’t be able to enforce it. Some of the questions submitted will be answered this Thursday in an online forum. Send a copy of your question to dfaulkner@nrdc.org who will monitor the forum to see if the EPA is avoiding questions about the waiver.