Will we get a Global Warming law anytime soon?
What are the chances we’ll see significant action on climate change in Washington this year? There certainly is an urgency, and a lot of activity. But will we see any results?

Legislation is now on two tracks in Congress.
* The Senate and House bills passed in the summer could be reconciled in Conference, giving us fuel-efficiency standards for autos and/or renewable energy standards for power plants, as well as other less-significant provisions.
* A new cap-and-trade bill could mandate economy-wide greenhouse-gas cuts and set up a credit-trading system.

President Bush doesn’t seem to like either one, and there are obstacles to even getting these bills to his desk. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who, as head of the Global Warming subcommittee, is championing a compromise cap-and-trade bill, said he thinks Congress will pass a limit on emissions with cap-and-trade by the end of 2008. He expects a floor debate in the Senate at the end of this year or early next year, though that gets him into the primary election season.

Senate Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), who has championed Global Warming legislation, said last week he doubts Bush would sign a mandatory cap-and-trade bill. Manik Roy, from the Pew Center for Global Climate Change, called it a “very hard political call.” Certainly, Bush’s international position now is for a voluntary – not mandatory – agreement. Would pressure from GOP candidates force him to change his stance before he leaves office? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Reconciling the Senate and House bills
House Energy Chair John Dingell and the rest of the Michigan delegation oppose the 35 mpg corporate fuel economy (CAFE) standard passed by the Senate, and there is now a new round of lobbying against it by the auto industry. So the likelihood of keeping both that and the 15% renewable electricity standards passed by the House intact is in question – though environmental groups are hard at work to make it happen. Both chambers would have to approve a reconciled bill (the Senate with 60 votes) and quite likely have to override a veto to make it law.

Appointment of a Conference Committee has been delayed as negotiations go on behind the scenes between party leaders. It’s not clear if differences can be hammered out or if Congress will simply move on to other legislation, says Roy, Pew’s legislative director.

Cap-and-trade bills
Meanwhile, there are many cap-and-trade bills or proposals in Congress. The ones getting the most attention right now are the Lieberman-(John)Warner (R-Va.) “compromise” proposal in the Senate and the Dingell-(Rick)Boucher (R-Va.) one just unveiled in the House.

Leiberman-Warner, still in draft form, calls for electric utilities, major industrial manufacturers and oil importers/refiners to limit their greenhouse gas emissions to 2005 levels by 2012. Then they must cut them 10% by 2020, and ultimately 70% by 2050. More than half the credits to be issued in a U.S. carbon market would be distributed free to power companies and manufacturers most affected by the new requirements.

One reason Lieberman thinks he can get 60 votes and avoid a filibuster is that industry is increasingly coming onboard for mandatory cap-and-trade because they want the law to be fashioned by this Congress, rather than risk a more Democratic one after 2008.

“They want the rules of the road to be set by a Congress with the current political make-up,” Lieberman told the World Environmental Center’s Sustainability Forum recently, “… and by an administration that is viewed as a friend of the fossil-fuel industries.”

It’s likely to be a long process though. The Lieberman-Warner bill will be marked up in their Global Warming subcommittee of Environment and Public Works, likely in October. If it's approved, the full EPW Committee under Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) will hold hearings and hear other ideas. Finally, if approved by committee, the bill will go to the floor for debate and amendments.

In addition to the emissions-reduction mandate from Environment and Public Works, technology and verification standards will come from Energy and Natural Resources, and the plan for credit allocations and revenue distribution from Senate Finance. So three different committees must OK parts of the package.

Offsets and other cost-control provisions are likely to be in the final bill as well. A Federal Reserve-type board would monitor trading and likely provide some kind of relief if prices get too high, according to the Lieberman-Warner draft bill. Some environmentalist groups strongly oppose any kind of “safety valve.” They also question whether Lieberman and Warner can get a 60-vote majority.

Dingell, Boucher unveil House bill
After floating a stiff carbon-tax alternative a few weeks ago, House Energy Chair Dingell and Energy and Air Subcommittee Chair Boucher last week proposed a cap-and-trade bill with mandatory reductions of 60-80% by 2050. It would cover greenhouses gases CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases.

A 22-page staff-written “White Paper” gives specifics, outlining the difficulties in determining who to regulate and how. A lot depends on how accurately measurements can be made and where to draw the line on tracking very small sources of emissions.

The two say that electricity generators can expect regulation, possibly with the same criteria as the EPA program for acid rain – all power plants of 25 megawatts or more, which would cover 99.6%.

On transportation, they prefer regulation “upstream,” on refiners and petroleum importers, not automobiles, but note there may need to be additional programs to promote auto efficiency. “Vehicles and fuels should be treated as a system,” they said. Seems to me that goes a long way to letting the auto industry off the hook.

Industrial emissions are harder to track, with several hundred thousand facilities, and may require decisions on which industries to regulate.

Additional white papers are expected in coming weeks, “to help focus debate.” They will cover emissions levels and a schedule for compliance, ways to control costs to the economy, carbon sequestration, offsets, the role of developing countries, and distribution of allowances. You can read the white papers at
http://energycommerce.house.gov/Climate_Change.
(Other sources: E&E Daily, Greenwire, The Daily Report, American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Physicians for Social Responsibility, and Pew Center for Global Climate Change.)

News in brief

Fires ravage Amazon rainforest; ranching, World Bank blamed
Large areas of Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia are thick with smoke as wildfires rage in the Amazon rainforest. The fires were first set by ranchers and farmers to “renovate” their pastures before the rains came. But an increase in cattle ranches and climate change have combined to create a tinderbox and thousands of fires are now out of control, racing across 2 million square kilometers of forest. Conservation groups blame the ranchers, as well as funding from the World Bank and Brazil’s Development Bank, which during the past three years have poured money into the area now choked with smoke. Thanks to the funding, new slaughterhouses and 4 million additional cattle have come into the area where the fires rage. (Source: The Independent UK)

Year-round Arctic sea ice declined 23% in past two years
We’ve read about the steady reduction in summer Arctic ice that will soon open up the area to summertime shipping. Now comes word from NASA that thicker, permanent all-year ice has also declined a dramatic 23% since 2005. The rare loss of permanent ice contributed to the lowest level of Arctic ice in September since records began in 1979 – 39% below average – and a likely decline of 50% since 1950. Warmer temperatures and unusual polar wind patterns are blamed. (Source: E&E News PM)

EPA should regulate CO2 from shipping, petitioners say
Earthjustice and a coalition on environmental groups filed a petition last week asking the EPA to regulate shipping emissions under the April Supreme Court decision putting greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. Jerry Brown, Attorney General of California, has filed a second petition on behalf of his state. Marine vessels – both cargo and cruise ships – contribute at least 3% of GHG and the amount has grown over the past few decades. The petition asks the EPA to require increased efficiency and cleaner fuels, and cover all cargo vessels entering U.S. waters. About 90% of trade is conducted by ship. (Sources: Environmental News Network, The Times UK)

China, biggest light bulb producer, to phase out incandescents
China, which produces 70% of the world’s light bulbs, will phase out incandescent bulbs by 2017, according to an agreement with the Global Environment Facility, which will supply $25 million as part of its effort to rid the world of the power-guzzling bulbs. China is the first developing nation to make such a pledge. GEF says the action could eliminate 500 million tons of carbon dioxide. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

More than 30 U.S. cities had record heat Monday, including New York (87) and Washington, D.C. (91). On Sunday, more than 70 cities set record highs for that date. Detroit (90) and Indianapolis (91) both were in the 90s later in the year than at any time since records began in the 1870s. (USA Today)

Heat and humidity stopped the Chicago Marathon in mid-stream Sunday, when the temperature reached 88 by 11:30 a.m. and race organizers cancelled out of concern for runners’ safety. One runner died from a heart condition, several others were still critical Monday, 49 went to the hospital and 250 were treated on-site. Temperatures were well above the average 72 degrees for Oct. 7 and runners complained about insufficient water. The previous record for the marathon was 84 in 1979. (AP, ChicagoTribune.com, Chicago Sun-Times)

Greece had its hottest summer in 50 years. The country suffered through an unprecedented three heat waves, with the one in June bringing 115-degree F temperatures to Athens. Average maximum temperatures for June-August were the highest in a half-century. The third heat wave contributed to widespread and disastrous forest fires. (Kathimerini Newspaper in Greece)

Take action

Tell your reps we need a Conference bill with CAFE standards, 15% renewables and a transfer of subsidies from oil to clean energy. Go to http://action.lcv.org/campaign/october_energy_alertand send a message today.

Tell Congress to pass legislation to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Go to Environmental Defense at http://environmentaldefense.org and click on Operation Climate Vote to send an e-mail expressing the urgency of getting substantial climate legislation to the floor by the end of the year.