Is nuclear ‘renaissance’ a solution to Global Warming?
Global Warming and pressure to meet Kyoto goals have spurred the world to seek carbon-free energy sources. Some say any solution must have nuclear in the mix. So after a 20-year hiatus in most countries following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, nuclear energy seems to be back on the table.

Worldwide, 30 plants are under construction, while 74 are planned and 182 proposed. In the U.S., where 20% of the energy now comes from nukes, the race is on to build the first reactor in decades. The Nuclear Energy Institute expects 17 new reactors to start construction here in the next 6 years.

Just days before an earthquake in Japan damaged the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, the Japanese government had announced a public-private partnership to develop next-generation nuclear reactors that would produce 40% less radioactive waste.

Japan gets nearly a third of its power from nukes and needs to replace 20 aging reactors by 2030. Worldwide, there are 437 reactors that will soon need replacing.

On top of that, energy demand is expected to rise about 50% in the next 25 years. So the dilemma is three-fold.
• What to do about replacing aging nuclear plants?
• Should more nuclear be used to replace carbon-spewing coal plants?
• And how can we meet additional energy needs without increasing CO2 emissions?

Is nuclear energy worth the risk of accidents, terrorism and disposal problems because it is carbon-free?

Pro-nuclear
Some countries say it is. Those who support nuclear energy says it’s much cleaner than coal and that the new plants will be safer and more efficient.

Top on the list is France, which gets 78% of its power from nukes and has an accident-free record at its 59 plants. India – with new support from the U.S. government – plans to start a huge 10,000-megawatt plant next year. And Australia, with its large uranium reserves, will begin building reactors.

Vietnam expects to finish the first of 4 reactors in 2015. Indonesia, despite concerns about earthquakes (there was one last week), plans for the first of 4-6 plants to come online in 2016.

Europe now gets 32% of its energy from nuclear and in April the G7 threw its support behind nukes as one solution to Global Warming.

And in the wake of Iran’s quest for nuclear energy, about a dozen Middle East countries – including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – have asked the International Atomic Energy Agency to help them start nuclear programs. Some fear this could start a nuclear-arms race in the area.

Russia recently began construction on the first of at least 7 floating nuclear power plants. China, which gets only 2% of its energy from its 11 reactors, has 4 more under construction, 23 in the planning stage and 54 proposed. Finland is building plants, and the Dutch recently reversed a decision to phase out their plants.

In the U.S., where nuclear is controversial, the 2005 Energy Policy Act offered billions in tax incentives and loan guarantees to spur nuclear development. Vice President Cheney’s Energy Task Force called for 1,300-1,900 new power plants, many of them nuclear. Several states provide significant power from nukes, including Connecticut (45%) and Virginia (30%). The U.S. has 103 reactors and all will need replacing by mid-century.

Anti-nuclear
Arguments against nuclear energy include the threat of weapons proliferation and terrorist attacks, disposal of the radioactive waste, and cost – about $4 billion per plant. Safety violations and lack of evacuation plans at existing plants are a concern, as are comments from guards about their inability to defend a plant against attack. The Union of Concerned Scientists has recorded 51 cases at 41 plants where reactors had to be shut down for more than a year.

Waste storage is a critical issue. The Nevada permanent storage site at Yucca Mountain has been put on hold with Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) as majority leader, and likely won’t be usable until at least 2017, if ever. Then there’s the concern about transporting all the waste.

Americans are still wary of nuclear energy. A recent poll by MIT showed 54% strongly oppose having a nuclear power plant within 25 miles of their home and a similar number think it is harmful to the environment. Only 28% believe radioactive waste can be safely stored indefinitely.

Anti-nuclear countries include Germany and Sweden, which have vowed to phase out their nuclear plants. (In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel, a physicist, disagrees with her government’s stance, calling the phase-out “disastrous” for German efforts to curb CO2.)

Belgium and Spain have decided not to build and South Korea has slowed its efforts. The state of California renewed its position against nukes this year, though a group of businesspeople there want to put the issue on the ballot.

How practical is it?
With the industry pretty much in mothballs for the 20 years since Chernobyl, a scarcity of uranium, parts and trained workers would hamper a ramp-up of nuclear power. It also takes a very long time to build one.

Some studies, including one from the Council on Foreign Relations, suggest it could take 50 years to make a dent in curtailing GHG emissions with nuclear power. The Oxford Research Group said the world would need to construct 3,000 reactors, or 1 a week for the next 60 years, to make a difference, and others have made similar estimates.

International monitoring
The Foreign Relations Council study said an international agreement is needed to ensure safe and secure practices and storage of nuclear waste.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, responsible for monitoring 900 nuclear sites in 145 countries, recently told Congress it doesn’t have enough money in its $130 million budget to adequately safeguard the world’s nuclear materials. Indiana Sens. Richard Lugar (R) and Evan Bayh (D) proposed giving IAEA another $10 million to upgrade its increasingly obsolete laboratory in Austria.

Bayh and Lugar’s bill (S. 1138) also calls for an international fuel bank that would be a reliable and secure source of nuclear fuel, and includes incentives for non-nuclear countries not to develop their own enrichment and reprocessing plants (which could be used for weapons). A similar strategy is in President Bush’s Global Nuclear Energy Partnership concept. Expect to hear a lot more about international monitoring and cooperation if nuclear energy is on the rise again, as it appears to be.

(Sources: PlanetArk.com, Greenwire, E&E Daily, Christian Science Monitor, International Herald Tribune, Los Angeles Times, E Magazine, U.S. Dept. of Energy)


News briefs

1. Natural disasters increasing rapidly all around the world
The number of natural disasters doubled between 2004-2006, from 200 a year up to 400, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Floods alone were up from 60 to 100 in that period, and so far this year 70 serious floods have been recorded. Flooding has affected 500 million people and is straining relief efforts. Above-average heatwaves have occurred on 4 continents, in Africa, Asia, Europe and South America. The organization also found that global temperatures in January and April were the highest ever recorded, topping the average by 3.4 degrees F in January and 2.47 degrees in April. Other researchers studying Western Europe found the average length of a heat wave there has risen from 1.5 days to 3 days since 1880, and that the number of extremely hot days has tripled. (Source: PlanetArk, NY Times)

2. Don’t be lulled by lack of hurricane activity so far this year
It could just be the calm before the storms. With little tropical storm activity in the Atlantic so far this summer, the U.S. Climate Protection Center revised its forecast last week, predicting 9 hurricanes this season – down 1 from their prediction last May. This is still well above the average of 5.9. Forecasters said 3-5 of those storms are likely to become major hurricanes, with winds exceeding 110 mph. August-October is the peak season and the forecasters said those in hurricane-prone areas should keep up their guard. (Source: E&E PM)

3. New 10-year temperature forecast shows rise after 2009
Global temperatures will likely stabilize for the next two years, counteracted by natural causes, before temperatures rise sharply again at the end of the decade, British researchers said this week in the journal Science. Using computer models, the researchers, from the Met Office in Exeter, England, plotted out likely temperatures for the next 10 years. After 2010, each year has a 50% chance of exceeding the record hot year of 1998, they said, and after 2014 the odds of record-setting temperatures will be even greater. The two-year stall is expected as a result of cooling in the Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean over the past two years. A 10-year prediction should be more useful than the 50- or 100-year forecasts provided by most scientists and should help planners and emergency responders better prepare, the study authors said. (Sources: The Guardian, CNBC)

4. Illinois legislature OK’s RES and energy efficiency standards
At the end of July, in the midst of the flurry of activity in Washington, the Illinois General Assembly approved a Renewable Electricity Standard of 25% by 2025 and an Energy Efficiency Performance Standard calling for a 2% reduction in energy demand by 2015. The governor is expected to sign both bills. Still under consideration, as state leaders got bogged down in a budget fight, were the Illinois Clean Car Act (HB 3424), which would adopt California’s strict standards for tailpipe emissions, and the Energy Efficiency Building Act (SB 526). (Sources: Environmental Law and Policy Center, Illinois League of Conservation Voters)

5. Court halts drilling in Arctic waters to assess impact
As international interest in Arctic oil peaks, and Russia plants a flag at the North Pole, an Appeals Court has blocked Shell Oil Co. from drilling offshore from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, pending a review of whether it will endanger whales and other animals. The area is home to 10% of the remaining polar bears. A hearing is set for Aug. 14. “It would take just one spill on the icebound Beaufort Sea that borders the Refuge to create a perpetual toxic waste site that could never be cleaned up – because the oil industry has no proven method for cleaning up oil in icy water,” warned Natural Resources Defense Council senior attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a letter to supporters. Shell says it has studied the impact on animals and developed a plan to respond to spills. (Sources: Bloomberg, NRDC)


Congressional round-up

*Climate bills face tough time in Conference, then likely veto
In late September and October, the climate bills recently passed by the Senate and House will have a tough go of it in the House-Senate Conference, with opponents and lobbyists continuing to hammer away on contentious points. The corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard of 35 mpg by 2020, passed by the Senate, never made it to a vote in the House because of objections from the auto industry, many Republicans and Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.) The Renewable Electricity Standard, calling for utilities to produce 15% of their power from renewable sources by 2020, made it through the House but was blocked in the Senate, after fierce lobbying by the utility industry and southeastern states concerned that they don’t have access to enough renewable resources. The energy tax bill also passed in just one chamber, the House, and is fiercely opposed by the oil and gas industries and “oil patch” Democrats. Once the Conference agrees, the new bills will have to be accepted by both chambers. Finally, they will go to the president, who is likely to veto them because they don’t increase domestic oil and gas production. Nonetheless, advocates will be working hard to get strong but palatable bills through the Conference committee. (E&E Daily, Greenwire)

*Lieberman, Warner unveil plan to cut GHG 70% by 2050
Before the recess, Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.) previewed a “compromise” economy-wide plan to cut Global Warming they will introduce in the fall. It requires electric utilities, heavy manufacturers, petroleum refiners and importers to limit GHG to 2005 levels by 2012, then cut them 10% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. The Senators offer a cap-and-trade system that would initially give away more than half the credits to industries most impacted by the new requirements, with another 24% to be auctioned. Revenue from the auctions would go for alternative power sources, carbon capture, new transportation technologies and adaptation to climate change. Industry would be able to meet 15% of its obligations through offsets, and U.S. trading partners would have to buy credits for carbon-intensive exports. Environment Committee Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) called it “an excellent starting point.” (Greenwire)

*Dingell takes his energy tax views on the road during break
Powerful House Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.) has been talking to constituents about his plan to introduce a gasoline tax of up to 50 cents and a “stiff” tax on carbon in an effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions. He spoke at two town meetings, in Ann Arbor and Dearborn, last week. He also advocated removing the mortgage deduction on “McMansions,” homes of over 3,000 sq. ft., and increasing funds for low-income energy assistance. Dingell will play a critical role in crafting a House bill to cut GHG emissions this fall. Ford CEO Alan Mulally said this week he favors Dingell’s idea of a gasoline tax over CAFE standards. (Source: Greenwire)


Xtreme weather watch

*10 million people in India, Nepal and Bangladesh have been left homeless and are increasingly desperate as they face food shortages and disease. More than 455 have died in the annual floods, which are the worst in living memory in some areas. (PlanetArk)
*About a half-million people in Sudan have been flood victims in the past month, according to the U.N. The earlier and heavier than usual rains caused cresting rivers and flash floods. Many in Sudan lose their homes to flooding each year, but this was the worst in memory. (PlanetArk)
*Nearly 1,000 Chinese were dead or missing in disasters last month. Like other parts of Asia, China experienced intense rain and floods, while some parts of the country suffered severe drought. In July alone, a reported 464,000 homes and other buildings were destroyed, 3.8 million people were evacuated, and 7.5 million faced water shortages. (PlanetArk)
*Northern Greece was hit by heavy rains last week, resulting in flooding and power outages in the middle of an unusually hot summer. Greece has seen two heat waves this summer, with temperatures up to 115F, and has had thousands of forest fires, some suspected arson by unscrupulous developers wanting to build on wooded land. (PlanetArk)
*The first half of 2007 in Texas has been the wettest on record, with rainfall of 27.11 inches for January-July, compared with an average of 16.21, according to the National Weather Service. Serious flooding resulted. The good news? It ended a 10-year drought. (Greenwire)
*South Africa’s first substantial snowstorm in more than 25 years dumped about 10 inches in some regions in June (which is winter there). Meanwhile, Chile, having its coldest winter in 30 years, had snow in its wine region for the first time in a half-century. (CNN, PlanetArk)


Do something

Feeling frustrated by the slow progress of our government in acting against Global Warming – the fact that bills passed this session could end up being vetoed by the President? You can express your impatience and concern by joining in a one-day fast Sept. 4, the day Congress returns to Washington. Check it out at http://www.climateemergency.org.