Weekly angst

Mass transit must expand; Chicago running in reverse
The “city that works,” has a problem. The state that doesn’t work right now (an intra-party feud I won’t get into) hasn’t come up with the money to keep mass transit running, so we are facing a so-called “doomsday scenario” Nov. 4, with plans to eliminate 39 bus routes and raise prices from $2 to $3 or more. And that will be followed by a double-dare doomsday in January with even more cuts and fare increases, if state leaders can’t get their act together.

This at a time when a new report with the cumbersome name “Public Transportation’s Contribution to U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction” tells us we should be increasing mass transit.

Greenhouse gases from transportation make up about one-third of the total emitted in the U.S.

Two-car households could cut their carbon footprint 30% by eliminating one car and using public transit instead, the report says. They could save more that way than by insulating their home and adjusting their thermostat (though they should do both).

Transportation emissions in 2005 were 6.9 million tons less than they would have been if everyone used private cars, the report says. Of that, 3 million tons was saved because of the additional traffic congestion and delays that were prevented. A single person saves 2 metric tons a year by using public transit.

Other benefits
Additional benefits of public transportation include less need for parking, both on- and off-street; more efficient use of roads; shorter commute times; and enabling higher-density land use, which leads to fewer miles traveled, the report says.

In the period 1990-2004, vehicle emissions grew 29%. SUVs and light trucks grew the most, with emissions up 64%, compared with 1.8% for cars.

Daily commuting time in cars has increased 7.5% per year, largely because of congestion, causing stress to workers and their families, as well as wasted gas. Nationwide, 78% of commuters drive to work alone, though that figure varies state-to-state. In New York it’s 56%, in Michigan 85%.

What can be done?
Even with increased corporate auto fuel economy (CAFE) standards (higher mpg), emissions from transportation won’t decline in the future because of the continuing increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). VMT closely tracks GDP in the U.S., not to mention the coming increase in cars in developing countries like China.

Gas prices do seem to make a difference. Part of the reason for increased driving in recent decades was a decline in gasoline prices after 1975. But in May this year, prices hit a new high of $3.26/gallon, so that may slow things down.

King County in Washington state is a paragon of mass transit, according to the report. It has plans to switch to biodiesel and expects to reduce CO2 emission by 22,000 metric tons. It also plans to increase ridership significantly. Other good examples are Grand Rapids, Mich., and New York City. The latter is switching buses to compressed natural gas and hybrids. (Last week at LaGuardia Airport I saw two hybrid buses and a hybrid cab in the course of a few minutes). NY hopes to have 40% hybrid buses by 2010.

Increasing mass transit ridership is the key to reducing emissions and at the same time cutting traffic congestion. In NYC, the MTA increased ridership 8.5% on subways between 2000-2006. Cities can stimulate additional mass transit use by making less parking available, charging fees to enter the downtown and collecting tolls, the report concludes.

Meanwhile, in Chicago we’re going the opposite direction. If you live in Illinois, tell your elected reps – including the governor – to get on the ball and fund the CTA. NOW. Go to http://www.savechicagotransit.com.

Congressional round-up

• Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) blocked a formal Conference Committee on the energy bill last week, because she objected to the plan to take billions in tax breaks from the oil companies and give them to clean energy. Negotiations continued informally, however, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said she hopes to wind things up before the Nov. 16 recess and have a vote either that week or Dec. 3.
• Citigroup called the fuel economy (CAFE) standards in the Senate-passed energy bill “tough but attainable” in a report last week. Auto lobbyists are asking for a weaker version, saying they can’t attain the standards in the Senate bill.
• Senate Environment Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) pushed to move along the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill quickly, in the hope it would be out of committee when she leads a Congressional delegation to Bali for international talks in December. She doesn’t want the Bush administration to be the only ones representing the U.S. in these important negotiations about a post-Kyoto agreement, and she would like to be able to show some progress.
• Lieberman-Warner picked up an important vote in subcommittee when Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) offered his support. It’s the first time Baucus has been in favor of cap-and-trade and his vote is a key one. Now they need one more, either from the left or from the right.
(Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM, Sierra Club)

Take action

Tell your Senators in Washington to support a strong energy bill. Go to the Environmental Law and Policy Center’s Web site at: http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/federal_clean_energy_bill. and add your name.

This Saturday is Climate Action Day across the country. Join a Step It Up action near where you live. Get the details at http://www.StepItUp2007.org.

News in brief

CO2 going into atmosphere 35% faster, as land and sea absorb less
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere grew 35% faster than predicted from 2000-2006, a new British-Australian study reveals. While some of the speed-up is caused by rapid global economic growth, half the unexpected increase is due to less absorption of CO2 by the land and oceans, likely because of changing wind patterns and droughts, the authors found. The study, published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was based on data collected by the UN and NOAA. A second study, by the University of East Anglia, showed the uptake of CO2 in the North Atlantic dropped by half from the mid-90s to the period 2000-2005. (Source: Greenwire, BBC)

Get ready for a world with less oil, many experts caution
Some say worldwide oil production has peaked; others say it will do so soon. In either case, the impact on economies and lifestyles will be extreme. A German study by Energy Watch, a think tank with ties to the Green Party, says oil peaked in 2006 and now will go down 7% a year, falling more than 50% by 2030. The Editor of Petroleum Review, Chris Skrebowski, sees the peak coming in 2010 or 2011. Energy Watch gave its report recently at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil-USA conference. There, some of the talk was about “peak exports,” with predictions that oil-producing countries will soon hold back more for themselves, including for future generations. Meanwhile, the oil industry glosses over such dire predictions and most of the public is unaware. How will the impending energy gap be filled? Energy Watch says it will be hard to produce enough alternative fuel fast enough and gas pumps will run dry. Others say the answer is in Canada’s vast tar sand deposits and coal-to-liquid, both of which are ecologically dirty. (Sources: PlanetArk, The Guardian, Falls Church News-Press)

Global demand seen for more smaller, cheaper cars
Automobile companies are increasingly developing smaller, low-cost cars, as they see global demand for them rising 30% by 2013. While gasoline prices are a factor, most of the growth will be in developing countries where first-time buyers want small, inexpensive cars. SUV growth is seen as dropping 4% in that time. Toyota has said it may have a $7,000 car by 2010. Electric cars would work well in France, the company says, because 80% of electricity comes from nuclear power. But in China electricity comes from coal, so electric cars won’t help much with greenhouse gases. Mazda research is focused on hydrogen as a fuel. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

Whether the recent California fires are the result of climate change is in some dispute. Some of the causes had nothing to do with Global Warming – increased building in wooded areas, the Forest Service’s habit of putting out fires too fast and leaving underbrush as fuel, and of course the notorious Santa Ana winds. But the California fires, like other mega-fires of the past few years that are much bigger and hotter and harder to fight, took place in an environment that had:
• An average yearly temperature increase of 1 degree F in the West.
• A fire season that is now 78 days longer than in the late ‘80s, due to early spring melt and runoff.
• 9 fewer inches of rain this year than normal.
• Triple-digit summer temperatures.
(Christian Science Monitor, CBS 60 Minutes)

Georgia’s dispute with Alabama and Florida over how much water should be released from Lake Lanier, Atlanta’s main source of drinking water, is heating up. All three states have appealed to the president – Georgia to cut the flow and the other two states to keep it as usual. Florida says a cutback will damage fisheries and the oyster/shellfish business in the Panhandle, while Georgia is worried Atlanta won’t have enough to drink (though Macon has offered to truck some in for a price). The three states have squabbled over water rights since the early ‘90s, but the extreme drought facing them all has pumped up the volume. (Greenwire)

Meanwhile, Georgia’s weather forecast for next year isn’t very encouraging. The state climatologist said last week it will be drier and hotter in 2008, though how much so will depend on the strength of La Niña. With less rain than normal, the record drought now troubling the northern part of the state is likely to last into spring and summer, David Stooksbury said. (Greenwire)

North and South Carolina, as well as Tennessee, are affected by drought as well. In S.C., the town of Rock Spring has been dry for a month, with pickups bringing in water to keep the cattle alive. A Baptist minister has even put baptisms on hold. In N.C., the governor has asked for a voluntary cut of 50% in consumption until month’s end, to see how much conservation they can accomplish voluntarily. (Greenwire)

Autumn leaves are duller now in New England, where fall colors brought 3.4 million people to Vermont in 2005. “It’s nothing like it used to be,” said U. of Vermont biologist Tom Vogelmann, because autumn is too warm now for rich, vibrant colors. Cold nights are needed to stem the flow of water to the leaves, and warmth has brought fungus to attack the usually dazzling red and sugar maples. Of course, the tourism industry is slow to admit the problem. Just wait, they say, and come in late October, rather than the second week, which used to be the peak. (Associated Press)

Weekly angst

Congress has chance to lead on climate -- or not
Will automakers have to build more fuel-efficiency cars and SUVs? Will electric companies have to draw more of their power from clean sources like wind and solar instead of just coal? Will huge tax breaks be shifted from fossil fuels to renewable energy to give them a fighting chance of competing? And will the U.S. finally take a leadership role in the fight against Global Warming by mandating a cap on GHG emissions? Or will we just sit by and watch the world get warmer, the weather more extreme and the seas higher?

These things will probably be decided in the next few weeks. And you can help determine the outcome by telling your representatives in Washington how you feel. For sure, the auto and oil industries are making their wishes known.

So Capitol Hill is where the important Global Warming action is right now. And they really need to wind things up by the end of the year, with primary season looming in January. Here’s a weekly update:

• After starting informal negotiations Monday in an effort to reconcile the two summer energy bills, Democratic leaders are on the verge of launching a formal Conference Committee as GOP objections are withdrawn.
• The three main issues for Dem leaders and environmental groups are the Senate’s 35 mpg by 2020 CAFE standards, the House-passed 15% renewable electricity standard (RES) by 2020, and $15 billion in efficiency and renewable energy tax incentives funded by repeal of oil tax breaks.
• Opponents are demanding changes in the CAFE standards, especially different requirements for cars and light trucks (SUVs).
• The White House has threatened a veto unless some items are removed, including oil taxes, and CAFE standards and the biofuels mandate are modified.
• The Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill was finally introduced Thursday with two main changes: a 15% cut in GHG by 2020 (instead of 10%), and no more free credits to manufacturers after 2036 (formerly 2050). Some subcommittee members find the bill too strong and others find it too weak, so prospects are uncertain. Environmental groups are split on this “compromise” bill.

More about the energy bill
Bipartisan, bicameral negotiations started this week with some of the less controversial items, such as efficiency, and went day and night after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared there’d be no formal Conference due to GOP objections. By week’s end those objections were being withdrawn and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid seemed poised to announce a Conference.

President Bush asked for the following:
• Separation of cars and trucks in the CAFE provision
• No renewable electricity standard
• Alternative fuels of about 35 billion gallons by 2017, including coal, natural gas and hydrogen.
• No removal of oil tax breaks
• No reduction of domestic oil and gas production
• Removal of “price-gouging” penalties and the ability to bring anti-trust action against OPEC.
Absent these changes, he threatened to veto the bill. Some lawmakers countered he is “too cozy” with the oil interests.

Bipartisan opponents of the CAFE standards in the Senate include Michigan’s two Democratic Senators, Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, and Sen. George Voinovich (R-Ohio), who sent a letter to leaders saying the bill is “overly stringent.” They asked for something more like the industry-approved Hill-Terry proposal of 32 mpg by 2022, with separate requirements for cars and light trucks and credit for flex-fuel vehicles. Also signing the letter were Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), Kit Bond (R-Mo.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.).

House Speaker Pelosi said she is looking to wrap up negotiations on this bill by Nov. 16, before a two-week recess, and vote Dec. 3.

More on Lieberman-Warner (S.B. 2191)
The “compromise” cap-and-trade bill from Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.) was finally introduced this week. It draws from nearly a dozen other bills and mandates an overall GHG reduction of 63% by 2050, from power plants, transportation and manufacturing. Instead of mandates for residential and commercial buildings, it sets new efficiency standards for buildings and appliances.

It begins by auctioning 24% of the credits in 2012, up to 73% by 2036. The rest would be allocated free, mainly to manufacturers affected most by the law. That seems to be the main point of contention for those who want stronger action. Global Warming subcommittee Sens. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called for auctioning more credits and insisted the federal law not pre-empt states from taking stronger action (which it doesn’t at this point).

Some environmental groups – Clean Air Watch and U.S. PRIG – are disappointed and want 100% of the credits auctioned, while others, such as Environmental Defense, Natural Resources Defense Council and World Wildlife Federation, praised the bill as a strong step in the right direction. The Sierra Club called for 20% by 2020 and more credits auctioned. The president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change said, “This is the breakthrough we’ve been waiting for – a bill with a real chance of passing.”

Environment Chair Barbara Boxer has promised hearings, but the prospects for the bill are unclear at this point. A group of power companies have asked for a “safety valve,” a cap on the price they would have to pay for credits. Lieberman-Warner does not have a “safety valve” but does allow for flexibility if prices are too high for too long.

Original co-sponsors of the 200-page bill are Sens. Robert Casey (D-Pa.), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.).

Lieberman’s Global Warming subcommittee will hold hearings on the bill this Wednesday. He plans on markup Nov. 1. If it gets out of committee, the bill will need 60 votes to pass the Senate.
(Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM, Greenwire)

Take action

Call your senators and rep in Washington and tell them why it’s urgent to come up with an energy bill that has both strong CAFE standards and RES. The Congressional switchboard number is (202)224-3121. Also tell your senators you want to see Lieberman-Warner strengthened and passed before year’s end.

Tell Toyota to stop lobbying against a strong CAFE provision. They just want to keep selling outsize trucks in the U.S. If you are a Toyota owner or thinking of becoming one, let them know that. Go to http://www.truthaboutToyota.com.

News in brief

Coal-fired plant in Kansas is first to be rejected based on CO2
The Kansas Dept. of Health and Environment is the first government agency to turn down a permit for a coal-fired electric plant citing the risks posed by carbon dioxide. Referring to the recent Supreme Court decision defining CO2 as a pollutant, the agency rejected Sunflower Electric Power’s proposal for twin 700-megawatt plants. In doing so, the agency overruled its staff’s recommendation. The plants would have emitted 11 million metric tons of CO2 annually. Environmental groups fighting new coal plants around the country were heartened by the decision. (Sources: Greenwire, Washington Post)

Burning Amazon signals deforestation on the rise again
In August, more than 16,000 fires were spotted by satellite, burning their way across Brazil, mostly in the Amazon rainforest. Despite a government announcement the same month that Brazil had cut forest destruction 30% in the past few years, there are signs the economics of cattle ranching, illegal logging and soybean crops are too great a temptation to many in the area. Loggers say they will continue to cut down trees until the government gives them a viable economic alternative. (Source: The Guardian, UK)

World Bank sets up fund to pay countries to preserve forests
The World Bank, which has been criticized for funding some of the activities that lead to deforestation, announced last week it has set up a fund of $300 million to help stop the practice. The Bank will pay developing countries to protect and replant tropical forests. The Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, which will be part of post-Kyoto negotiations in Bali in December, will be tested on 3-5 countries. Deforestation is responsible for an estimated 20% of the greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. (Source: PlanetArk)

Wind project off Cape Cod denied permit by local board
The Cape Cod Commission last week denied the long-delayed Cape Wind project a permit to lay underwater transmission lines. The 130-turbine offshore wind farm proposed for Nantucket Sound would be in federal waters and a decision is expected from Washington next month. Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.), with family summer homes in the area, is a strong opponent. The state of Massachusetts approved the project last year after new Gov. Deval Patrick (D) replaced Mitt Romney (R), who opposed the plan. A state energy facilities board could override the local Cape Cod board. A statewide poll, taken this summer by the Patriot Ledger, found 84% favored the wind farm. Residents on Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard were 53% in favor. (Source: Greenwire, Boston.com, Patriot Ledger)

Step it Up – Plan to participate in climate activities Nov. 3
A day of national action against Global Warming is being planned by StepItUp, which held actions all over the country last April. Go on http://www.StepItUp07.org to see what’s planned for your area. In Chicago, there will be a Education and Leadership Forum at High Risk Gallery, 1113 Belmont Ave., from noon-2:30 p.m. If you plan to attend, e-mail Tony Fuller at Tony@chicagoclimateaction.com. Several speakers from environmental groups and the city will talk about what’s happening now, followed by a forum for legislators. The event is co-sponsored by the Sierra Club, Climate Justice Chicago and Chicago Global Warming Meet-up.

Xtreme weather watch

Atlanta’s drought-plagued water source, Lake Lanier, drops a foot each week and could dry up in 3-4 months. So Georgia's governor has sued the Army Corps of Engineers for releasing too much water, some of which flows to Alabama and Florida. And now he’s asked the President to intervene. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s governor has warned he may have to declare a state of emergency soon if voluntary conservation efforts aren’t enough. The Southeast is living through an extreme drought. And unlike the Southwest, the area is not accustomed to dealing drought. (Atlanta Business Chronicle, New York Times, Greenwire, PlanetArk)

China, Nepal, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam will send experts to a 3-month UN course on flood-protection next month. Participants will map risks of downpours, overflowing rivers and rising seas, expected to worsen because of climate change. They will learn about better dyke design, weather forecasting and flood warnings, focusing attention on large urban centers. Asia suffers more from flooding than other regions. (PlanetArk)

Many Central American countries were hit by torrential rains, deadly flooding and landslides in the past couple of weeks. In Nicaragua at least 4,000 were evacuated. A mudslide in Costa Rica buried 14. Haiti, most vulnerable because 90% of the forests have been cleared, was hardest hit, with a death toll of at least 31. (PlanetArk)

News extra

GHG growth in atmosphere at critical level now – scientist
Worldwide economic growth has pushed greenhouses gases in the atmosphere to a level not expected for another 10 years – about 455 ppm of CO2 equivalents, a well-known scientist and author of “The Weather Makers” told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. last week. The scientist, Tim Flannery, has reviewed the data going into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s report due out in November. He said climate-changing gases CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and hydrofluorocarbons have already passed a critical level and relief will depend on finding ways to extract the gases out of the air. He urged the developed world to pay countries to avoid more deforestation. (Sources: AP, PlanetArk.com)

Pelosi will try for energy bill with a Conference committee
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) plans to reconcile the Senate and House energy bills without a formal Conference committee, sources told E&E Daily last week. Instead she will rely on party leaders to work out the differences. Other bills, such as ethics legislation, have been reconciled without a Conference. Democrats maintain they are following this strategy because Senate Republicans would block Conference action. And House GOP reps complain the bills don’t address domestic energy production, a reason President Bush gives for his threatened veto. Key provisions to be reconciled are the 35 mpg CAFE standards passed by the Senate and 15% renewables in the House version. (Source: E&E Daily)

Amazon deforestation could be stopped in 7 years, says NGO plan
Nine non-governmental organizations, including The Nature Conservancy, Greenpeace and World Wildlife Foundation, have announced a plan to achieve zero Amazon deforestation by 2015. The plan would require $550 million from Brazilian and international sources and would combine public policy and marketing to achieve annual targets. In 2006, 17% of the rainforest had been destroyed. Clearing trees for agriculture and ranching and other land-use changes have created 75% of Brazil’s GHG emissions. (Source: Environmental News Network)

Wetlands may be best way to get carbon out of atmosphere
Wetlands are a good carbon sink and could be a source of credits in a carbon-trading program, a University of Maryland scientist says. He is measuring the carbon in Chesapeake Bay wetlands planted four years ago and thinks he will find that the ability for salt marshes to attract CO2 exceeds that of trees and other plants. Maryland and 9 other Northeast states have agreed to start trading credits in 2009, in an effort to cut GHG 10%. At the local level, scientist Brian Needelman sees power companies buying credits to help restore marshes in the Chesapeake and revitalize wildlife there. But his findings could have much broader implications. (Sources: Baltsun.com, Greenwire)

Futuristic, eco-friendly cars unveiled for Tokyo Motor Show
A hydrogen soft-body van that rotates inside so it doesn’t have to go into reverse and a 1-person electric stroller-shaped vehicle called iReal that can run on a sidewalk. These are just two futuristic autos that will star at the Tokyo Motor Show Oct. 26-Nov. 11. Electric cars that can move sideways will be there too. While the vehicles are years from commercial viability, the innovation and commitment to greener vehicles is real, say automakers Honda (the van) and Toyota (iReal). (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

This winter will be warmer than usual in most of the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said last week. Above-average temperatures are forecast for the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, northern Alaska and Hawaii, while the Northern Plains and Northwest will be cooler. Persistent drought will continue in the South, while Hawaii, the Northern Rockies and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will be wetter than usual, said NOAA. Overall temperatures are expected to be nearly 3% warmer than the 30-year norm, but slightly cooler than last winter. (PlanetArk, E&E News PM)

If you can stand the heat, but not the humidity, be concerned. As the Earth gets warmer, humidity rises, which in turn causes fiercer tropical rainstorms, according to a study just published in the journal Nature. Water vapor, which itself is a heat-trapping gas, increased 2.2% between 1976-2004, as the temperature rose 0.9 degrees F, the study says. Hot, tropical regions are likely to see the greatest rise in humidity. (PlanetArk, E&E News PM)

Climate change is increasing ‘natural’ disasters, and countries need to pay more attention to risk reduction, a UN official said last week. More than 250 million people a year are now affected by climate-related disasters, one-third more than a decade ago, according to international relief agencies. In 2006 Red Cross and Red Crescent responded to 482 disasters, up from 278 just 2 years earlier. Floods increased in that time to 121 from 54, and this year has already passed to 100 mark. (PlanetArk)

Some of the worst flooding in decades swept through north-central Vietnam last week in the aftermath of typhoon Lekima. At least 67 were dead or missing and floods and landslides damaged 100,000 homes and 37,000 acres of rice. This follows flooding in August that killed 80. Vietnam is hit by an average of 10 storms per year. (PlanetArk)

Will we get a Global Warming law anytime soon?
What are the chances we’ll see significant action on climate change in Washington this year? There certainly is an urgency, and a lot of activity. But will we see any results?

Legislation is now on two tracks in Congress.
* The Senate and House bills passed in the summer could be reconciled in Conference, giving us fuel-efficiency standards for autos and/or renewable energy standards for power plants, as well as other less-significant provisions.
* A new cap-and-trade bill could mandate economy-wide greenhouse-gas cuts and set up a credit-trading system.

President Bush doesn’t seem to like either one, and there are obstacles to even getting these bills to his desk. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who, as head of the Global Warming subcommittee, is championing a compromise cap-and-trade bill, said he thinks Congress will pass a limit on emissions with cap-and-trade by the end of 2008. He expects a floor debate in the Senate at the end of this year or early next year, though that gets him into the primary election season.

Senate Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), who has championed Global Warming legislation, said last week he doubts Bush would sign a mandatory cap-and-trade bill. Manik Roy, from the Pew Center for Global Climate Change, called it a “very hard political call.” Certainly, Bush’s international position now is for a voluntary – not mandatory – agreement. Would pressure from GOP candidates force him to change his stance before he leaves office? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Reconciling the Senate and House bills
House Energy Chair John Dingell and the rest of the Michigan delegation oppose the 35 mpg corporate fuel economy (CAFE) standard passed by the Senate, and there is now a new round of lobbying against it by the auto industry. So the likelihood of keeping both that and the 15% renewable electricity standards passed by the House intact is in question – though environmental groups are hard at work to make it happen. Both chambers would have to approve a reconciled bill (the Senate with 60 votes) and quite likely have to override a veto to make it law.

Appointment of a Conference Committee has been delayed as negotiations go on behind the scenes between party leaders. It’s not clear if differences can be hammered out or if Congress will simply move on to other legislation, says Roy, Pew’s legislative director.

Cap-and-trade bills
Meanwhile, there are many cap-and-trade bills or proposals in Congress. The ones getting the most attention right now are the Lieberman-(John)Warner (R-Va.) “compromise” proposal in the Senate and the Dingell-(Rick)Boucher (R-Va.) one just unveiled in the House.

Leiberman-Warner, still in draft form, calls for electric utilities, major industrial manufacturers and oil importers/refiners to limit their greenhouse gas emissions to 2005 levels by 2012. Then they must cut them 10% by 2020, and ultimately 70% by 2050. More than half the credits to be issued in a U.S. carbon market would be distributed free to power companies and manufacturers most affected by the new requirements.

One reason Lieberman thinks he can get 60 votes and avoid a filibuster is that industry is increasingly coming onboard for mandatory cap-and-trade because they want the law to be fashioned by this Congress, rather than risk a more Democratic one after 2008.

“They want the rules of the road to be set by a Congress with the current political make-up,” Lieberman told the World Environmental Center’s Sustainability Forum recently, “… and by an administration that is viewed as a friend of the fossil-fuel industries.”

It’s likely to be a long process though. The Lieberman-Warner bill will be marked up in their Global Warming subcommittee of Environment and Public Works, likely in October. If it's approved, the full EPW Committee under Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) will hold hearings and hear other ideas. Finally, if approved by committee, the bill will go to the floor for debate and amendments.

In addition to the emissions-reduction mandate from Environment and Public Works, technology and verification standards will come from Energy and Natural Resources, and the plan for credit allocations and revenue distribution from Senate Finance. So three different committees must OK parts of the package.

Offsets and other cost-control provisions are likely to be in the final bill as well. A Federal Reserve-type board would monitor trading and likely provide some kind of relief if prices get too high, according to the Lieberman-Warner draft bill. Some environmentalist groups strongly oppose any kind of “safety valve.” They also question whether Lieberman and Warner can get a 60-vote majority.

Dingell, Boucher unveil House bill
After floating a stiff carbon-tax alternative a few weeks ago, House Energy Chair Dingell and Energy and Air Subcommittee Chair Boucher last week proposed a cap-and-trade bill with mandatory reductions of 60-80% by 2050. It would cover greenhouses gases CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases.

A 22-page staff-written “White Paper” gives specifics, outlining the difficulties in determining who to regulate and how. A lot depends on how accurately measurements can be made and where to draw the line on tracking very small sources of emissions.

The two say that electricity generators can expect regulation, possibly with the same criteria as the EPA program for acid rain – all power plants of 25 megawatts or more, which would cover 99.6%.

On transportation, they prefer regulation “upstream,” on refiners and petroleum importers, not automobiles, but note there may need to be additional programs to promote auto efficiency. “Vehicles and fuels should be treated as a system,” they said. Seems to me that goes a long way to letting the auto industry off the hook.

Industrial emissions are harder to track, with several hundred thousand facilities, and may require decisions on which industries to regulate.

Additional white papers are expected in coming weeks, “to help focus debate.” They will cover emissions levels and a schedule for compliance, ways to control costs to the economy, carbon sequestration, offsets, the role of developing countries, and distribution of allowances. You can read the white papers at
http://energycommerce.house.gov/Climate_Change.
(Other sources: E&E Daily, Greenwire, The Daily Report, American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy, Physicians for Social Responsibility, and Pew Center for Global Climate Change.)

News in brief

Fires ravage Amazon rainforest; ranching, World Bank blamed
Large areas of Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia are thick with smoke as wildfires rage in the Amazon rainforest. The fires were first set by ranchers and farmers to “renovate” their pastures before the rains came. But an increase in cattle ranches and climate change have combined to create a tinderbox and thousands of fires are now out of control, racing across 2 million square kilometers of forest. Conservation groups blame the ranchers, as well as funding from the World Bank and Brazil’s Development Bank, which during the past three years have poured money into the area now choked with smoke. Thanks to the funding, new slaughterhouses and 4 million additional cattle have come into the area where the fires rage. (Source: The Independent UK)

Year-round Arctic sea ice declined 23% in past two years
We’ve read about the steady reduction in summer Arctic ice that will soon open up the area to summertime shipping. Now comes word from NASA that thicker, permanent all-year ice has also declined a dramatic 23% since 2005. The rare loss of permanent ice contributed to the lowest level of Arctic ice in September since records began in 1979 – 39% below average – and a likely decline of 50% since 1950. Warmer temperatures and unusual polar wind patterns are blamed. (Source: E&E News PM)

EPA should regulate CO2 from shipping, petitioners say
Earthjustice and a coalition on environmental groups filed a petition last week asking the EPA to regulate shipping emissions under the April Supreme Court decision putting greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. Jerry Brown, Attorney General of California, has filed a second petition on behalf of his state. Marine vessels – both cargo and cruise ships – contribute at least 3% of GHG and the amount has grown over the past few decades. The petition asks the EPA to require increased efficiency and cleaner fuels, and cover all cargo vessels entering U.S. waters. About 90% of trade is conducted by ship. (Sources: Environmental News Network, The Times UK)

China, biggest light bulb producer, to phase out incandescents
China, which produces 70% of the world’s light bulbs, will phase out incandescent bulbs by 2017, according to an agreement with the Global Environment Facility, which will supply $25 million as part of its effort to rid the world of the power-guzzling bulbs. China is the first developing nation to make such a pledge. GEF says the action could eliminate 500 million tons of carbon dioxide. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

More than 30 U.S. cities had record heat Monday, including New York (87) and Washington, D.C. (91). On Sunday, more than 70 cities set record highs for that date. Detroit (90) and Indianapolis (91) both were in the 90s later in the year than at any time since records began in the 1870s. (USA Today)

Heat and humidity stopped the Chicago Marathon in mid-stream Sunday, when the temperature reached 88 by 11:30 a.m. and race organizers cancelled out of concern for runners’ safety. One runner died from a heart condition, several others were still critical Monday, 49 went to the hospital and 250 were treated on-site. Temperatures were well above the average 72 degrees for Oct. 7 and runners complained about insufficient water. The previous record for the marathon was 84 in 1979. (AP, ChicagoTribune.com, Chicago Sun-Times)

Greece had its hottest summer in 50 years. The country suffered through an unprecedented three heat waves, with the one in June bringing 115-degree F temperatures to Athens. Average maximum temperatures for June-August were the highest in a half-century. The third heat wave contributed to widespread and disastrous forest fires. (Kathimerini Newspaper in Greece)

Take action

Tell your reps we need a Conference bill with CAFE standards, 15% renewables and a transfer of subsidies from oil to clean energy. Go to http://action.lcv.org/campaign/october_energy_alertand send a message today.

Tell Congress to pass legislation to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Go to Environmental Defense at http://environmentaldefense.org and click on Operation Climate Vote to send an e-mail expressing the urgency of getting substantial climate legislation to the floor by the end of the year.

News extra

Melting in Greenland speeds up; Arctic ice much thinner
This summer’s melt in Greenland was 150% above average, according to NASA. The amount of snow that melted this year could cover the U.S. twice over, according to the Geophysical Union’s Eos newspaper. Especially startling was the melting above 1.2 miles in altitude, with the fastest thaw in two decades. If all the ice in Greenland were to melt, it could raise sea levels 20 feet. In related news, large tracts of Arctic ice are now just 1 meter (3 feet) thick, according to a Norwegian survey. In 2001 the same areas were 2 meters (6 feet) thick. (Sources: Greenwire, NASA.gov, PlanetArk)

Chicago adds hybrids, plans bike drop-off program like in Paris
Chicago is making plans to increase its fleet of hybrids and start a program of bike drop-offs like the one that’s been popular in Paris. The city will replace old Crown Victorias with 300 new Toyota hybrids, adding to the 202 hybrids it now has. The bike program likely will be free for up to 30 minutes and $1.50 per half-hour after that. (Chicago Sun-Times)

British to turn off inefficient incandescent light bulbs
Britain will cut an estimated 5 million metric tons of greenhouse gases by 2012 by eliminating incandescent light bulbs. The phase-out begins next year through voluntary agreements with manufactures, retailers and electric companies. European Union competition laws require that the plan be voluntary. (Source: E&E News PM)

Americans see dismal record here on Global Warming curbs
People in the U.S. want leaders to move boldly to cut greenhouse gases, but only 1 in 5 approve of how President Bush, the Congress and private industry are handling the problem, a new poll shows. Only 1 in 10 think there has been strong public action in the past year, according to the Associate Press-Stanford University poll taken in late September. More Democrats and Independents disapprove of Bush’s performance, while Republicans are more likely to think Bush and business have caused little harm. But anxiety about the environment exists across party lines, with 80% saying Global Warming is already under way. (Source: AP)

BBC poll shows worldwide support for bold steps on emissions
In another, worldwide, poll by BBC, 90% said Global Warming should be curbed. BBC and the University of Maryland questioned 22,000 people in 21 countries this summer and found 79% think human activity is a significant cause of climate change. And 65% said major steps should be taken very soon. While 68% of Chinese said poor countries should cut emissions too, only 36% in India did. Pollsters determined there is a relationship to the amount of publicity given to the issue, with 36% of Indians surveyed saying they have heard little or nothing about Global Warming. Poll results were released last week. (Sources: BBC, Greenwire)

Bush Summit seen by some attendees and producing little
The Bush summit for major polluting countries last week accomplished little, according to several delegates. John Ashton from the U.K. told the New York Times the voluntary measures called for by President Bush would be ineffective in curbing Global Warming. Advanced technology, also touted by Bush, is good but needs government commitment and investment, he added. Everton Vargas from Brazil complained that “the whole agenda was set by the American government [and they] didn’t bring any new ideas.” The German Environment Minister said he spent 2 days talking with Democratic Congressional leaders, with an eye toward a post-Bush future. There was little applause for the president’s 15-minute speech, except among U.S. Cabinet and other Administration officials. The international community will next meet in Bali in December to discuss what happens when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. (Sources: New York Times, Greenwire)

FP&L pledges massive solar plant at Clinton Initiative meeting
Florida Power & Light announced plans for a $1.5 billion solar plant that will reduce CO2 emissions by 2 million metric tons over the next 5 years. This was just one of the pledges to fight Global Warming at the Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting last week in New York. Others included:
• 1Sky and a coalition will raise $50 million to push for U.S. goals and policies to match those of the European Union, which is committed to cutting GHG by 20% (from 1990 levels).
• Coca-Cola will spend $13.5 million to work with local farmers and non-profits on reforestation in Brazil.
• A group of utilities said they would eliminate 20 million tons of GHG a year through increased efficiency. Included are Duke Energy, Consolidated Edison, Edison International, Great Plains Energy, Pepco, PNM, Sierra Pacific and Xcel Energy.
• Standard Chartered Bank will underwrite $4 million to $5 million in debt for clean energy projects in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. (Sources: PlanetArk, E&E News PM, Greenwire)

Transportation Dept. lobbies again California EPA waiver
Rep. Henry Waxman’s (D-Calif.) investigation of Administration efforts to block California’s tailpipe-emissions law, has turned up e-mails showing Transportation Secretary Mary Peters, with White House approval, launched a lobbying campaign among governors and House members to stop the EPA from granting the state a waiver to set its own standards. DOT was working with the Michigan delegation, the documents show, because the auto industry strongly opposes the effort by California – and 12 other states – to cut auto emissions 30% by 2016. California, which has waited nearly two years to implement its law, asked for the waiver from EPA under the Clean Air Act. Other states are watching with interest because it will affect their ability to implement their laws. Meanwhile, 89 legislators wrote the EPA that a recent Vermont court ruling on vehicle emissions should clear the way for the EPA to grant the waiver. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has threatened to sue if the EPA doesn’t grant the waiver. (Sources: PlanetArk, San Francisco Chronicle, E&E News PM, E&E Daily)



Xtreme Weather Watch

Torrential rains and floods have swept through East and West Africa in recent weeks, destroying thousands of acres of farmland, and affecting a million people from Ethiopia to Senegal. Northern Ghana, the food basket of that nation, suffered unprecedented rains, causing 300,000 to flee their homes. (Reuters)

Uganda is reeling from the heaviest rains in 35 years, as floods affected hundreds of thousands and swept away 30 bridges, hampering relief work. Lack of drinking water and cases of diarrhea and malaria have overwhelmed medical workers. The UN’s World Food Program is calling for $65 million to feed 1.7 million facing shortages. (PlanetArk)

Extreme drought in Australia is cutting grain crops by 30% or more, causing a serious threat to the country’s important beef industry. Many feedlots that fatten cattle before export have had to be shut down. Australia has been the No. 1 beef exporter by value and No. 2 by volume. (PlanetArk)

‘Cap-and-trade’ is all the buzz; it's worth $billions
This fall, Congress will tackle a bill to cap greenhouse gas emissions. Most likely trading carbon credits will be part of the plan, as an incentive to business.

Cap-and-trade, simply put, is a system whereby the government caps, or sets restrictions on, overall emissions and then issues allowances, or “credits,” to companies that emit greenhouse gases. Companies that have trouble reaching their target can buy more credits and up their allowance. Those able to come in under their target can sell their excess credits and make money. All this is done on a carbon market worth billions.

Cap-and-trade has a history of success here cutting sulfur dioxide, which causes acid rain. It’s also being used by the European Union to meet its Kyoto goals. EU distributes allowances to the individual countries that can then be traded among them through an exchange.

Under Kyoto, the United Nations runs a program called the Clean Development Mechanism, in which rich countries can get credits by investing in clean-tech projects in developing countries. A number of other cap-and-trade programs have been set up in recent years, in the Northeast for example. Western states are looking to do the same thing.

Trade vs. tax
There is money to be made in trading carbon credits and it’s much more palatable in a capitalistic society than a politically unpopular “carbon tax.” The tax, where emitters pay by the ton, would guarantee money to reinvest in clean energy. Cap-and-trade, however, guarantees reduced emissions. And it is a market approach that lets those who can cut back most easily and cheaply do so, at the least cost to the economy.

Cap-and-trade is more flexible, gives businesses some control, and can be linked to other systems around the world. The EU plans to link its market to the UN’s in November. South Korea expects to have a carbon market by the end of the year, Canada may introduce one, and a voluntary Australian plan just started up.

Allocations: free or auctioned
How the credits are allocated is the most complicated part of the equation, and the one that will be most difficult to negotiate. They can either be auctioned or given away free, or some combination of the two.

Quite likely an American system will involve a combination of free and auctioned credits, with more auctioned as time goes on. In an auction, proceeds go to fund new cleaner technology, efficiency and adaptation. That’s an idea that appeals to environmentalists and economists alike.

If they’re given free, there will be a tug-of-war over whether most of the credits should go to big polluters, who have to change the most at considerable cost, or to reward companies that have already made a shift to cleaner technologies and more efficiency. One reason so many corporations are advocating cap-and-trade is they want to have input into how credits are distributed.

Corporations, such as those in the U.S. Climate Action Partnership (USCAP), agree that emissions should be cut by 60-80% by 2050 and that cap-and-trade should be phased in. But they disagree vehemently about how to distribute the credits. Utilities with high-polluting coal plants, like Duke Energy, favor one tack, while those more reliant on cleaner natural gas and nuclear, like Florida Power and Light, favor the other.

Problems with the EU’s giveaway
Giving away all the credits can cause problems, if the European Union’s experience is any guide. The EU’s cap-and-trade system, set up three years ago to help its countries meet their 5-6% reductions under Kyoto, has not been very successful so far. In fact, overall emissions have increased 1-1½%. It turns out that some companies overestimated their baseline emissions so allowances were set too high. Another problem was that many utilities are charging their customers as if they’d had to pay for the credits and reaped windfall profits in the billions of dollars a year.

For Phase 2, beginning next year, EU plans to auction more of the credits, set the caps lower, and monitor companies more carefully. We can learn from their experience.

Big money involved
Carbon trading is rapidly becoming big finance, involving billions of dollars. Europe’s market is worth $24 billion. Voluntary markets, including the Chicago Climate Exchange, tripled last year and are worth nearly $100 million. NYMEX is now eyeing carbon trading. “Carbon will be the world’s biggest commodity market,” says Barclay Capital’s Louis Renshaw. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have rapidly expanded their carbon business, with MS setting up a carbon bank in August.

New York, which handled credits for acid rain, lost its lead when the U.S. pulled out of Kyoto. Now London has cornered the market, with more CO2 traded there than in any other city in the world. They not only trade allowances, but also invest in clean-energy projects that generate more credits.

Different approaches in Congress
A number of bills to curb greenhouse gases were introduced this spring and summer, most of them including cap-and-trade. The proposals will be debated long and hard before any agreement can be reached.
* Sanders-Boxer would permit but not required cap-and-trade. The EPA would determine allocations, with allowances geared toward those most affected by Global Warming and its policies.
* McCain-Lieberman says the EPA would determine allocations, considering consumer impact, competitiveness, and other factors.
* Kerry-Snowe lets the president and EPA decide about allocations.
* Feinstein-Carper says a steadily increasing amount would be auctioned, starting with 15% in 2011, up to 100% in 2036. It applies primarily to power plants and rewards gas, nuclear and more efficient coal plants.
* Bingaman-Specter says for the first 5 years the majority of credits would be free, with 24% auctioned, 9% going to states, 8% in incentives for carbon capture, 5% to agriculture, and 1% rewarding early actions.
* Lieberman-Warner, proposed at the end of the last session as a compromise bill, says most credits would be free, but in 2012 about one-fourth would be auctioned to those seeking additional discharge.
* Waxman, in the House, calls for the president to distribute allowances, with the Congress ratifying or modifying the plan. Any auction proceeds would fund a Climate Reinvestment Fund.

So you can see there are many variations to be sorted out, and you can bet there’ll be heavy lobbying by industry. But cap-and-trade advocates are starting to count their votes in Washington and say they are within reach of a veto-proof vote in the House and the 60 votes needed in the Senate.

Note: The idea of this president or EPA making the decisions about allocation is scary, given the amount of foot-dragging we’ve seen on anything environmental (they must not have any toenails left). Legislation will have to be very clear in its instructions and set parameters for whomever will make those decisions and be responsible for seeing they are carried out.
(Sources: Miami Herald, Pew Center for Global Climate Change, Greenwire, Reuters PlanetArk.com, The Guardian, NY Times)


News in brief

Federal park, forest managers not prepared for Global Warming
U.S. agencies responsible for managing parks, forests, oceans and monuments are not prepared to deal with climate change, a Government Accountability Office report revealed last week. Managers have neither the scientific information nor the guidance from above to include climate change in their decisions, though they were instructed by a 2001 law to do so, said the report. There is increased evidence of Global Warming on the 600 million acres of public lands and 150,000 square miles of public waters, from the disappearing glaciers at Glacier National Park to rising seas in the Florida Keys, the report said. (Source: Greenwire)

U.S. Forest Service disgruntled; is it going to pot?
Forest Service employees are upset and confused about their mission, as the increasing number wild fires takes more of their time and half of their budget. Employees, surveyed anonymously, said they spend too much time fighting fires and not enough managing forests. They also were unhappy with their political leadership in Washington. Meanwhile Agriculture Undersecretary Mark Rey has a clear idea of their main mission. “Illegal drug trafficking is the No. 1 priority,” he told a news conference in Fresno, saying Forest Service officials have declared war on pot farms in national forests. Ron Pugh, a Forest Service special agent, said the goal is to dismantle and disrupt “the widespread illegal occupation of national forests by armed foreign nationals” who grow marijuana. Last year more than 260 pot farms were found on public lands in California. (Sources: Greenwire, Land Letter)

‘Erin go hot’: Ireland getting warmer twice as fast as others
During the past three decades, Ireland’s temperature has risen twice as fast as the world average, that country’s EPA said last week. Temperatures have risen 0.76 degrees F per decade for the past 30 years, bringing more floods and heat waves. Six of the 10 hottest years in Ireland’s history have occurred since 1990. Over the next 20 years, rain is predicted to be stronger and more frequent, but after that, the country could become dryer, putting pressure on water supplies. (Source: Greenwire)

Heart attacks will increase because of Global Warming
An increase in global temperatures will likely cause more cardiovascular disease, several doctors at the European Society of Cardiologists annual meeting said last week. High temperatures can cause hardening of the heart’s arteries, said Johns Hopkins Chief of Cardiology Gordon Tomaselli. Another doctor reported that France had 15,000 more heart attacks than usual during the severe heat wave of 2003 that killed 35,000 in Europe. A Swedish doctor predicted more heart disease as temperatures rise a few degrees over the next 40 years. (Source: Greenwire)

APEC biz leaders call for carbon pricing, cite tipping point
Business leaders at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Australia last week, called for their governments to put a price on carbon, saying businesses need an incentive to reduce emissions. “At the moment, you can pollute for nothing,” said Mark Johnson, who heads APEC’s Business Advisory Council. “Most of us believe we have reached a tipping point in science, and Global Warming is actually happening.” He also asked for governments to provide more incentives for investment in renewable energy sources. (Source: Greenwire)

APEC sets ‘aspirational' goal that will increase, not cut, GHG
Meanwhile, the APEC countries, were set to agree this weekend to a declaration including an “aspirational” target of cutting GHG emissions “intensity” 25% by 2030 and to yield to the United Nations as the proper framework for a post-Kyoto international agreement. “Intensity” is the operational word here, though. It ties GHG cuts to the growth of the economy and since the economy in Asia is likely to grow much more than 25%, there actually will be an increase in emissions, not a reduction. APEC also agreed wealthy countries have a greater responsibility to make reductions. (Sources: Greenwire, Agence France-Presse, BBC)


Xtreme weather watch

*This August was the hottest in the U.S. Southeast since records began in 1895. Average temperature was 82.3. The past few summers in the Southeast have been warmer than usual, with this summer in the top 10. (NY Times)

*A week-long heat wave in triple digits left 25 dead in Southern California last weekend. About 20,000 were without electricity. Temperatures rose to 111 in Simi Valley and 112 in parts of LA. Last year a two-week heat wave left 140 dead. (AP, NY Times)

*Category 5 Hurricane Felix struck land near the Nicaragua-Honduras border early last week, the first time in recorded history that two Category 5 storms made landfall in the same season. It was not far behind Dean, which hit Yucatan. Another record was broken when a second hurricane, Henrietta, hit Baha on the same day. (AP)


Take action

Don’t let this summer’s achievement in Washington die. Join the Union of Concerned Scientists in telling your Senators and Rep a new energy bill that emerges from Conference must contain 35 mpg fuel economy and a 15% renewable electricity standard. Go to http://ucsaction.org, scroll down and click on Hold Strong on Clean Energy Bill 9/7/07.

If you haven’t done so already, sign up today at http://www.greendimes.com to get rid of all those unwanted catalogs in your mailbox. I did so several months ago and I can tell you IT WORKS! Save trees and all the energy involved manufacturing and sending the catalogs you never even look at. Green Dimes will plant trees for you too.


Q&A

Reader Barb of Colorado asks: Is it true cattle cause as much Global Warming as gas and oil?
Earthling Angst answers: It’s true that livestock emit more greenhouse gas than automobiles. A report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization says 65% of the nitrous oxide (a GHG) caused by human activity comes from livestock manure. And methane, a potent GHG, is emitted when they pass gas. The report recommends a change in diet to reduce the emissions. (Source: E&E News PM)

News extra

1. Temps likely to rise 3-7 degrees F this century, says UN
Governments need to act quickly to curb Global Warming, a draft UN report says. And it's quite likely temperatures will exceed the European Union target of 3.6 degrees F above pre-industrial levels. The report says global average temperatures will go up 3-7 degrees F, and oceans will continue to rise for centuries to come. Sea levels will go up 7-23 inches this century; and even if greenhouse gases are stabilized, will eventually rise 1.3-12 feet as ocean water absorbs warmth and expands, the report says. This does not take into account any melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This summary of the three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports earlier this year is due for release in Spain Nov. 17. A draft was obtained last week by Reuters. Options to reduce the damage are listed as efficiency, more renewables, carbon markets and carbon sequestration at coal-fired plants. (Source: Reuters PlanetArk.com)

2. Rich countries disagree about GHG goals for 2020
Rich countries should take the lead in cutting greenhouse gases, delegates urged at a climate change meeting in Vienna last week. But the developed countries were divided on whether they should seek cuts of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020. The European Union said yes, but Canada, Japan, Sweden, New Zealand and Russia called the cuts too demanding, following on the heels of the Kyoto requirement for 5% below 1990 by 2012. The U.S. was not in the discussion because it didn’t sign on to Kyoto. Also at the Vienna meeting, attended by 1,000 delegates from 135 countries, a UN report said energy efficiency – in buildings, cars and power plants – is the best way to cut GHG in the short run. (Source: PlanetArk.com)

3. Ozone hole opens up early this year, offers GHG warning
While the ozone hole over Antarctic isn’t caused by Global Warming, it shows us that stopping harmful emissions doesn’t get results for a long time. Ozone-depleting substances were banned by the Montreal Protocol in 1989. But the hole is still getting bigger. It appeared early this year and will grow until October, the World Meteorological Organization said last week, possibly surpassing its record size in 2006. By 2050, the ozone layer, which protects us from damaging ultraviolet rays, should be back to pre-1980s levels. The hole likely won’t be gone until 2065, WMO said. Because CO2, the main cause of Global Warming, stays in the atmosphere for 100 years, and methane even longer, we'll be facing similar problems with climate change in the future. (Gee, we cut GHG 50% in 2030. Why is it still getting hotter?) (Source: Reuters)

4. Rice threatened by climate change; why should we care?
Half the world’s 6.6 billion people rely on rice for nourishment, so a group of international scientists in the Philippines are racing the clock to climate-proof the essential food crop. Global Warming already is causing droughts, intrusion of seawater and higher nighttime temperatures (up 1.5 degrees C from 1978 to 2003). Rice yields drop about 10% for each degree, according to the International Rice Research Institute. The future promises shifting rain patterns, so the scientists are working to breed rice that can be grown on dry land as well as handle hotter temperatures. Rising seas also are an “ominous threat,” according to IRRI. About half the rice is grown in India and China. (Sources: Agence France-Presse, truthout.com, E&E News PM)

5. Malaysia criticizes U.S., Australia climate agenda for APEC
Saying Australia and the United States lack the credentials to lead a discussion on Global Warming, Malaysia objected to the two countries’ desire to put climate change high on the agenda at next week’s Asia-Pacific meeting in Sydney. The two are the only industrial nations not to sign the Kyoto Protocol. Plans have been afoot to have the Asia Pacific Economic Council agree next week on voluntary, not binding curbs on greenhouse gases, as a follow-up to Kyoto. Malaysia said they should wait to meet with the international community in the proper forum to discuss ways to manage climate change. (Source: PlanetArk.com)

6. New Texas plant will offset carbon and mercury emissions
In a first, a power company has agreed to offset its emissions. NuCoastal Power Corp. said its new 303-megawatt plant in Port Comfort, Texas, will offset its mercury and carbon emissions by paying for such things as weatherization for low-income people and wind turbine production. In an agreement to end environmental opposition, the company also said it would install carbon-sequestration technology when it becomes available. (Source: E&E News PM)


Xtreme weather watch
Scientists predict: Global Warming will result in more extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires.

* Record rains pour on Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma
Up to a foot of rain fell on central Iowa Aug. 24, as flooding continued to damage large parts of the Midwest. Meanwhile, summer storms have poured record rains on Texas and parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. Corpus Cristi, Texas, recorded 33 inches by mid-August, 15 inches more than normal.
* Australian food-growers face disaster, as drought continues
After a brief respite in May and June, when rains came, Australia’s “food bowl,” the Murray-Darling river basin, is facing crop ruin with little or no irrigation, as a several-year drought continues. In good times the area provides half the country’s fruit and cereal grains and $18 billion (U.S.) in imports. On Thursday, area farmers said they were 10 days from ruin if it doesn’t rain.
* Indians eat raw flour to survive as monsoon rains rage
Nearly 2,000 have died in eastern India and Bangladesh from drowning, disease, collapsed houses and snakebites, as incessant and unusually heavy rains continue to cause flooding. Another 4,000 are sick from polluted water and contaminated food. Unable to cook, some in India are eating raw flour soaked in water. The especially bad monsoon flood season this year is blamed by some on climate change.
* Sudan has worst flooding in memory, surpassing 1988
Aid has been slow in coming to the hundreds of thousands of victims of Sudan flooding. Nearly 74,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed and more than 11,000 cattle have been lost. The flooding is worse than in 1988, when a million people had to flee their homes. Many say it’s the worst they can remember.
(Xtreme Weather Watch sources: PlanetArk.com, Greenwire)

Pardon my enthusiasm, but I love my new Prius
About a month ago we took the plunge. I have to give my husband, John, the credit. After months of on-and-off talk about getting a new car, he went online and found a dealer nearby who’d just gotten a shipment of 6 or 8 new Priuses. Two days later we went over, test drove one of the 3 that were left, turned in our Volvo and drove away in our brand new Prius.

It’s so cool. I love the little power button you press to turn it on (like on a computer or DVD player) and the tiny gearshift on the dashboard to put it in drive or reverse. And the key that isn’t a key. The car is totally quiet when you turn it on, and very roomy and comfortable, with a hatchback for easy stowing of groceries. But best of all is the display that shows the mileage you’re getting. It makes me turn down the air conditioning and keep the speed below 60 to see if I can eke out another 0.1 mpg.

We’ve found we can make the 60-mile round trip to see the grandkids in the suburbs at a rate of between 54-59 mpg, and that includes doing some errands and car-pooling around town while we’re there. In Chicago, though, it’s not getting great mileage – in the 30s or 40s for a series of very short trips. But we’ve only filled the gas tank twice since we got it, and we’ve gone nearly 1,200 miles (and have half a tank left). Even people who don’t think about the environment are impressed with how little gas it requires.

I don’t see a lot of Priuses around Chicago, though a friend visiting from California said they’re very popular there. I read that driving a Prius makes a statement. And I do feel there’s no need to have bumper stickers. The car is one big bumper sticker: Fight Global Warming.

Prius, the only car built from the ground up as a hybrid, was introduced in 1997 and has had 10 years of customer feedback to make improvements. It also gets the best gas mileage. Prius passed 1 million in sales in June and is the overwhelming leader in the class. Sales in the U.S. were up almost 94% the first 6 months of 2007, almost as much as all of 2006.

Toyota will add a less expensive Prius ($20,000) to its lineup for 2008 (current price is about $25,000). And it’s thinking about creating a Prius brand, with several different models.

I’m disappointed in Toyota, though. It lobbied with the Big 3 automakers against corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards in Congress. I have to think the company, which is expected to pass up General Motors soon as the world’s largest automaker, is worried it will lose its advantage if American companies are forced to start producing more efficient models.

Mileage on new cars not so good
All vehicles are going to see their mileage rating drop in 2008. Turns out the mpg the EPA slapped on all new cars has been bogus, and now the agency is adjusting numbers downward to account for the way real people drive – considering such things as air conditioning, sudden stops, a heavy foot on the gas and traveling at speeds above 50 mph.

The Toyoto Camry hybrid, for example, had been listed at 39 highway and 38 city. Under the new system it’s down to a more realistic 34 and 33 respectively. The Ford Escape hybrid is reduced from 37 combined to 32. A couple of non-hybrid examples: Honda Pilot 4WD and Volvo XC70 4WD were both at 19 combined. Now they’re at 17. You can check out other models at http://www.fueleconomy.gov. (click Find and Compare Cars) to see what kind of mileage you can expect from a hybrid or a regular car of your choice under the new, more realistic, system.

Looking to the future: hybrids, plug-ins and fuel cells
Despite auto companies’ resistance to changes imposed by government, most are planning to offer some new, more efficient models in the short run and experimenting with very different vehicles for the future. Last year, for the first time since 2002, cars outsold SUVs and pickup trucks, as consumers became more conscious of the high cost and environmental hazards of guzzling gas. Automakers prefer SUVs and trucks because they make a bigger profit on them. Nonetheless, they are facing up to change. Here are some recent announcements:

* General Motors will sell a hybrid GMC Yukon SUV later this year, with an estimated combined 20 mph. GM also plans to make hybrid versions of the Chevy Tahoe, Saturn Aura and Chevy Malibu.
* Porsche it will have a hybrid in about 3 years.
* Chrysler, which has lagged, is introducing hybrid engines in its Dodge Durango and Chrysler Aspen, which currently get 13 mpg in the city and 18 on the highway. The hybrid versions should get 18.2 and 22.5, respectively, the company says.
* Honda plans to create a new hybrid-only model to have the same cache as Prius. The company dropped its Accord and Insight hybrids, for lack of consumer interest. It gets good sales on its Civic hybrid, though.
* Nissan, which is running behind other Japanese makers, plans to launch a line of low-emissions cars.

Plug-ins
Hybrid electric-gasoline cars with bigger batteries that are recharged at night are in the testing phase, slowed down by the difficulty of coming up with a reliable lithium-ion battery for greater range.

* General Motors’ Volt plug-in should be ready by 2010, but rollout depends on developing a better battery. GM says Volt has a range of 40 miles without using gas.
* Toyota is road-testing a modified Prius plug-in that gets 73 mpg, but with the battery it’s using it has only a 7-mile range in its pure electric mode.
* Ford is road-testing plug-ins based on Escape and hopes they’ll be ready to sell in 5-10 years.

Widespread use of plug-ins could cut U.S. GHG emissions the equivalent of removing one-third of vehicles from the road, according to new research from the Electric Power Research Institute and Natural Resources Defense Council. Their middle scenario shows a reduction of 3-4 million barrels of oil per day but an increase of 7-8% in electricity use. Plug-ins could be introduced by 2010, and have full penetration by 2050, according to the study. NRDC said improved battery technology and cleaner electric plants are needed. Carbon capture and sequestration are needed for the full environmental benefit.

Electric cars
*India’s Reva Electric Cars is ready to mass-produce its zero-emission 2-door hatchback. The hope is to sell 3,000 this year and 30,000 next. It’s been test-marketed in India and Europe.
* Zap Electric Vehicle Co. plans to sell mini-cars (a cross between a compact car and a golf cart) to universities, local governments and companies that deliver. This 3-wheeler has a range of 25 miles. They’re working on a Zap X, with a range of 350 miles.

Hydrogen-powered fuel cells, etc.
* Ford is close to introducing hydrogen technology. In 3-5 years it
could have a zero-emission car. Problems for hydrogen include infrastructure and storage.
* GM has 2 prototype hydrogen-powered Sequel SUV fuel-cell vehicles, which set a world record of 300 miles in New York. The company said it will announce by year’s end if this car is feasible. Meanwhile it will test a Chevy Equinox SUV with fuel cells on 100 consumers later this year.
* Honda has a fuel-cell model it will test on the streets of Japan and the U.S. next year. The range is 270 miles, but like other prototypes it’s extremely expensive -- $1.5 million.
* Smart Cars will introduce its tiny 2-door Smartfortwo in the U.S. next year. It gets 40 mpg, but has an unproved safety record on roads where it’s up against many SUVs.
* China unveiled prototype hybrids, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell cars at the Shanghai Auto Show in April.

Stay tuned for new developments. And meanwhile, if you rent a car, ask for a hybrid, or at least a highly fuel-efficient car, to drive up demand. Or try I-GO Car Sharing in Chicago at http://www.igocars.com or ZipCar at http://www.zipcar.com in 10 cities around the country. Both specialize in environmentally friendly rentals by the day or for extended times.
(Sources: Greenwire, PlanetArk.com, Associated Press, Chicago Sun-Times, Sierra magazine)


News briefs

1. Asia-Pacific draft asks for voluntary, not binding GHG goals
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries will be asked in September to support “aspirational goals” of reducing GHG intensity 25% by 2030, according to a draft obtained last week by the Sydney Morning Herald. “Intensity” is related to growth of the economy and may not mean real reductions. The 21 APEC countries, which include the U.S. and Russia, are expected to announce the agreement at the end of their meeting in Sydney Sept. 7-9. The goals are regional and there won’t be targets for individual countries, according to the draft. It sets up a network to share technology, promotes investment in renewable sources, and advocates preservation of forests as carbon sinks. Environmentalists said this won’t do. GHG goals must be real, firm and legally binding. (Sources: PlanetArk.com, E&E News PM)

2. Antarctic melting faster than predicted by UN climate panel
With both Antarctic and Greenland ice thawing faster than expected, sea levels could rise 3 feet or more by the end of the century, some climate experts say. Chris Rapley, outgoing head of the British Antarctic Survey, told Reuters, “The realistic view is nearer 1 meter (3 feet) than the 40 cm” (15.75 inches) predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In a worst-case scenario, seas could rise 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100, but that is extremely unlikely, he said. Rapley was at a climate seminar in Ny Alesund, Norway, on an Arctic island where glaciers are in fast retreat. (Source: Reuters)

3. Economic reward needed to keep tropical forests intact
Countries that have kept all or most of their tropical forests need to be able to sell carbon credits based on keeping those forests, a recent study says. While carbon-trading systems give credit for planting new trees, they do nothing for those who avoid cutting them down. Yet, deforestation contributes around 20% of the carbon emissions that cause Global Warming. As the international community debates carbon trading for a successor agreement when Kyoto expires in 2012, preserving forests must be rewarded, the study says. Countries with most of their tropical forests intact are Panama, Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Peru, Belize, Gabon, Guyana, Suriname, Bhutan, Zambia and French Guiana. (Source: Reuters)

4. PG&E to buy solar -- it's amazing, it's the mirrors
Pacific Gas & Electric will purchase 550 megawatts of solar energy from a plant under construction in the Mojave Desert. The energy will be created by mirrors that cover 9 square miles. They will focus sunlight on a fluid-filled pipe, heating it up to 750 degrees to produce steam. The plant is expected to be operational by 2011 or 2012. (Source: Greenwire)


Congressional round-up

Who got energy industry donations this year? Hillary, for one
In the first half of 2007, electric utilities, oil companies, automakers and mining interests contributed nearly $4 million to lawmakers on key House and Senate committees dealing with climate change, according to Federal Election Commission records. Members of the House Energy Committee got a total of $1.5 million, while those on the Senate Environment Committee totaled $1.4 million and Senate Energy Committee members got $896,415 total. Those who favored industry or did not have a strong position on Global Warming legislation got the most, while environmental advocates like Reps. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) got the least: $2,000 and $1,000 respectively. Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) only got $250. On the House Energy Committee, Rick Boucher (D-Va.), chair of the subcommittee on energy and air quality, led with $123,422. Boucher represents a coal-mining district. Next was Rep. Joe Barton (R-Tex.) with $84,850. Third was Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.) with $81,000, mostly from power companies. On the Senate committees on Environment and Energy, top money went to presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), $647,297; followed by James (“Global Warming is a hoax”) Inhofe (R-Okla.), $233,800; Pete Domenici (R-N.M.), $185,859; Max Baucus (D-Mont.), $174,655; Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), $143,550; and Mary Landrieu (D-La.), $135,839; all of whom are up for re-election in 2008. (Source: Greenwire)


Xtreme weather watch

* Hurricane Dean was a Category 5 storm when it hit the Yucatan Tuesday. It was the most powerful Atlantic storm to hit land since 1988, with winds of more than 165 mph that tore off roofs, flooded streets and downed trees and power lines. The storm diminished in strength as it moved across Mexico. (NY Times)

* Firefighters gave up trying to quell fires in three national forests in Idaho last week, as the governor declared a state of emergency. Officials expect the fires to burn until snow hits the mountains, which could be awhile. In California, the third-largest wildfire in modern state history swept through Los Padres National Forest. “The fuel conditions are extreme,” a U.S. Fire Service official told Associated Press. (AP, NY Times)

* Flooding caused 5 Midwest governors to declare states of emergency last week, in Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Illinois and Wisconsin. The National Weather Service in LaCrosse, Wis., said August was already the wettest month in the city’s history, with 12.22 inches of rain. Rainfall shattered records in parts of Minnesota as well. In northern Ohio some downtown areas were under water, and in the Chicago area fierce storms knocked out power for 600,000 and 36,000 trees were reported down. (NY Times, Chicago Sun-Times)

* 180 miners were trapped in flooded coalmines in China’s Shandong province, after a river broke through a levy last weekend. According to Xinhua news agency, 584 miners escaped from one mine, but efforts to rescue 172 others were blocked by continued flooding. Several days later, officials said there was no hope of a rescue. In another mine nearby, 9 miners were trapped. China has had severe rains and flooding for weeks. (Reuters, NYTimes)


Do something

Leonardo DiCaprio’s Global Warming film, “The 11th Hour” opened this week in many cities around the country. To see where it’s playing, go to
http://www.11thhouraction.com. You can also invite friends or post comments. The earlier you see the film the better, as that will help get it into more theaters.

Tell your senators and rep to support the strongest Global Warming bills introduced in Washington, the Sanders-Boxer bill (S309) and Waxman bill (H1590). Send the message that you don’t want a watered-down compromise just because industry lobbyists are pushing for it. Learn more about the two bills, find out who the co-sponsors are, and take action on the Physicians for Social Responsibility Web site, http://www.psr.org. Click Take Action and go to the Global Pollution Reduction Act (S309) and the Safe Climate Act (HR1590) to send your message.

Go to a Save Mass Transit rally in Chicago, at 11:30 a.m., Tuesday, Aug. 28. Join Mayor Daley, other elected officials and environmentalists in protesting the Governor’s budget, which cuts CTA money, meaning service cuts and higher fares. We need more mass transit in this world, not less.

News extra

1. Bush sees new technology as solution to Global Warming
New technology, paid for by rapid economic growth, is the way to reduce greenhouse gases, the Bush administration said in advance of its summit next month with other major polluting countries. The administration opposes mandatory caps on emissions, saying they would stifle growth. In China following a trip to the Asia Pacific summit in Australia, Bush environment advisor James Connaughton said he sees a consensus growing around the U.S. view. Without a growing economy, you don’t have resources to pay for new technology, he said. It took the U.S. less than 30 years, Connaughton said, “to implement strong environmental policies. China can do it in less than 30 years.” We have strong environmental policies? Could have fooled me. (Source: PlanetArk.com)

2. Conservative talk shows, bloggers exploit minor NASA error
Talk show host Rush Limbaugh and the conservative blogosphere jumped all over a Canadian blogger's discovery that NASA made an error figuring average U.S. temperatures for the past 6 years. As a result of the catch, and some adjustments by NASA, the "dust bowl year" of 1934 has now displaced 1998 as the hottest in the U.S., by a hair, and 4 of the 10 hottest years are in the ‘30s, reducing the number in the past decade to 3. Some skeptics are pointing to this error as proof Global Warming isn't a problem. But even the blogger, skeptic Stephen McIntyre, calls it a “micro-change,” according to the Toronto Star, and “not necessarily material to climate policy.” The impact of the adjustment on global temperature records is insignificant, only one one-thousandth of a degree. Worldwide, 1998 and 2005 tie for the hottest year. Let's not forget this is a global problem, not just a U.S. one. (Sources: Washington Post, Toronto Star, Greenwire, Bloomberg, theregister.co.uk and wired science.)

3. Arctic sea ice hits record low with a month of melting to go
With another month of melt season still ahead, artic sea ice, as observed by satellite, showed record shrinkage last week. "Today is a historic day," Mark Serreze, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said Friday. He called the record melting “very strong evidence we are starting to see the effect of greenhouse warming.” Sea ice was especially low in the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska and in East Siberia. Fast-melting summer sea ice in the Arctic could affect rain patterns and temperatures across the U.S, according to University of Colorado researcher Sheldon Drobot, as well as open the Northwest Passage by 2020 or 2025 to shipping between the Atlantic and Pacific. (Sources: AP, Greenwire)

4. Rainforest destruction rate in Amazon drops by a third
The rate of deforestation in the world’s largest rainforest dropped to an estimated 3,707 sq. mi. during the past 12 months, down from 5,417 sq. mi. the year before. The all-time high, in 2004, was 10,590 sq. mi. Brazilian Environment minister Marina Silva called the reduction “a great achievement for Brazilian society.” Officials attributed the drop to better policing of illegal logging, economic development projects that preserve forests, and improved land-ownership certification. But environmentalists are concerned that a rise in grain prices could spur a new surge in clearing trees for farmland. (Sources: PlanetArk.com, Greenwire)

5. NYC and 4 other cities get grants to ease traffic congestion
New York City has won a $354.5 million U.S. Dept. of Transportation grant to implement its congestion-pricing plan. Seattle, Miami, Minneapolis and San Francisco also got DOT grants to fight traffic congestion. NYC’s award is the largest and is contingent on winning state legislature approval. The money will be used to implement a plan to charge cars and trucks entering Manhattan south of 86th Street. A similar charge in London has cut traffic and CO2 emissions. The NYC grant also will fund new bus facilities, improved traffic signals and increased ferry service. The other cities have plans to create toll systems that will vary with the number of people in the car and the time of day they travel. (Sources: E&E News PM)

6. States back California plea for EPA waiver on auto emissions
The National Conference of State Legislators voted 40-8 to urge the EPA to “act immediately” to approve California’s request for a waiver to start cutting tailpipe emissions. California has been waiting a year and a half for an answer and 12 other states that adopted California’s standards are watching to see what happens. The EPA has said it will give an answer at the end of the year. The states also agreed that federal law should not pre-empt states’ GHG mitigation laws. Voting no on the waiver were: Georgia, Kentucky, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Utah and Wyoming. (Source: E&E News PM)

7. 'An Inconvenient Truth' coming to Chicago’s Grant Park
The Illinois Science Council and Chicago Department of Environment will present a free screening of Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” in Grant Park’s Butler Field (on Monroe between Columbus and Lake Shore) Wednesday evening, Aug. 22, at sundown. Electricity for the film will come from biodeisel fuel and solar power. A complimentary bike valet service will be provided. Co-sponsors include the Illinois Dept. of Commerce and Economic Opportunity, Chicago Climate Exchange, NBC5, WTMX 101.9FM and WLIV 100.3FM. No pets allowed. (Source: Illinois Science Council)

8. Automakers plan rallies against tough CAFE standards
The Big 3 auto companies reportedly were planning rallies in Chicago and St. Louis last week, saying workers’ jobs were at stake and local plants might close if tough fuel-economy standards were implemented. They planned to have their largest models there, with owners saying why SUVs are essential to their lives. Autoworkers, who are being told their jobs are threatened, have been circulating petitions to take to local congressional offices, supporting the weak Hill-Terry fuel-economy bill. Hill-Terry calls for separate schedules for cars and light trucks (SUVs), to reach a combined standard of 32 mpg by 2022. This bill, which was withdrawn in the House, is weaker than the Senate-passed standard of 35 mpg by 2020 that treats cars and SUVs the same. (Editor’s note: I haven’t seen any coverage of this rally in Chicago, have any of you?) (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

* Japan hit an all-time high temperature Thursday, 106 degrees Fahrenheit in central regions. A reported 33 people died from the heat, which also bent train rails. The previous record was set in 1933.
* Unprecedented torrential rains in North Korea have left up to 300,000 people homeless, hundreds dead and missing, and an agricultural disaster for a country that already has trouble feeding its people. Railroads and roads were swept away by landslides and power substations destroyed by the massive floods. More than 6,000 Red Cross volunteers helped with evacuation and relief, as the country sought aid from the international community.
* In flooded Bangladesh, more than 53,000 were suffering from diarrhea after eating bad food and drinking impure water. A health center in the capital reported 1,100 new patients last Tuesday, the highest single-day admission in history. Low-lying Bangladesh is expected to be one of the first countries inundated when oceans rise due to Global Warming.
* The heat wave across the southern U.S. caused power and health problems last week. The Tennessee Valley Authority announced record power use the past two weeks and had to shut down a reactor in Alabama because water for cooling from the Tennessee River averaged 90 degrees over a 24-hour period. Hospitals said after 5-6 days of high heat, they were seeing many cases of dehydration.
* In dozens of U.S. cities, temperatures hit 100 degrees or more during the past week, some of them for multiple days. In the triple digits were: Atlanta, Baton Rouge, Birmingham, Charleston, Charlotte, Chattanooga, Columbia (Mo.), Columbia (S.C.), Dallas-Ft. Worth, Greenville (S.C.), Houston, Jackson, Kansas City, Knoxville, Las Vegas, Lexington, Little Rock, Louisville, Memphis, Nashville, Oklahoma City, Phoenix, Raleigh, Shreveport, St. Louis, Tucson, Tulsa, Waco and Wichita. (And that’s only the cities listed on the NY Times weather page!) In Tulsa, the PGA championship golf tournament last weekend was the first-ever played completely in 100-degree weather.
(Xtreme weather sources: PlanetArk.com, Greenwire, NY Times)

Is nuclear ‘renaissance’ a solution to Global Warming?
Global Warming and pressure to meet Kyoto goals have spurred the world to seek carbon-free energy sources. Some say any solution must have nuclear in the mix. So after a 20-year hiatus in most countries following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, nuclear energy seems to be back on the table.

Worldwide, 30 plants are under construction, while 74 are planned and 182 proposed. In the U.S., where 20% of the energy now comes from nukes, the race is on to build the first reactor in decades. The Nuclear Energy Institute expects 17 new reactors to start construction here in the next 6 years.

Just days before an earthquake in Japan damaged the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant, the Japanese government had announced a public-private partnership to develop next-generation nuclear reactors that would produce 40% less radioactive waste.

Japan gets nearly a third of its power from nukes and needs to replace 20 aging reactors by 2030. Worldwide, there are 437 reactors that will soon need replacing.

On top of that, energy demand is expected to rise about 50% in the next 25 years. So the dilemma is three-fold.
• What to do about replacing aging nuclear plants?
• Should more nuclear be used to replace carbon-spewing coal plants?
• And how can we meet additional energy needs without increasing CO2 emissions?

Is nuclear energy worth the risk of accidents, terrorism and disposal problems because it is carbon-free?

Pro-nuclear
Some countries say it is. Those who support nuclear energy says it’s much cleaner than coal and that the new plants will be safer and more efficient.

Top on the list is France, which gets 78% of its power from nukes and has an accident-free record at its 59 plants. India – with new support from the U.S. government – plans to start a huge 10,000-megawatt plant next year. And Australia, with its large uranium reserves, will begin building reactors.

Vietnam expects to finish the first of 4 reactors in 2015. Indonesia, despite concerns about earthquakes (there was one last week), plans for the first of 4-6 plants to come online in 2016.

Europe now gets 32% of its energy from nuclear and in April the G7 threw its support behind nukes as one solution to Global Warming.

And in the wake of Iran’s quest for nuclear energy, about a dozen Middle East countries – including Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – have asked the International Atomic Energy Agency to help them start nuclear programs. Some fear this could start a nuclear-arms race in the area.

Russia recently began construction on the first of at least 7 floating nuclear power plants. China, which gets only 2% of its energy from its 11 reactors, has 4 more under construction, 23 in the planning stage and 54 proposed. Finland is building plants, and the Dutch recently reversed a decision to phase out their plants.

In the U.S., where nuclear is controversial, the 2005 Energy Policy Act offered billions in tax incentives and loan guarantees to spur nuclear development. Vice President Cheney’s Energy Task Force called for 1,300-1,900 new power plants, many of them nuclear. Several states provide significant power from nukes, including Connecticut (45%) and Virginia (30%). The U.S. has 103 reactors and all will need replacing by mid-century.

Anti-nuclear
Arguments against nuclear energy include the threat of weapons proliferation and terrorist attacks, disposal of the radioactive waste, and cost – about $4 billion per plant. Safety violations and lack of evacuation plans at existing plants are a concern, as are comments from guards about their inability to defend a plant against attack. The Union of Concerned Scientists has recorded 51 cases at 41 plants where reactors had to be shut down for more than a year.

Waste storage is a critical issue. The Nevada permanent storage site at Yucca Mountain has been put on hold with Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) as majority leader, and likely won’t be usable until at least 2017, if ever. Then there’s the concern about transporting all the waste.

Americans are still wary of nuclear energy. A recent poll by MIT showed 54% strongly oppose having a nuclear power plant within 25 miles of their home and a similar number think it is harmful to the environment. Only 28% believe radioactive waste can be safely stored indefinitely.

Anti-nuclear countries include Germany and Sweden, which have vowed to phase out their nuclear plants. (In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel, a physicist, disagrees with her government’s stance, calling the phase-out “disastrous” for German efforts to curb CO2.)

Belgium and Spain have decided not to build and South Korea has slowed its efforts. The state of California renewed its position against nukes this year, though a group of businesspeople there want to put the issue on the ballot.

How practical is it?
With the industry pretty much in mothballs for the 20 years since Chernobyl, a scarcity of uranium, parts and trained workers would hamper a ramp-up of nuclear power. It also takes a very long time to build one.

Some studies, including one from the Council on Foreign Relations, suggest it could take 50 years to make a dent in curtailing GHG emissions with nuclear power. The Oxford Research Group said the world would need to construct 3,000 reactors, or 1 a week for the next 60 years, to make a difference, and others have made similar estimates.

International monitoring
The Foreign Relations Council study said an international agreement is needed to ensure safe and secure practices and storage of nuclear waste.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, responsible for monitoring 900 nuclear sites in 145 countries, recently told Congress it doesn’t have enough money in its $130 million budget to adequately safeguard the world’s nuclear materials. Indiana Sens. Richard Lugar (R) and Evan Bayh (D) proposed giving IAEA another $10 million to upgrade its increasingly obsolete laboratory in Austria.

Bayh and Lugar’s bill (S. 1138) also calls for an international fuel bank that would be a reliable and secure source of nuclear fuel, and includes incentives for non-nuclear countries not to develop their own enrichment and reprocessing plants (which could be used for weapons). A similar strategy is in President Bush’s Global Nuclear Energy Partnership concept. Expect to hear a lot more about international monitoring and cooperation if nuclear energy is on the rise again, as it appears to be.

(Sources: PlanetArk.com, Greenwire, E&E Daily, Christian Science Monitor, International Herald Tribune, Los Angeles Times, E Magazine, U.S. Dept. of Energy)


News briefs

1. Natural disasters increasing rapidly all around the world
The number of natural disasters doubled between 2004-2006, from 200 a year up to 400, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Floods alone were up from 60 to 100 in that period, and so far this year 70 serious floods have been recorded. Flooding has affected 500 million people and is straining relief efforts. Above-average heatwaves have occurred on 4 continents, in Africa, Asia, Europe and South America. The organization also found that global temperatures in January and April were the highest ever recorded, topping the average by 3.4 degrees F in January and 2.47 degrees in April. Other researchers studying Western Europe found the average length of a heat wave there has risen from 1.5 days to 3 days since 1880, and that the number of extremely hot days has tripled. (Source: PlanetArk, NY Times)

2. Don’t be lulled by lack of hurricane activity so far this year
It could just be the calm before the storms. With little tropical storm activity in the Atlantic so far this summer, the U.S. Climate Protection Center revised its forecast last week, predicting 9 hurricanes this season – down 1 from their prediction last May. This is still well above the average of 5.9. Forecasters said 3-5 of those storms are likely to become major hurricanes, with winds exceeding 110 mph. August-October is the peak season and the forecasters said those in hurricane-prone areas should keep up their guard. (Source: E&E PM)

3. New 10-year temperature forecast shows rise after 2009
Global temperatures will likely stabilize for the next two years, counteracted by natural causes, before temperatures rise sharply again at the end of the decade, British researchers said this week in the journal Science. Using computer models, the researchers, from the Met Office in Exeter, England, plotted out likely temperatures for the next 10 years. After 2010, each year has a 50% chance of exceeding the record hot year of 1998, they said, and after 2014 the odds of record-setting temperatures will be even greater. The two-year stall is expected as a result of cooling in the Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean over the past two years. A 10-year prediction should be more useful than the 50- or 100-year forecasts provided by most scientists and should help planners and emergency responders better prepare, the study authors said. (Sources: The Guardian, CNBC)

4. Illinois legislature OK’s RES and energy efficiency standards
At the end of July, in the midst of the flurry of activity in Washington, the Illinois General Assembly approved a Renewable Electricity Standard of 25% by 2025 and an Energy Efficiency Performance Standard calling for a 2% reduction in energy demand by 2015. The governor is expected to sign both bills. Still under consideration, as state leaders got bogged down in a budget fight, were the Illinois Clean Car Act (HB 3424), which would adopt California’s strict standards for tailpipe emissions, and the Energy Efficiency Building Act (SB 526). (Sources: Environmental Law and Policy Center, Illinois League of Conservation Voters)

5. Court halts drilling in Arctic waters to assess impact
As international interest in Arctic oil peaks, and Russia plants a flag at the North Pole, an Appeals Court has blocked Shell Oil Co. from drilling offshore from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, pending a review of whether it will endanger whales and other animals. The area is home to 10% of the remaining polar bears. A hearing is set for Aug. 14. “It would take just one spill on the icebound Beaufort Sea that borders the Refuge to create a perpetual toxic waste site that could never be cleaned up – because the oil industry has no proven method for cleaning up oil in icy water,” warned Natural Resources Defense Council senior attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a letter to supporters. Shell says it has studied the impact on animals and developed a plan to respond to spills. (Sources: Bloomberg, NRDC)


Congressional round-up

*Climate bills face tough time in Conference, then likely veto
In late September and October, the climate bills recently passed by the Senate and House will have a tough go of it in the House-Senate Conference, with opponents and lobbyists continuing to hammer away on contentious points. The corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard of 35 mpg by 2020, passed by the Senate, never made it to a vote in the House because of objections from the auto industry, many Republicans and Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.) The Renewable Electricity Standard, calling for utilities to produce 15% of their power from renewable sources by 2020, made it through the House but was blocked in the Senate, after fierce lobbying by the utility industry and southeastern states concerned that they don’t have access to enough renewable resources. The energy tax bill also passed in just one chamber, the House, and is fiercely opposed by the oil and gas industries and “oil patch” Democrats. Once the Conference agrees, the new bills will have to be accepted by both chambers. Finally, they will go to the president, who is likely to veto them because they don’t increase domestic oil and gas production. Nonetheless, advocates will be working hard to get strong but palatable bills through the Conference committee. (E&E Daily, Greenwire)

*Lieberman, Warner unveil plan to cut GHG 70% by 2050
Before the recess, Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.) previewed a “compromise” economy-wide plan to cut Global Warming they will introduce in the fall. It requires electric utilities, heavy manufacturers, petroleum refiners and importers to limit GHG to 2005 levels by 2012, then cut them 10% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. The Senators offer a cap-and-trade system that would initially give away more than half the credits to industries most impacted by the new requirements, with another 24% to be auctioned. Revenue from the auctions would go for alternative power sources, carbon capture, new transportation technologies and adaptation to climate change. Industry would be able to meet 15% of its obligations through offsets, and U.S. trading partners would have to buy credits for carbon-intensive exports. Environment Committee Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) called it “an excellent starting point.” (Greenwire)

*Dingell takes his energy tax views on the road during break
Powerful House Energy Chair John Dingell (D-Mich.) has been talking to constituents about his plan to introduce a gasoline tax of up to 50 cents and a “stiff” tax on carbon in an effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions. He spoke at two town meetings, in Ann Arbor and Dearborn, last week. He also advocated removing the mortgage deduction on “McMansions,” homes of over 3,000 sq. ft., and increasing funds for low-income energy assistance. Dingell will play a critical role in crafting a House bill to cut GHG emissions this fall. Ford CEO Alan Mulally said this week he favors Dingell’s idea of a gasoline tax over CAFE standards. (Source: Greenwire)


Xtreme weather watch

*10 million people in India, Nepal and Bangladesh have been left homeless and are increasingly desperate as they face food shortages and disease. More than 455 have died in the annual floods, which are the worst in living memory in some areas. (PlanetArk)
*About a half-million people in Sudan have been flood victims in the past month, according to the U.N. The earlier and heavier than usual rains caused cresting rivers and flash floods. Many in Sudan lose their homes to flooding each year, but this was the worst in memory. (PlanetArk)
*Nearly 1,000 Chinese were dead or missing in disasters last month. Like other parts of Asia, China experienced intense rain and floods, while some parts of the country suffered severe drought. In July alone, a reported 464,000 homes and other buildings were destroyed, 3.8 million people were evacuated, and 7.5 million faced water shortages. (PlanetArk)
*Northern Greece was hit by heavy rains last week, resulting in flooding and power outages in the middle of an unusually hot summer. Greece has seen two heat waves this summer, with temperatures up to 115F, and has had thousands of forest fires, some suspected arson by unscrupulous developers wanting to build on wooded land. (PlanetArk)
*The first half of 2007 in Texas has been the wettest on record, with rainfall of 27.11 inches for January-July, compared with an average of 16.21, according to the National Weather Service. Serious flooding resulted. The good news? It ended a 10-year drought. (Greenwire)
*South Africa’s first substantial snowstorm in more than 25 years dumped about 10 inches in some regions in June (which is winter there). Meanwhile, Chile, having its coldest winter in 30 years, had snow in its wine region for the first time in a half-century. (CNN, PlanetArk)


Do something

Feeling frustrated by the slow progress of our government in acting against Global Warming – the fact that bills passed this session could end up being vetoed by the President? You can express your impatience and concern by joining in a one-day fast Sept. 4, the day Congress returns to Washington. Check it out at http://www.climateemergency.org.