Weekly angst

Mass transit must expand; Chicago running in reverse
The “city that works,” has a problem. The state that doesn’t work right now (an intra-party feud I won’t get into) hasn’t come up with the money to keep mass transit running, so we are facing a so-called “doomsday scenario” Nov. 4, with plans to eliminate 39 bus routes and raise prices from $2 to $3 or more. And that will be followed by a double-dare doomsday in January with even more cuts and fare increases, if state leaders can’t get their act together.

This at a time when a new report with the cumbersome name “Public Transportation’s Contribution to U.S. Greenhouse Gas Reduction” tells us we should be increasing mass transit.

Greenhouse gases from transportation make up about one-third of the total emitted in the U.S.

Two-car households could cut their carbon footprint 30% by eliminating one car and using public transit instead, the report says. They could save more that way than by insulating their home and adjusting their thermostat (though they should do both).

Transportation emissions in 2005 were 6.9 million tons less than they would have been if everyone used private cars, the report says. Of that, 3 million tons was saved because of the additional traffic congestion and delays that were prevented. A single person saves 2 metric tons a year by using public transit.

Other benefits
Additional benefits of public transportation include less need for parking, both on- and off-street; more efficient use of roads; shorter commute times; and enabling higher-density land use, which leads to fewer miles traveled, the report says.

In the period 1990-2004, vehicle emissions grew 29%. SUVs and light trucks grew the most, with emissions up 64%, compared with 1.8% for cars.

Daily commuting time in cars has increased 7.5% per year, largely because of congestion, causing stress to workers and their families, as well as wasted gas. Nationwide, 78% of commuters drive to work alone, though that figure varies state-to-state. In New York it’s 56%, in Michigan 85%.

What can be done?
Even with increased corporate auto fuel economy (CAFE) standards (higher mpg), emissions from transportation won’t decline in the future because of the continuing increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). VMT closely tracks GDP in the U.S., not to mention the coming increase in cars in developing countries like China.

Gas prices do seem to make a difference. Part of the reason for increased driving in recent decades was a decline in gasoline prices after 1975. But in May this year, prices hit a new high of $3.26/gallon, so that may slow things down.

King County in Washington state is a paragon of mass transit, according to the report. It has plans to switch to biodiesel and expects to reduce CO2 emission by 22,000 metric tons. It also plans to increase ridership significantly. Other good examples are Grand Rapids, Mich., and New York City. The latter is switching buses to compressed natural gas and hybrids. (Last week at LaGuardia Airport I saw two hybrid buses and a hybrid cab in the course of a few minutes). NY hopes to have 40% hybrid buses by 2010.

Increasing mass transit ridership is the key to reducing emissions and at the same time cutting traffic congestion. In NYC, the MTA increased ridership 8.5% on subways between 2000-2006. Cities can stimulate additional mass transit use by making less parking available, charging fees to enter the downtown and collecting tolls, the report concludes.

Meanwhile, in Chicago we’re going the opposite direction. If you live in Illinois, tell your elected reps – including the governor – to get on the ball and fund the CTA. NOW. Go to http://www.savechicagotransit.com.

Congressional round-up

• Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) blocked a formal Conference Committee on the energy bill last week, because she objected to the plan to take billions in tax breaks from the oil companies and give them to clean energy. Negotiations continued informally, however, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said she hopes to wind things up before the Nov. 16 recess and have a vote either that week or Dec. 3.
• Citigroup called the fuel economy (CAFE) standards in the Senate-passed energy bill “tough but attainable” in a report last week. Auto lobbyists are asking for a weaker version, saying they can’t attain the standards in the Senate bill.
• Senate Environment Chair Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) pushed to move along the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade bill quickly, in the hope it would be out of committee when she leads a Congressional delegation to Bali for international talks in December. She doesn’t want the Bush administration to be the only ones representing the U.S. in these important negotiations about a post-Kyoto agreement, and she would like to be able to show some progress.
• Lieberman-Warner picked up an important vote in subcommittee when Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) offered his support. It’s the first time Baucus has been in favor of cap-and-trade and his vote is a key one. Now they need one more, either from the left or from the right.
(Sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM, Sierra Club)

Take action

Tell your Senators in Washington to support a strong energy bill. Go to the Environmental Law and Policy Center’s Web site at: http://actionnetwork.org/campaign/federal_clean_energy_bill. and add your name.

This Saturday is Climate Action Day across the country. Join a Step It Up action near where you live. Get the details at http://www.StepItUp2007.org.

News in brief

CO2 going into atmosphere 35% faster, as land and sea absorb less
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere grew 35% faster than predicted from 2000-2006, a new British-Australian study reveals. While some of the speed-up is caused by rapid global economic growth, half the unexpected increase is due to less absorption of CO2 by the land and oceans, likely because of changing wind patterns and droughts, the authors found. The study, published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was based on data collected by the UN and NOAA. A second study, by the University of East Anglia, showed the uptake of CO2 in the North Atlantic dropped by half from the mid-90s to the period 2000-2005. (Source: Greenwire, BBC)

Get ready for a world with less oil, many experts caution
Some say worldwide oil production has peaked; others say it will do so soon. In either case, the impact on economies and lifestyles will be extreme. A German study by Energy Watch, a think tank with ties to the Green Party, says oil peaked in 2006 and now will go down 7% a year, falling more than 50% by 2030. The Editor of Petroleum Review, Chris Skrebowski, sees the peak coming in 2010 or 2011. Energy Watch gave its report recently at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil-USA conference. There, some of the talk was about “peak exports,” with predictions that oil-producing countries will soon hold back more for themselves, including for future generations. Meanwhile, the oil industry glosses over such dire predictions and most of the public is unaware. How will the impending energy gap be filled? Energy Watch says it will be hard to produce enough alternative fuel fast enough and gas pumps will run dry. Others say the answer is in Canada’s vast tar sand deposits and coal-to-liquid, both of which are ecologically dirty. (Sources: PlanetArk, The Guardian, Falls Church News-Press)

Global demand seen for more smaller, cheaper cars
Automobile companies are increasingly developing smaller, low-cost cars, as they see global demand for them rising 30% by 2013. While gasoline prices are a factor, most of the growth will be in developing countries where first-time buyers want small, inexpensive cars. SUV growth is seen as dropping 4% in that time. Toyota has said it may have a $7,000 car by 2010. Electric cars would work well in France, the company says, because 80% of electricity comes from nuclear power. But in China electricity comes from coal, so electric cars won’t help much with greenhouse gases. Mazda research is focused on hydrogen as a fuel. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

Whether the recent California fires are the result of climate change is in some dispute. Some of the causes had nothing to do with Global Warming – increased building in wooded areas, the Forest Service’s habit of putting out fires too fast and leaving underbrush as fuel, and of course the notorious Santa Ana winds. But the California fires, like other mega-fires of the past few years that are much bigger and hotter and harder to fight, took place in an environment that had:
• An average yearly temperature increase of 1 degree F in the West.
• A fire season that is now 78 days longer than in the late ‘80s, due to early spring melt and runoff.
• 9 fewer inches of rain this year than normal.
• Triple-digit summer temperatures.
(Christian Science Monitor, CBS 60 Minutes)

Georgia’s dispute with Alabama and Florida over how much water should be released from Lake Lanier, Atlanta’s main source of drinking water, is heating up. All three states have appealed to the president – Georgia to cut the flow and the other two states to keep it as usual. Florida says a cutback will damage fisheries and the oyster/shellfish business in the Panhandle, while Georgia is worried Atlanta won’t have enough to drink (though Macon has offered to truck some in for a price). The three states have squabbled over water rights since the early ‘90s, but the extreme drought facing them all has pumped up the volume. (Greenwire)

Meanwhile, Georgia’s weather forecast for next year isn’t very encouraging. The state climatologist said last week it will be drier and hotter in 2008, though how much so will depend on the strength of La Niña. With less rain than normal, the record drought now troubling the northern part of the state is likely to last into spring and summer, David Stooksbury said. (Greenwire)

North and South Carolina, as well as Tennessee, are affected by drought as well. In S.C., the town of Rock Spring has been dry for a month, with pickups bringing in water to keep the cattle alive. A Baptist minister has even put baptisms on hold. In N.C., the governor has asked for a voluntary cut of 50% in consumption until month’s end, to see how much conservation they can accomplish voluntarily. (Greenwire)

Autumn leaves are duller now in New England, where fall colors brought 3.4 million people to Vermont in 2005. “It’s nothing like it used to be,” said U. of Vermont biologist Tom Vogelmann, because autumn is too warm now for rich, vibrant colors. Cold nights are needed to stem the flow of water to the leaves, and warmth has brought fungus to attack the usually dazzling red and sugar maples. Of course, the tourism industry is slow to admit the problem. Just wait, they say, and come in late October, rather than the second week, which used to be the peak. (Associated Press)