Flooding in Brazil, hailstorm in China

Xtreme Weather Watch: Unusually strong rains in Brazil have resulted in flooding that killed at least 34 and left close to 200,000 homeless. Livestock and crops were destroyed. Officials fear an onset of dengue fever as floods retreat leaving pools of water where mosquitoes will breed. (PlanetArk)

A freak half-hour hailstorm in Central China, with 60 mph wind gusts, has killed 5, injured at least 66, and destroyed more than 4,600 homes in central China. (PlanetArk)

Despite cold start, 2008 could be one of warmest years ever, because of global warming

(Photo of skier in Norway from Flickr and photographer Marika)

Xtreme Weather: The deniers are giddily blogging up a storm about the cold, snowy winter, believing it proves global warming is a hoax. But word from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (which supplies data to the UN) is that this year could be one of the 10 warmest on record. Once La Niña, the cooling of the Pacific, gets behind us, temperatures could turn nice and toasty, like they did in 1998 and 2005, two of the hottest years. They too started off cold. There was plenty of snow this winter, making skiers happy, but burying China with the worst winter storms in a century and dropping rare snowflakes on Florida, Iraq and Greece. Despite deep snow, Norway had its third warmest winter, and Finland the warmest on record. Predictions before the year began were for the year to be similar to last year, because La Niña would counteract some of the warming trend. But don’t be surprise if we have a hot summer. (Reuters)

Worldwide, the UN predicts a 2008 cooler than 2007. See
the Daily Green .

Sun shines on England

(Photo from Flickr and photographer Andy J. Crowder )

Xtreme weather watch: Known for being foggy and rainy, Britain just had the sunniest February ever recorded. Birds are nesting, flowers blooming and other signs of spring have been evident for some time. See Planet Ark.

Etc.: Record tornadoes in Jan. and Feb. High of 368 in U.S. beats 243 in 1999. See The Daily Green

Snowy weather kills Pashmina goats in Himalayas. Starvation a result of heavy snows in India. See Planet Ark

Northern Europe has warm winter. Record-breaking temperatures thwart winter activities. See Tree Hugger

Dust storms grow in American West

(Photo from Flickr and photographer michelangelo_mi)

Xtreme weather watch: A big increase in dust storms in the American West over the past 150 years is linked to human activity -- including a surge in settlers, cattle ranching and industry, a new study found. Researchers made their discovery by digging down to sediment in two lakes. The dust adds to the impact of global warming on the snowpack melt, and is helping to cause a much earlier spring melt in the San Juan mountains, researchers said. (PlanetArk)

China faces water shortage for Olympics, future forest fires
China, beset by severe drought in the north is worried about having enough water for the Olympics this summer. Reservoirs that supply water to Beijing’s 16 million people are dangerously low. The country ironically also is having severe cold and snow in the south, causing at least $15 billion in damage. There are fears of forest fires when the snow melts, because of the damage it did to the 10% of the trees. In some areas 90% of the forests were hurt. The “freak” winter weather in the south is the worst in 50 years. UN experts said it shows how the world must prepare for changing weather patterns brought on by global warming. (PlanetArk)

Madagascar hit by one of biggest cyclones ever; 60 dead
Cyclone Ivan struck the east coast of Madagascar, affecting more than 200,000 people, many of whom were still awaiting aid, officials said last week. At least 60 were reported dead. The island nation was victim to 6 cyclones last year, killing 150. Warming of the sea is expected to increase the intensity of cyclones, which some think is already happening. (PlanetArk)

Somaliland VP asks for drought aid to ‘avert calamity’
Suffering through a severe drought and drinking water shortage, Somaliland is calling for aid from rich nations and is asking its people to pray for rain. (PlanetArk)

Global Warming erasing Lake Mead

(Photo of receding Lake Mead from Flickr and Roadsidepictures.)

Xtreme Weather Watch: Lake Mead, the man-made lake behind the Hoover Dam that supplies much of the water for Southern California, could totally dry up in the next 13 years, according to a researcher at the University of California at San Diego. That would affect some 30 million people in the region. For the past two decades there were signs of an impending problem, with less snow pack and lower levels in lakes and rivers as a result of climate change and overuse. After a 10-year drought the problem today is urgent, with a net deficit of 1 million acre feet of water a year. Researcher Tim Barnett says it is too late to prevent a crisis, so adaptation is the only answer here. Desalination plants on the coast and water conservation are the most likely solutions. Agriculture uses 75-80% of the water and is the No. 1 industry in California. (Newsweek)

Ocean water pumped up to Andes mines as rivers dry up
Mines high in the Andes of Peru and Chile are pumping water from the ocean because rivers are running dry. Chronic water shortages have become worse due to global warming and the melting of glaciers. The ocean water is desalinated and pumped 6,000-7,500 feet up, to furnish the metal mines and refineries on which the two countries’ economies depend. (PlanetArk)

Chile has worst drought in decades; officials give out water
In what some say is the worst drought in 80 years, wells are running dry in the south- central part of Chile, affecting 120,000 people, ruining crops and killing livestock. To avert disaster, the government has installed tanks and sends trucks once a week to fill them with water. Neighboring Bolivia, meanwhile, is inundated with rain. (PlanetArk)

Snow blanketed Jerusalem last week

Xtreme Weather Watch: A rare winter storm shut roads and schools and brought cities to a grinding halt in the Middle East last week – though children enjoyed throwing snowballs and using makeshift sleds. The roads were empty at rush hour in Jerusalem, banks closed in Damascus, and torrential rain and hail pummeled Beirut. In Ramallah, some told reporters they had never seen snow before. Jerusalem sees it a couple of times a year, but it usually is light and melts right away. On Thursday there were several inches on the ground for the second day. (Agence France-Presse, New York Times, Daily Mail UK, Reuters)

Afghanistan suffered severe cold and snow in January, leaving more than 100 people and 35,000 cattle dead. As if they didn’t already have enough problems. Roads were blocked by avalanches and three regions were inaccessible to rescue workers for some time. (PlanetArk)

Strong winds pushed Lake Erie up 9 feet at Buffalo last week, then the lake sloshed back to its normal position. But it was enough to suggest what weird things could happen if our climate goes berserk. (New York Times)

eMailbag: John from Indiana writes: “We had another winter tornado in Evansville this week. That is the third since 2003. Never had one before.”

Comment: Skeptics say cold and blizzards fly in the face of global warming. It’s the extremes, stupid – both wet and dry, and hot and cold. Unusual record-breaking weather events are predicted for the future, and to some extent the future is already here.

Extreme weather events were up in 2007

Xtreme Weather Watch: There was an increase in extreme weather events last year worldwide, mainly winds and floods, reflecting the threat posed by global warming, says the UN-backed Centre of Research on Disaster Epidemiology. Eight of the 10 worst disasters were in Asia, including Cyclone Sidr. Asia and West Africa are already having more severe and frequent floods, following predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Weather disasters cost $62.5 billion in damages in 2007, up from $34 billion the year before. About 200 million people were affected, half of them in China. (PlanetArk)

Southern California was slammed by 7 days of snow and rain last week, stranding thousands of motorists in a mountain pass and causing power outages, avalanches and at least 1 tornado. Nearly a foot of snow fell in the Los Padres National Forest, northwest of LA, in the first of 2 back-to-back storms. In the second storm, this weekend, 2-4 inches of rain fell, raising the risk of mudslides in areas denuded by last year’s wildfires. Last Thursday more rain fell in one day than in the entire year in many places, but officials said they did not think it would do much to relieve a severe water shortage. (MercuryNews.com, LA Times, AP, North County Times, PlanetArk)

Severe winter storms, the worst in decades, swept across southern China late last week, killing at least 50, leaving cities without electricity, and halting travel for hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions. A half-million migrant workers, hoping to get home for Chinese New Year, camped outside the train station in Guangzhou for days, before most gave up. Hunan province had its heaviest snow in half a century. and more was expected. The extreme winter weather has so far caused $3 billion in losses, officials said.(AP)

Devastating floods in Mozambique displaced tens of thousands of people, engulfed farms and destroyed bridges and roads. The heavy rains started earlier than predicted and, with water levels already high, floods could turn out to be more severe than in 2000-01, which was the worst in memory for the African country. Helicopters and boats rescued about 60,000, mostly from roofs and trees, as another 7,000 awaited rescue last week. (PlanetArk)

For more on climate change and weather, check out the Forecast Earth blog at the Weather Channel, Weather.com.

Next president's views on climate change

Weekly angst: Global Warming is not the hot topic it should be at campaign appearances and televised debates (blame the moderators for that). But many of the candidates have clearly stated their positions. Let’s look at the key issues and see where the 4 most viable candidates in each party stand.

CAP-AND-TRADE:
Hillary Clinton: 80% cut by 2050 (from 1990 level), with allowances sold at auction
Barak Obama: 80% cut by 2050 (from 1990 level), with allowances sold at auction
John Edwards: 80% cut by 2050 (from 1990 level), with allowances sold at auction
Bill Richardson: 90% cut by 2050 (from 2006 level), with allowances sold at auction
John McCain: supports mandatory cap-and-trade, was lead author of a bill asking 65% by 2050, no comment on auction vs. free credits.
Mike Huckabee: supports mandatory cap-and-trade (no specifics), no comment on auction vs. free
Rudy Giuliani: opposes mandatory cap-and-trade
Mitt Romney: would consider only if global

RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY STANDARD (RES):
Clinton: 25% by 2025
Obama: 25% by 2025
Edwards: 25% by 2025
Richardson: 30% by 2020, 50% by 2040
McCain: opposed 10% RES in 2005, opposed cloture on 2007 bill
Huckabee: 15% by 2020, but include nuclear power and clean coal
Giuliani: opposes
Romney: no position

FUEL ECONOMY STANDARD
Clinton: 40 mpg 2020, 55 mpg 2030
Obama: 56 mpg 2026
Edwards: 40 mpg 2016
Richardson: 50 mpg 2020
McCain: supports, but no specifics
Huckabee: 35 mpg 2020
Giuliani: opposes standards
Romney: opposes as stand-alone

NEW COAL PLANTS
Clinton: phased-in requirement that new plants capture carbon
Obama: would consider moratorium if mandatory cap doesn’t slow construction
Edwards: moratorium for plants that don’t capture and store carbon
Richardson: New plants can't emit more carbon than advanced natural gas plants
McCain: supports use of conventional coal
Huckabee: supports conventional coal
Giuliani: supports conventional coal
Romney: supports conventional coal

LIQUID COAL
Clinton: supports if can cut carbon pollution 20% below gasoline
Obama: supports if carbon pollution 20% below gasoline
Edwards: opposes investment
Richardson: opposes investment
McCain: no position
Huckabee: supports
Giuliani: supports
Romney: supports

NUCLEAR ENERGY
Clinton: focus on renewables, but don’t rule out
Obama: focus on renewables, might pursue if waste and safety problems resolved
Edwards: no more nuclear plants
Richardson: should be part of the mix
McCain: should be part of mix
Huckabee: safety concerns mostly unfounded
Giuliani: convinced, based on consulting, that plants can be secure
Romney: develop more aggressively, re-process spent fuel like French

ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Clinton: Reduce 20% from projected levels by 2020
Obama: Reduce intensity 50% by 2030
Edwards: Reduce electricity consumption 15% by 2018
Richardson: 20% increase in productivity by 2020
McCain: supports – no target
Huckabee: supports – no target
Giuliani: opposes mandatory standards
Romney: supports – no target

Global Warming and specific solutions need to be a greater part of the campaign. It’s up to us to ask questions of the candidates to let them know how important this is to us as voters – and to ask for a change of position when we think a candidate’s stance is too soft. For more on the candidates’ views, go to http://www.lcv.org/voterguide.
(Sources: League of Conservation Voters, candidates’ Web sites, New York Times, Los Angeles Times)

Taking stock of where we are

2007 year of acknowledging Global Warming: top stories

* The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change releases 4 reports that clearly establish there IS Global Warming and it’s already doing damage.
* Arctic summer ice is less than half what it was in 2006, Greenland loses 19 billion tons more than its previous record and West Antarctica shows large-scale melt, leading top NASA scientist James Hansen to predict we may have passed a “tipping point.”
* Extreme weather hits many parts of the world, including the U.S. where record droughts cause water shortages in the West and Southeast. Wildfires ravage California, and floods swamp Texas, as well as Britain and much of Asia. Australia has the drought of the century and parts of Europe suffer a searing heat wave. In August, 100 all-time heat records are broken around the world. 2007 is the warmest year ever in the Northern Hemisphere.
* China becomes the 800-pound gorilla, likely passing up the U.S. at top emitter of greenhouse gases and building 1-2 new coal plants a week. Demand for oil helps raise prices to near $100 a barrel.
* New Australian prime minister signs the Kyoto Protocol, leaving the U.S. the only industrialized country not to commit to reducing GHG by 2012.
* The U.S. Supreme Court rules that GHG are pollutants under the Clean Air Act and can be regulated by the EPA. But the EPA denies California a waiver to regulate tailpipe emissions, effectively blocking 16 other states.
* The Bush Administration prevents the international conference in Bali from setting specific goals for worldwide carbon cuts.
* Congress passes corporate average fuel ecomony (CAFE) standards of 35 mpg by 2020 and a 5-fold increase in biofuels by 2022, but fails to get enough Senate votes for renewable electricity standards (RES) and tax credit shifts from oil to renewables.
* Cities and states take matters into their own hands, as New York City announces a bold climate plan to reduce GHG 30% by 2030, including a proposal for fees on cars driving into traffic-strangled Manhattan. Chicago awaits unveiling of its massive Climate Action Plan, which will focus heavily on retrofitting buildings to conserve energy. Various states set their own goals, join regional cap-and-trade agreements, and pass RES laws. The Northeast and West lead.
* A worldwide explosion in demand for corn ethanol and other biofuels leads to more deforestation and rising food prices.
* The Energy Independence Act of 2007, a bi-partisan bill by Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.) passes out of committee, a milestone because it advocates specific GHG cuts and a cap-and-trade system.
* The Nobel Peace Prize rewards IPCC and Al Gore for their work on Global Warming.

2008 watch: What the U.S. needs to do now to make a difference

*Elect a president who not only cares about Global Warming but will take strong action and lead – both the country and the world.
*Elect a Congress that will act on Global Warming on behalf of the people and planet – not on behalf of Big Oil, Big Coal and other fossil fuel interests. We need 60 votes in the Senate.
*Extend incentives for alternative energy sources, like wind and solar, so they will grow far beyond the puny 2 or 3% of our power they are now. Commit to research on innovative sources of clean energy. Pass an RES bill to force electric power companies to begin using renewable resources.
*Test carbon capture and get it into commercial production as soon as possible. So far, it’s the best way to have “clean coal” and coal is likely to be with us awhile. Stop building new coal plants until they can be clean.
*Work with the rest of the world to quickly set targets for cutting greenhouse gases after 2012, transfer clean-energy technology to developing countries to stop the fossil-fueled boom, stop deforestation, and be much less wasteful.
*Force the EPA to protect, not prostitute, the environment.

News in brief

States sue EPA for denying their right to cut tailpipe emissions
16 states sued the EPA Jan. 2 for refusing California a waiver to restrict CO2 emissions from cars and trucks. The action affected other states as well, because under the Clean Air Act they can adopt either federal or California pollution standards, and many had passed and were waiting to enforce the California tailpipe rules. The EPA’s rationale was that the new federal Energy Bill, mandating 35 mpg fuel economy by 2020, trumps any state tailpipe laws. The California restrictions are stricter than those in the Energy Bill. EPA staff reportedly said California would likely win a lawsuit to reverse the EPA administrator’s decision, but that an auto industry suit would have lost if EPA had granted the waiver. California Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown called the decision “shocking in its incoherence and utter failure to provide legal justification.” Joining California in the suit were Ariz., Conn., Del., Ill., Mass., Maine, Md., N.J., N.M., N.Y., Ore., Pa., R.I., Vt. and Wash. The timing of the decision (Dec. 19), right after President Bush signed the Energy Bill, raised suspicion a deal was cut with the auto companies to give them the lesser of two evils. (PlanetArk, Los Angeles Times)

Huge Global Warming teach-in will focus nation on climate
After nearly two years of preparation, Focus the Nation will sponsor a nationwide teach-in at more than 1,000 colleges, high schools and other institutions Jan. 31, to get young people more involved in solving the climate change problem. More than 10,000 volunteers will participate in what the group calls “the biggest teach-in in history.” They’re still looking for teachers, principals and students to take part. Lesson plans are available at http://wwwclimaechangeeducation.org. To get involved or learn more, go to http://www.focusthenation.org. (Source: Focus the Nation)

Low-emission locomotives introduced last month in Texas
Union Pacific put 98 low-emission locomotives into service in December with a $75 million grant from the state of Texas. Multiple diesel engines are turned on and off depending on the load, with an estimated 30% saving in fuel, according to the railroad. Also, nitrogen oxide (a GHG) and particulate matter would be reduced as much as 63%. (Source: Greenwire)

Xtreme weather watch

2008 will be slightly cooler than last year but still in the top 10 warmest years since 1850, British researchers forecast last week. The cooling off is due in large part to a very strong La Niña, England’s Met Office and experts from the University of East Anglia said. A warming trend remains and once La Niña subsides, temperatures should sharply increase, they said. (PlanetArk)

A ferocious Arctic storm pounded California over the weekend, with another storm expected Tuesday. Heavy rain and hurricane-force winds caused power to go out for 1.3 million people in Northern California, as well as some in Oregon and Washington. Thousands in Southern California were told to evacuate canyons where mudslides could be a problem after last year’s fires. The Sierra Nevada mountains were expected to get up to 10 feet of show. Winds gusted up to 70 mph on the Golden Gate bridge and a levee broke in Nevada flooding hundreds of homes. (Associated Press, SFGate, LA Times)

China is suffering its worst drought in a decade, leaving millions short of drinking water and destroying crops. Authorities had to release water from the huge 3 Gorges Dam to help cargo ships stranded in the Yangtze. Worst hit is the usually humid south. China is often plagued by floods and droughts, but meteorologists blame global climate change for increasingly extreme weather. (PlanetArk)

Erratic rain has damaged Brazil's coffee crop. Premature rains, followed by an unusual dry period and then a delayed rainy season has cut the 2008-09 coffee crop 15%, the Costa Rican Coffee Institute said. If the drought had lasted a week longer, the damage would have been even greater, they said. (PlanetArk)

Postscript
Kudos to Rick Telander, sports columnist in the Chicago Sun-Times, who used his whole column Friday to write about Global Warming. He reached a new audience that isn’t usually paying attention. The sports tie-in was that it affects activities like fishing, hunting and skiing. But clearly he’s alarmed by what’s happening and wanted to help spread the word.

Good and bad about energy bill, Bali

Weekly Angst I: The Energy Bill is half-full

Half an energy bill was signed by the president today, after final House approval Tuesday (314-100). Gone are the mandate for renewable energy and money to support it. Left in are increased auto fuel economy and biofuel production.

The bill was stripped down after the Senate failed last week by just one vote to approve cloture (avert a filibuster) and send a stronger bill to the floor for passage. My question about that is: Where was McCain? His was the lone missing vote and could have made the difference. That’s the Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) who championed Global Warming legislation for the past three years. He’s also the same John McCain who’s trying to get the Republican nomination for president – so perhaps that weakened his resolve. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) reportedly was absent too, but gave her proxy to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and recorded a yea vote.

Press Secretary Dana Perino said Tuesday the White House should get much of the credit for the bill that passed, because it had pushed for both higher fuel economy and alternative fuels.

What we got … and didn’t
So, what did we get from the energy bill finally approved 86-8 by the Senate last week and then by the House Tuesday?
* Corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards of 35 mpg by 2020 (though actually a credit for flex-fuel cars brings it down just below 34 mpg). This is the first increase in 30 years.
* A renewable fuels standard (RFS) calling for 36 billion gallons of biofuels by 2022, with 21 billion in “advanced” fuels such as cellulosic, which is much cleaner than corn ethanol.
* Energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances; phase-out of incandescent light bulbs.
* Training for “green jobs” and enhanced research into carbon capture.
The bill will reportedly cut oil use by 2.8 million barrels a day by 2020.

What we didn’t get was a requirement that investor-owned utilities get 15% of their power from renewable sources such as wind, solar and geothermal by 2020 (though actually it was only 11% because they could buy credits for 4%). We also didn’t get a $22 billion tax package, with $13 billion in new taxes for Big Oil and incentives for renewable sources of power and plug-in hybrids. Clearly the loss of those provisions will be a drag on the shift from fossil fuels to clean energy, which now provides just a tiny part of our power. Thankfully, about 20 states now have their own RES. It’s time for others to step up and fill in the gap. And Dem leaders say they will try again with RES and the tax package after the first of the year.

If you want to read the bill, go to http://www.thomas.gov and search by the number of the bill, which is H.R.6.EAS2.

Weekly angst II: Bali agreement half-empty

Well, we showed ‘em. We didn’t let those bullying Europeans and Chinese make us commit to industrialized countries aiming for a cut in greenhouse gases of 25-40% by 2020 and 50% by 2050. In the end, the agreement simply said everyone agreed there should be “deep cuts” in GHG emissions. But in return for that concession, we agreed – after being booed and hissed at by developing countries – to stop demanding a stronger commitment by those countries at this time. U.S. delegates made the decision under pressure, without checking with Washington.

By the next day, U.S. Press Secretary Dana Perino was backtracking. She said the administration had “serious concerns” about the global consensus reached by the 190 participating countries at the Bali conference, and that the largest developing countries (read China and India) must be willing to do far more if there is to be an international agreement in 2009. Those countries look for the developed countries to make the biggest cuts and to help them with technology.

At the conference, which went into overtime to craft any agreement at all, the U.S. delegation was joined by Canada, Japan and Russia in its desire to avoid specific targets and a specific timetable. In the final hours, amid boos, tears and threats, a Harvard-educated delegate from Papua New Guinea won applause when he told the United States to lead or “get out of the way.”

The administration position was countered at the conference by three American VIPs who called for stronger action – Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) (is he running or not?) and former VP Al Gore (D), fresh from picking up his Nobel Peace Prize. Gore told the conference the U.S. position would change with the next election, so to work around President Bush over the next year.

What was accomplished?
There was general agreement at Bali that:
• A successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol would be completed by 2009.
• There must be deep cuts in GHG emissions.
• Rich countries would provide money for adaptation to climate change in poor countries.
• Money would also go to preventing deforestation, cause of 20% of GHG emissions.
• New technologies would be transferred to developing countries to help them cut emissions.
(Weekly angst sources: E&E Daily, E&E News PM, Sunday Telegraph UK, The Guardian UK, New York Times, Sierra Club)

Take Action

Contact your Senators and either thank them for voting for cloture in order to try to pass a strong energy bill with clean energy tax incentives or express displeasure at their voting against cloture. All Democrats except Mary Landrieu (La.) voted for cloture, which would have blocked a filibuster and allowed the bill to go forward. Republicans voting for cloture were Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Richard Lugar (Ind.), Charles Grassley (Iowa), Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins (both Maine), Norm Coleman (Minn.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), John Thune (S.D.), and Orin Hatch (Utah). All other Republicans voted against it, except McCain, who was absent. Snowe, Collins, Coleman, Smith and Thune also voted for cloture the first time, when RES was included in the bill, so they deserve special thanks. Go on their individual Web sites or call the Congressional Switchboard at (202)224-3121.

News in brief

Earth may have reached a tipping point, NASA scientists say
Arctic summer ice may be gone by 2012, and the world’s ice sheets are now thawing so fast they may have reached a tipping point where significant melting and rising seas are inevitable, two NASA scientists told the American Geophysical Union last week. NASA data show Arctic summer ice shrank to less than half what it was last year and the Greenland ice sheet melted nearly 19 billion tons more than the previous record. There is also evidence of large-scale melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet. “If we stopped adding greenhouse gases today, we would still get large climate impacts, including a substantial sea level rise,” warned NASA’s James Hansen. NASA’s Josefino Comiso agreed, “It’s likely the tipping point for perennial ice has been reached.” A third scientist, Richard Alley of Penn State, was not sure a tipping point had been reached, but said it was not far off. (Sources: Greenwire, AP, International Herald Tribune)

Dem candidates lead Republicans in environmental voting
With the primaries looming, the League of Conservation Voters has released its 2008 candidates’ scorecard. Barak Obama leads, with a rating of 96 for his lifetime voting record on the environment, followed by Dennis Kucinich with 92; Hillary Clinton, 90; Joe Biden 84; Bill Richardson, 82; Chris Dodd 77, and John Edwards 59. Edwards was the first to come out with a strong Global Warming plan, however. Among Republicans, Ron Paul scored 30, John McCain 26, and Fred Thompson 12. Other candidates doing well in national polls -- Rudolph Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee -- have no voting record on the environment. Obama, Clinton, Edwards and Richardson discuss environmental issues on a daily basis with voters, as does McCain, said LCV president Gene Karpinski. To learn more about the candidates’ views, go to http://www.lcv.org/voterguide. (Source: PlanetArk)

DOE raises questions about FutureGen project in Illinois
Tuesday morning, Mattoon, Ill., was named site of the long-awaited FutureGen project to test whether coal can produce power without pollution. Tuesday afternoon, the Department of Energy – which was absent from the press conference where industry partners announced the site – said it would have to reassess the project because its cost had exploded to $1.8 billion from $1 billion at the time DOE committed to paying 74% of the tab. Implicit was the possibility the private partners might have to pick up more of the cost. The demonstration plant is scheduled to use a gasification system, with resulting CO2 liquefied and pumped deep underground. FutureGen’s main goals are to see if the CO2 can be safely kept underground and to find ways to reduce the cost, estimated at 20-40% above standard coal-burning. Mattoon was chosen because of its geological qualities and ample water resources. FutureGen was scheduled to start operating in 2012 and would power 150,000 homes. DOE concerns, however, may cause more delays for the project. The Sierra Club called for no new coal-fired plants until FutureGen proves coal can be used cleanly. (Source: E&E News PM, Chicago Tribune, Sierra Club)

Xtreme weather watch

The decade ending in 2007 is warmest yet, a UN group reports.
The years 1998-2007 make up the hottest decade yet recorded, the World Meteorological Organization said last week. Another report, from the UK’s Met Office, said 11 of the past 13 years were the world’s hottest on record. (Greenwire, PlanetArk)

2007 is on track to have the most natural disasters, which have increased nearly 20% over last year. As of mid-October, 410 disasters had been recorded, “consistent with the trend of rising numbers of climate change-related disasters,” the Red Cross said. There were 427 disasters in all of 2006, that number a 70% increase over 2 years earlier, 2004. Disasters in the past decade exceeded those in the previous decade by 40%, while deaths doubled to 1.2 million, the report said. (Agence France-Presse, Greenwire)

An unusual December storm caused death and destruction in the Caribbean last week.Tropical storm Olga caused flash floods, killing at least 19 in the Dominican Republic, with scores missing and 35,000 left homeless. Tropical storms are unusual in December, because they feed on warm water. (PlanetArk)


HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO YOU ALL!
Earthling Angst will return in 2008. (It’s getting closer to 2012, 2020 and all those other targets, isn’t it?)

Global Warming win short-lived

Weekly angst: The victory in Congress didn’t last very long. A comprehensive energy bill to curb Global Warming passed the House on a 235-181 vote Thursday afternoon. But by Friday morning, opponents had defeated a cloture motion in the Senate, and negotiations were under way to strip the bill of some of its main provisions in order to get the 60 votes needed for passage and have a prayer of getting the president’s signature.

Likely to survive are the 35 mpg corporate fuel economy (CAFE) standards and the biofuels section (though that may be changed). Most likely to go are the requirement for private power plants to get 15% (actually just 11%) of their power from renewable sources like wind, solar and biomass by 2022 and the shift of $21 billion in tax breaks from oil and gas to renewable energy development and efficiency.

But without those provisions, how the devil will we make the switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy quickly enough to prevent catastrophic warming? Big oil, coal and power plants won this round and we lost. The fossil fuel economy is barely dented.

The cloture vote, which showed the votes aren't there to prevent a filibuster, put most Democrats on the right side of the issue and most Republicans on the side of fossil fuels. There were some exceptions. GOP Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins (Maine), Norm Coleman (Minn.), Arlen Spector (Pa.), Gordon Smith (Ore.) and John Thune (S.D.) voted with the good guys. (Collins, Coleman and Smith have tough re-election campaigns against Democrats next year). And Dems Evan Bayh (Ind.), Mary Landrieu (La.) and Richard Byrd (W.Va.) voted with the bad guys. If you live in any of their states, let them hear from you.

What was in the House bill
In addition to the 35 mpg CAFE standard for cars and light trucks combined in 2020, and the 15% RES for large investor-owned electric power plants (4 percentage points of which could come from buying offsets) the same year, the bill included:
• A nearly 5-fold increase in biofuels, to 36 billion gallons in 2022, with 21 billion from “advanced” (mostly cellulosic) fuels that cut GHG 50-60% (as opposed to corn, which cuts very little).
• A $21 billion tax package with $13 in new taxes (or eliminated tax breaks) for oil and gas, and incentives for energy efficiency in buildings, appliances, furnaces and lighting, renewable energy sources and plug-in hybrid cars.
• Increased testing of carbon capture and sequestration, the main hope for “clean” coal.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was credited with tough negotiations (mainly with fellow Democrats) to get such a strong bill approved.

The importance of CAFE
The 35 mpg CAFE standard would cut oil consumption by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2020, or the equivalent of taking 28 million cars off the road. This is the first move to raise mileage standards since the oil crisis of the 1970s. In fact, by 1988, with the crisis behind us, the auto companies were building larger cars again and were allowed to meet a 27.5 mpg standard, not the scheduled 28.5. That, of course, didn’t include SUVs, which are classified as light trucks and have a 22 mpg standard. Why is CAFE politically acceptable this year? We can probably thank the lofty price of oil. People are ready to save money at the pump. And the auto industry and UAW were won over by concessions granted to their champion, House Energy Chair John Dingell (D -Mich.), in the form of flex-fuel credits and money to retool.

Efforts to salvage renewables and taxes
Sen. Energy Chair Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) and Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) said Friday they would negotiate through the weekend in an effort to find some middle ground and salvage the RES and tax portions of the bill – at least partially. They need an additional 7 votes. While 20 states already have their own renewable electricity standards, the Southeast and some Midwest states are concerned they don’t have enough wind to meet the standard. One GOP Senator suggested a much smaller tax package might be OK’d. A chief opponent, the retiring and ill Sen. Pete Domenici (N.M.), ranking member of the Energy Committee, wants nuclear loan guarantees in the bill and reportedly prevailed on fellow Republicans to oppose the bill passed by the House.

Bush veto threat
A final concern, of course, is a presidential veto. Bush doesn’t like the $13 billion in oil and gas taxes or the renewable fuels provision. He wants to include coal-based transportation fuels (which release more CO2 than gasoline) and to pre-empt state laws on alternative fuels. Many in Congress would like to see CAFE standards and energy efficiency, at least, signed into law.

Next step
The aim is to come up with a bill that can pass the Senate with at least 60 votes, and has some chance of getting the president’s signature. Once passed by the Senate, it will have to go back to the House for a vote. Leadership wants to accomplish this before the planned Congressional recess on Dec. 22.
(Sources: PlanetArk, Greenwire, E&E News PM, The End of Nature by Bill McKibben)

Congressional round-up

Lieberman-Warner bill passed out of Boxer's committee
In another milestone this week, the Senate passed its first mandatory cap-and-trade bill out of Sen. Barbara Boxer’s (D-Calif.) Environment and Public Works Committee by an 11-8 vote. The compromise bill, which most environmentalists think is too weak, and opponents think is too strong, will now go to the floor for what promises to be a lively debate, though no one is saying when. The bill covers 80% of the economy, mandating 70% in GHG cuts by 2050. The vast majority of allowances would be given to industries that will be affected, with only a small portion auctioned. Fee credits will be phased out by 2031.

News in brief

Green economy will result in more jobs, studies say
The move from a fossil-fuel to a “green” economy will have a net worldwide job gain, according to a new UN report. In addition to “green collar” jobs, there will be construction, transportation, engineering, manufacturing and sustainable agriculture and forestry jobs, the report said. In Brazil, the ethanol business has created a half-million jobs, and in China 150,000 are employed in solar heating. The jobs will more than make up for layoffs in old fossil-fuel industries, showing a small net gain, the report said. A second study, by the American Solar Energy Society, estimates that in the U.S., policies favoring renewable energy sources and energy efficiency could produce 40 million new jobs and $4.5 trillion in new revenue by 2030. Most of the jobs, 32 million, would be in efficiency measures such as retrofitting buildings, while 8 million would be in the renewables sector, with solar, wind, ethanol and hydrogen cells seeing the most growth. (Source: Greenwire)

Tropical zones expanding as the Earth gets warmer
Tropical regions are pushing north and south toward the poles at a rate much faster than expected. In the past 25 years, they have moved 2.5 degrees latitude, or 140-330 miles, according to a study in the journal Nature Geoscience last week. Climate models had predicted it would take 100 years to move just 2 degrees. The expansion brings with it a shift in high-altitude wind and rain patterns, and affects agricultural zones and water availability. (Source: Greenwire)

Skiers, marchers, bikers protest against climate change
Protestors called attention to Global Warming Sunday in 50 cities around the world. In Berlin, a sculptor carved a polar bear in ice at the Brandenburg Gate. In Auckland, 350 formed “Climate SOS” by lying in the grass at a park. In Taipei, 1,500 marched with signs saying “No carbon dioxide.” In Manila, hundreds rallied with windmills on their heads. In Helsinki, 50 skied on asphalt streets saying, “Give us our snowy winters back.” And here in the U.S., 50 took a polar bear plunge into Walden Pond. (Source: Associated Press)

News from Bali

Climate scientists lose patience, plead for radical action
More than 215 leading climate scientists, some of whom have taken no stance up to now, petitioned the delegates at the Bali UN climate conference to halve global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The petitioners come from more than 2 dozen countries. “The science community is basically fed up,” one signer from Canada told the Associated Press.

Other headlines this first week of the Dec. 3-14 190-nation conference:
* Saving rainforests is a high priority but one about which there is disagreement. The conference is likely to launch pilot projects trying two approaches – trading on the carbon market and using a fund to compensate countries for stopping slash-and-born. Deforestation was not in the Kyoto Protocol but causes 20% of GHG worldwide. Many want it in the next international treaty.
* Carbon capture is not on the Bali agenda. The technology is still unproven and would cost about $1 billion per plant, though ultimately it may be the answer to low- or no-carbon use of coal. Perhaps carbon capture and storage will be part of future talks, Yvo de Boer, top UN climate official, told Reuters.
* The U.S. delegation continues to oppose mandatory cuts of GHG, and made light of the passage of the first cap-and-trade bill from committee onto the Senate floor last week. The National Environmental Trust blasted U.S. greed and waste, saying the country is responsible for 27.8% of cumulative Global Warming.
* Host country Indonesia planted millions of trees to offset the estimated 47,000 tons of carbon dioxide caused by the 12-day conference. The estimate includes air transport to and from Bali. Hosts also eliminated cars from the conference site and provided 200 bicycles for ministers to use if they didn’t want to walk. (Sources: PlanetArk, AP, India Times)

Xtreme weather watch

Rainfall and snowstorms are now more severe. Since 1948, the number of intense storms has increased between 22-26% in the U.S., a new report from Environment America shows. New England and the mid-Atlantic states have been hit the worst. Mass., R.I., Vt., N.Y. and La. have all seen an increase of more than 50%. Climate scientists say this is consistent with Global Warming because warm air holds more moisture. For more, see http://environmentAmerica.org. (New York Times)

Did a cyclone just hit the Northwest? Heavy rain and hurricane-force winds of up to 129 mph hit Oregon and Washington in back-to-back storms last Sunday and Monday. In Bremerton, Wash., rainfall was recorded at 11.78 inches. The storms, which washed out roads, caused mudslides, and resulted in at least 5 deaths, were among the worst in memory. More than 100,000 people were without electricity. One Portland resident noted, “This was really a hurricane – or cyclone – and we never get those here.” (AP)

The cyclone that swamped low-lying Bangladesh last month left a huge humanitarian crisis, the UN said last week. Some 2 million residents need immediate help to save their lives. They need food, shelter, drinking water and sanitation. A total of 8.5 million were affected, more than a half-million homes were completely destroyed and 1.5 million livestock were wiped out. Cyclone Sidr hit with 155 mph winds and a 5-foot storm surge Nov. 15. International aid so far tops $143 million. (PlanetArk)

Take Action

In this season of packages and bags and wrapping paper, think green. Carry one or more canvas or reusable bags with you to put your purchases in. Tell store clerks to keep their paper and plastic bags. Use recycled wrapping paper. And when possible re-use packaging that comes to you from online or catalog items.

Make a year-end donation to environmental groups that do research and fight the good fight for all of us – in Congress, statehouses, elections and courts. They include the Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, League of Conservation Voters, Environmental Defense, World Wildlife Federation and Union of Concerned Scientists. And that doesn’t exhaust the list, if you have another favorite. Without them, there would be little, if any, progress.